Created by the rather aptly name and eponymous Colin Victory, Victory Picks is a new to the market horse racing tipster service. It boasts of some rather substantial earnings over the last 6 months.
What does the product offer?
The sales material for Victory Picks is rather short and I am at odds as to whether or not this is a blessing or a curse. On the one hand, it allows you to quickly and easily get a grasp of what you can expect from the product. That having been said, where there are gaps in information is incredibly frustrating to deal with. This wouldn’t be a problem if these gaps were small, but if you are informed, there are swathes of details which are missing.
This puts me on a bit of a back foot with Victory Picks. For example, Colin Victory talks a little bit about his past as a tipster. He supposedly operated a service that was advertised in the Racing Post a few years back. “But time have moved on so [has Colin Victory]”. Of course this claim is entirely unsubstantiated. There is no way of going back and finding this ad in back issues of the Racing Post and we aren’t told anything about this. This doesn’t seem like a big thing but some indication of past results do help to complete the picture.
Moving onto the logistical side of Victory Picks, it is actually a rather interesting set up. According to Colin Victory, each day will be a 0 bet day, a 2 bet day or a 4 bet day. Emails are sent out to subscribers the evening before any races and this will detail the bets that are to be placed. So far, this is all pretty vanilla however when you start to look at the bets themselves, Victory Picks stands out from the crowd a little more.
I have already highlighted that Colin Victory refers to his days based around the number of bets that you can expect. What I haven’t touched upon is that Victory Picks is based around backing multiple horses in the same race. This means that on a 4 bet day (the most common outcome) you will be betting on just two races. Typically Victory Picks will advise of a horse with lower odds which is to be backed as a win bet and a horse with longer odds which should be backed each way. The gap in odds between the advised bets can vary hugely.
All of this brings me to the staking plan which I can see getting quite risky. Not so much because of what you are betting. Colin Victory recommends backing win bets advised by Victory Picks at 2 points and 1 point each way. This means 4 points per race and no more than 8 points per day. If Victory Picks has a long losing streak though, it can massively impact your betting bank. To date, the longest losing streak that Victory Picks has encountered is 15 bets which means 30 points. This isn’t bank shattering, but it also a not inconsiderable amount of money.
All of this brings me to the strike rate for Victory Picks which has rather interestingly not been published, nor have there been any claims made. This hasn’t however stopped me using Victory Picks’s proofing to calculate some results. Of 898 bets that were placed, 580 of them were losing bets. 63 were logged as stake returned which suggests to me that they were losing bets. This kind of thing is also usually limited to certain special events etc. which suggests to me that not everybody will get them. With that in mind, I have decided to consider this a loss. Of the winning bets, 90 of them were direct wins whilst another 165 bets won through a horse backed each way placing. This means that the effective strike rate for Victory Picks is 28.4% of bets actively producing a win of some sort.
How does the product work?
Not surprisingly, there is a distinctive lack of information made available when it comes to the how of Colin Victory’s bets being selected. This is a prime example of where lack of information becomes particularly problematic in my book. I always believe that as a consumer you should have enough information available to make an informed decision about your purchase. Victory Picks simply doesn’t allow this.
I also believe that in the case of Victory Picks, that problem is naturally exasperated by the fact that you are picking longer odds. Honestly, I have seen far too many services which claim to focus on value fold to know that unless there is a definitive selection process in place, there is a high risk. The fact of the matter is that any Tom, Dick and Harry can pick a load of 10/1 and above horses and hope for a couple to come in. I know this is something of an oversimplification, but I think that it is also something that is easy to forget.
What is the initial investment?
There are 3 different lengths of subscription available for Victory Picks. The first of these is a monthly subscription which comes in at £20 per month. The next option is a quarterly subscription which represents better value at £40 per month. Finally, you can sign up to Victory Picks for a whole year for a cost of just £80 which is clearly the best value saving an incredible £160 on the monthly option.
There are multiple guarantees in place for Victory Picks as well. The first is that Colin Victory offers a 60 day money back guarantee for Victory Picks. Because it is sold through Clickbank as well, you shouldn’t have any problems claiming this. As well as this, Colin Victory also says that if you encounter a losing month with Victory Picks, you will get another month added on to your existing package.
What is the rate of return?
The core claim surrounding Victory Picks is that Colin Victory has made £11.911. This sounds impressive on the face of things however I do feel that this needs to be placed into some context. The total points profit actually stands at 238.23 points which sounds somewhat less impressive. This means that if you were aiming to get the figure that is used in the sales material, you would have to bet £50 per point or £200 per day.
On the surface of things, Victory Picks looks like a product that may have some potential. The results are realistic enough and there is full proofing provided. These are both very strong points and I won’t try and argue that they do make Victory Picks a more favourable proposition than some services. This isn’t the entire picture however and there are a few things that I wish to address before I make up my mind.
The first thing that I want to look at is the claimed profit. In many respects, the figures are all reasonable. £50 per point seems reasonable, but when you start to put it into context, I am less inclined to believe that the set up is good. So when I talked about the losing streak of 30 points before, this means that you would actually be looking at losses of £1,500 to the recommended stakes. Whilst I can appreciate that you would have a theoretical betting bank of £5,000, I don’t believe that this is within the realm of possibility for most people.
I am also not keen on the fact that there is no information on the selection process. I am aware that there has to be leeway on this, I am far from naïve. This means that I will on occasion let this go but in the case of Victory Picks, I simply can’t. The core premise of Victory Picks isn’t anything new but as I must reiterate that it has to be built on a very genuine understanding of horse racing. I don’t believe that the strike rate demonstrates beyond reasonable doubt that this is the case.
At the back end of things, there are some interesting points to be made however there are much worse services available. The vendor behind Victory Picks has launched a new product each year. These all make very similar claims to Colin Victory as well. Both of these did not do particularly well and due to the various similarities, I am inclined to believe that Victory Picks will go the same way.
With all of this in mind, I simply can’t see anything about Victory Picks that I would want to recommend. Those who are perhaps more willing to engage in risk may want to take advantage of the fact that Colin Victory is offering a 60 day money back guarantee (an increasingly rare thing). This would only seem to fit the marketer behind Victory Picks’s modus operandi however with previous users of his services claiming that after purchase they were receiving emails every few hours promoting other services.