Beat the Favourite is a new to market tipster service from Pete Thompson. He claims that you can make some very substantial profits by, as the name of the service suggests, beating the favourite.
Introduction to Beat the Favourite
If you know betting and you look at the numbers side of things, it is widely accepted that betting on favourites simply isn’t the best way to go about making a profit. There are some very clear limitations to this approach. The two examples that always stick in my head are that (supposedly) only 1 in 3 favourites win their race. Despite this, to make a profit from favourites, you need to have a strike rate of 70%. That is quite the disconnect. Which is exactly why so many smart bettors will tend to ignore favourites.
Original Link: https://beatthefavourite.com/
It is with that in mind that today’s review subject, Beat the Favourite, stands out to me so much. Because this is a service that seems to be designed to overcome this shortcoming. Pete Thompson effectively takes the idea of backing a favourite off the table completely. If you aren’t in the know, that seems like a very stupid idea, but it is one that I know for a fact has merit. Namely because whilst I have seen a lot of profitable services that back outsiders, there aren’t many that show a profit backing favourites.
So far then, we have a bloody good start with Beat the Favourite. There is certainly a very well documented idea behind the service, and that is a great beginning. But then we start talking about the profits that Pete Thompson claims you can make. And things start to get even more intriguing. Because supposedly, in a matter of less than 6 months, there has supposedly been profits in excess of £20,000. That is a massive amount of money. But is everything here as it seems? With a lot to talk about, let’s get into it.
What Does Beat the Favourite Offer?
When it comes to looking at a tipster service that I know is genuine, there are a few things that I tend to look for before writing anything out. One of the main things that I like to investigate is what kind of tipster are you dealing with? Is Pete Thompson willing to be flexible or is Beat the Favourite a service that is set in concrete.
The answer here seems to be somewhere in the middle. Which is exactly what I would hope to see. It is quite apparent that there isn’t betting simply for the sake of betting with Beat the Favourite. But by the same token, Pete Thompson has a solid plan in place and he sticks to it. Of course, that doesn’t pay off every time, but that structure of management is a strong positive.
With that said, that is where I want to start. By talking about what exactly you are getting from Beat the Favourite as a tipster service. This is an area where I think that Pete Thompson does rather excel. He delivers on pretty much everything that I would want to see from a tipster service. Something that doesn’t necessarily surprise me given that this isn’t his first rodeo.
As you might expect from… well, pretty much any modern tipster service, Beat the Favourite is email based. Selections are made available Tuesday through Saturday and typically land between 10.30am and 11.30am. If there are no bets, then Pete Thompson does notify you of this. Something that I am very pleased to see is that the emails also include some odds advice.
This is always going to be important with a service like Beat the Favourite. Getting the right odds is an imperative part of making the whole service work. If you aren’t looking to maximise your odds or are taking odds that simply don’t reflect the risk in backing a certain horse, you will lose out more in the long run.
What I would say is that for the volume of bets that are involved, it is probably worth taking the time to utilise an odds comparison site with Beat the Favourite. I know that Pete Thompson offers advice, and that is very welcome, but in my experience you can see returns increase by as much as 20% by shopping around with bookies.
When you are quite consistently looking at horses that have longer odds, that can mean an extra point or two per bet. That inevitably adds up a lot over the lifespan of a service. It is also worth looking out for bookies that will pay out on more places. This is something that Pete Thompson is generally good at with Beat the Favourite, but you should always be doing your own homework too in my opinion.
As you might expect given the tone so far, you are dealing with quite long odds with Beat the Favourite. The average odds come in at about 5/1, but the range is much more significant. Bets often get into double figures. Of course, the “lower end” of Pete Thompson’s selections aren’t exactly low. But for a service that is about avoiding favourites, that should simply be what you expect.
Given the fact that there is a strong leniency towards those longer bets, you might assume that Beat the Favourite is exclusively concerned with betting on an each way basis. Whilst this is definitely a priority for Pete Thompson, it isn’t exclusive. There are the odd bets that are back to win where a favourite has been too heavily favoured.
With that said, let’s talk numbers. It is advised that you are betting 1 point each way. This means that Beat the Favourite is actually staking 2 points per bet. There is the odd win bet at a single point but that is very much an exception. With as many as 4 bets per day, this is all relatively manageable. I do however feel like the recommended betting bank of 100 points feels a touch tight in my opinion.
One of the big selling points for Beat the Favourite is how often you will supposedly win. Pete Thompson claims a strike rate of 41.5%/ That is a massive number given the odds involved. As is often the case with each way betting though, this also includes a place. As such, you aren’t necessarily quite raking in the wins.
How Does Beat the Favourite Work?
