Back The Draw Review

Back The Draw is a brand new sports betting tipster service that is operated by one John Berry. He claims that his strategy for football betting will allow you to produce some strong profits taking advantage of a value betting market.

Introduction to Back The Draw

When somebody talks to me about getting value from their bets, the last thing I would do is steer them towards football betting. Let’s be honest, getting value from football betting is rarer than a hen’s tooth. Unless of course you’re willing to put together the kind of silly bet that involves about 18 different moving parts. Be they ridiculously long form accas or they’re mired with conditions like Harry Kane to score in the first half, there to be less than 12 corners, and the Ref has had a corned beef sandwich for lunch. It’s hard out there.

This makes it quite interesting to me that John Berry is pushing a service that he claims provides value bets using a single, and simple, betting market. Namely, betting on draws. Now, this isn’t anything new. In actual fact, I’ve seen a lot of different betting systems that are based around this idea. In actual fact, it can be quite a solid approach under the right conditions. And this conditional statement is something that is quite important to note. Because… well, this a key area where this seems to be lacking a bit…

Original Link: http://backthedraw.co.uk/membership.html

The fact is that in my opinion, there are a lot of gaps in Back The Draw. John Berry is keen to talk up certain elements of what he is doing, but there isn’t a whole lot of substance behind it. And that is very concerning given the fact that this can end up a bit of a high stakes affair. So, is this just a high risk high reward tipster service? There are certainly plenty of those about. Or is it something a little bit more questionable than that? Let’s get into it and have a proper look.

What Does Back The Draw Offer?

When it comes to tipster services there are those that have a lot of structure, and there are those that don’t. Honestly, there are pros and cons to both approaches. Those that have fluidity rarely end up betting just for the sake of it. On the other hand, there can be a lot to say for knowing what you are going to get each week. At a glance, Back The Draw looks like latter, but there is actually a lot of weird structure to this.

In order to explain this, I have to look at the betting elements of the service first and foremost. And in order to provide full context for all of this, I have to start by talking about the volume of bets. An element that isn’t typically all that important. However, it is very clear that this guides everything that John Berry does with Back The Draw.

Each week, you may see anywhere from two selections all the way up to five. These are always for weekend games and cover a variety of leagues, although since the Premier League started that is where the focus is. This isn’t theoretically any sort of problem. I’d rather John Berry not advise bets to Back The Draw subscribers just for the sake of it. But it does add a lot of complication.

Now, the obvious takeaway from Back The Draw is that you are betting on a draw. That much is right there, in the name. But you aren’t just betting on individual draws. Instead, John Berry uses quite a convoluted approach. If there are two bets, you bet on each game, as well as a double of those two selections. This quickly scales with Trixies, Yankees, and even the occasional Canadian bet advised when there are 5 selections.

Of course, this has a huge impact on the stakes that you are betting. This “Profit Maximising Staking” as John Berry refers to it is a complicated affair. All of the singles he bets are backed to £20 stakes. Any doubles are to £10 stakes, then there is £8 per line if there is a Trixie, £3 per line on a Yankee (meaning £33 on those bets) and Canadians are backed to £1.50 per line meaning £39 on those. It all really adds up.

John Berry says that this isn’t as confusing as Back The Draw sounds, and in some respects, it isn’t. But it is still pretty bloody convoluted. It also means that on those maximum bet weeks, you’d be staking almost £150. Even on the weeks where there is a double you’re still looking at a minimum bet of £50. That isn’t prohibitive, but it’s also quite a lot.

The blunt fact of the matter is that if you’re using £10 per point stakes, you’d be looking at anywhere from 5 points to 14.9 points. That adds up. And it isn’t necessarily that it’s a huge amount compared to betting weekly, but it does feel quite “all your eggs in one basket”. If one element of Back The Draw fails, it has a knock on effect on everything.

I think that this is particularly pertinent against a background of a potentially quite low strike rate. Now, this is somewhat contrary to the claims that John Berry makes. He says that Back The Draw has a strike rate of 70% over the first five weeks, but I’m hugely sceptical of this number for two reasons. Firstly, even if you take it as gospel, that’s a small data sample size. But secondly, the only evidence backing this up are the same questionable Betfair screenshots I see every week. 

Last and probably least, I want to talk a little bit about how Back The Draw is managed. Honestly, this is about as bare bones as it comes. Selections are issued directly via email (as you’d probably expect) but the information contained within them is minimal at best. You get just enough detail to know what you’re betting on and that is about it unfortunately. 

How Does Back The Draw Work?

When it comes to how Back The Draw works, there are a few different elements in play. The most obvious one, I feel like I’ve already covered quite substantially. That is the incredibly elaborate approach to betting and staking that John Berry employs. Of course this application of betting isn’t inherently anything new. I’ve seen plenty of this kind of compounding of bets, however, as I often say, a staking plan does not a betting system make.