In my mind, there are two elements that are behind how Beat the Favourite works. The first one is the most obvious. You are avoiding betting on favourites. Like I said in my introduction to this, that is an incredibly viable model that has a lot of merit. Mathematically, it makes sense, and because of that in the long term I can see how Pete Thompson is going to be able to leverage some profit.
Building on this a little bit, I would be inclined to say that there is also an element of value. Beat the Favourite isn’t just based around simply backing the second favourite. Pete Thompson is picking winners at some pretty big odds and you don’t tend to do that by accident. As such, I would be inclined to hazard a guess that he is finding horses who have been mispriced. This is of course speculation on my behalf.
The truth of the matter is that when you really break it down, we aren’t given a whole lot of insight into how Beat the Favourite works. There are comments made, little bits that are hinted at, but Pete Thompson doesn’t really make mention of the selection process. This is a bit of a shame, but I don’t think that it’s a deal breaker here either. This is a fundamentally straightforward service at the end of the day.
Adding to this is the fact that we get some decent proofing for Beat the Favourite. A look at the results gives you a decent idea of the ebb and flow of wins and losses. Something that I would say however is that rathe disappointingly, we aren’t working with the biggest data sample size. Whilst there are a few months of proofing, it is a long way from comprehensive. As such, I wouldn’t rely on this too much in evaluating long term potential.
What is the Initial Investment?
If you want to sign up Beat the Favourite there are two different options available. Firstly, you can sign up on a monthly subscription. This is priced at just £14.95 per month, inclusive of VAT. An incredibly reasonable price point for a tipster service.
Alternatively, and representing much better value, despite the larger outlay, you can sign up for the year for a one time cost of £67. Pete Thomson claims that this represents a significant discount on the “real” value of Beat the Favourite which is claimed to be £179.40.
Whichever option you choose to sign up for, Beat the Favourite comes with a full 30 day money back guarantee. This is backed up by the fact that Pete Thomson is selling access to the service through Clickbank who are generally good at honouring these things (so long as you aren’t a serial returner of products that is).
What is the Rate of Return?
The big selling point of Beat the Favourite is that the service has made £18,862 in profit to date. That is one hell of a number. But there is a bit of an issue that I ultimately have with it and the representation of the results. First and foremost, this is to £100 stakes. Much more than most people will be betting with. What it actually means s that Pete Thompson has made 188 points. A still impressive number given the timescale, but that context is important.
Whilst we’re establishing context, it is hard to ignore the fact that this is also based off the fact that you’re effectively staking 2 points on every bet. Whilst I can respect why Pete Thompson is doing this, it does inflate the results a little bit. I wouldn’t consider it to be a deal breaker, but it is worth keeping in mind that you can reasonably half this number.
Conclusion for Beat the Favourite
There has been a strong recent form in terms of the tipster services that have been put out. It’s been a good time to be a punter. But there is still a lot of competition and it can be very difficult knowing what is and isn’t worthwhile. Beat the Favourite is a service that I think probably is, but not for the reasons that you might necessarily expect.
In many ways I think that Pete Thompson is doing a reasonable job as a tipster. The results aren’t bad at all, albeit a little inflated. This is mostly relatively simple conceptually. It makes sense that you might want to use bigger stakes with the kind of betting Beat the Favourite uses. But I will always highlight when that is happening. Even when it’s justified.
As well as being respectably profitable, Beat the Favourite is very well managed. Something that means a massive amount here. The fact is that if you want to take Pete Thompson’s advice further, then I think you can. There is plenty of potential to take this to even higher levels than the claimed results.
Whilst I’m talking about the positives, it is of course very hard to ignore the pricing. £15 a month doesn’t get you much of anything in this day and age. As such, getting access to a tipster service with solid profits means that there is some very real value to Beat the Favourite. Especially if you’re looking for a service to get started with.
There is one thing that hangs over Beat the Favourite though. This is the fact that Pete Thompson hasn’t been proofing the service for all that long. As such, whilst the results have been good to date, and continue to be so, you’re not looking at a massive data sample. This means that if you’re going to come into this, there is definitely an element of risk.
On balance, I think that this is really worth some consideration. I know that Pete Thompson has a history of this kind of betting, and his other service continues to be profitable. It’s been a little up and down, but it hasn’t done badly either. Beat the Favourite is probably likely to continue in the same vein too. Combine that with the very low price and it is hugely appealing. Especially when those big wins land.
If you are more conservative however, then you might want to hold off on this. Not because I think that it’s bad. Far from it. However, there is a lot to be said for the fact that you simply don’t have much to go off. Mostly Pete Thompson’s word that Beat the Favourite works, and a set of results that cover a few months. None of that means that this is a bad service in my opinion though.