The reason I do say this is simple. You can have the most elaborate staking plan in the world, but if you don’t have a way to pick winners… well, you’re just not going to win is the long and short of it all. And with Back The Draw, I’m not certain that John Berry actually demonstrates that he does have a way of picking winners (well, draws if we’re pedantic). This is of course problematic.

Now, don’t get me wrong, we are told some things that imply there might be a system behind it. John Berry says that Back The Draw is based on “performance and also a statistical formula that [he’s] hit together over years of betting on football” and that it involves “looking at how often teams are creating chances against certain opponents against how other teams performed against them”. This kind of makes sense, but it seems to be almost purposefully vague in my opinion.

Adding to this, it isn’t exactly like we get anything in the way of comprehensive proofing for Back The Draw. The few bets that we are shown are all historic ones and are only the winners. Furthermore, they only cover 5 weeks of betting. This means that if you take everything on face value, the best case scenario is that there have been some winning bets. But that isn’t really a lot to put your faith in.

What is the Initial Investment?

If you want to sign up to Back The Draw there is only one option available. John Berry is asking for a one time cost of £37 (plus VAT) for which he says that you will get access to his bets for the rest of the 2021/22 season. This works out at about 7 months or so and as such really seems like a decent deal, although, I am less convinced.

Something that is undoubtedly worth noting with Back The Draw is that there is actually a full 30 day money back guarantee in place. This is backed up by the fact that John Berry is selling the service through Clickbank who are generally pretty good at making sure this sort of thing is honoured. Problematically though, this isn’t mentioned anywhere in the sales material. 

What is the Rate of Return?

John Berry claims that in 5 weeks of betting, they have produced an overall profit of £2,153.53. Unfortunately (or incredibly conveniently depending on how you want to look at it), there is no easy way of putting this into context because of that incredibly convoluted staking plan. Realistically, I feel like the best way of doing this is to count £20 as a point. That is what Back The Draw is shown to be based around on a single bet in the sales material.

Even with this higher than I would consider to be average stakes, that still puts Back The Draw at about 108 points of profit. In 5 weeks. To put that into perspective, there are plenty of tipsters who might consider this kind of result in 5 months to be a success. As such, John Berry is seemingly outperforming the competition by a very significant margin (that is of course backed up by questionable provenance).

Conclusion for Back The Draw

If I’m really honest, I find it hard to see much reason to like Back The Draw. Sure, the profits look good, but all of that hinges on John Berry’s ability to actually produce them. I’m not really convinced about this though. Probably not surprising given the fact that when you really put them under the microscope… well, the words “too good to be true” come to mind.

Then there is the lack of information on a selection process. This doesn’t always have to be a deal breaker, but with something like Back The Draw it sort of is to me, and here’s why. It’s all a question of likelihood. About 1 in 4 games will end as a draw (based off the last 5 or so seasons). That doesn’t seem like a bad bet, right? But John Berry is claiming to be able to pick out as many as 5 of those bets each week.

Do I believe it’s feasible? Yes, I can see that happening. Do I believe somebody who just basically says “Honest mate, I’ve got a strategy for picking them. What is it? I won’t tell you that. But here’s a list of bets that I placed over the last 5 weeks. What’s that? Bets for this week? Never heard of them”. I know that I’m being a bit farcical there but that is what Back The Draw is sold off the back of.

There is no insight into the selection process, all proofing is conveniently for games that have already happened, and the only thing that is really presented as a tangible selling point is the betting approach. That “Profit Maximiser Staking”. And that my friend is a huge problem for me in and of itself.

You see, sometimes, I look at a service and I find myself thinking that it looks like somebody has had an idea and worked backwards to develop an actual tipster service. That is what Back The Draw feels like. The staking plan seems like it’s actually quite clever. Bringing together bets into different accas, doubling up on best bets (although I want to highlight once again, best how?), maximising your profit.

The harsh reality though is that it does just overcomplicate things. And the sole reason that you’re supposed to really give that a go is because sometimes a Yankee comes in and nets you over a grand. Like happened before. You know, on the bet that has already happened… You can see where I’m going with that once again.

Now, to be fair to John Berry, Back The Draw is cheap. £37 for the rest of the season isn’t bad. But it does concern me greatly that the money back guarantee isn’t actually mentioned. For those who know, this will stand out immediately. Clickbank’s name is all over the sales page, and they offer this on almost all products sold through them. As such, I do have to question why this isn’t openly offered to customers. It’s almost like they’re trying to avoid refunds…

Here’s the thing, I can’t actually see much about Back The Draw to sing the praises of. About the best thing that I can probably say is that it’s cheap. But if you aren’t paying a lot of money for a bad product, you’re still paying for a bad product. That seems to be what is happening here with John Berry providing little of substance. With all of that in mind, I really can’t see much reason to recommend this.

 

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From: Simon Roberts