Certified Winners is a new to market horse racing tipster service which is operated by Dave Simpson. He claims that his betting advice can help you to produce massive amounts of profit from tiny stakes.
Introduction to Certified Winner
Put simply, Dave Simpson claims in the headline for Certified Winners that if you “WANT BIG WINS FROM TINY STAKES” then this is the service for you. Of course, there are plenty of tipsters promising something along these lines, but here, we’re given an example. I’ll talk about this in more detail later on, but we’re talking returns of more than 6,700 times your initial stake. That is a bloody big number and one that it is definitely hard not to pay attention to.
Of course, claims of this nature aren’t a new thing. And I can tell you here and now that I’ve lost count of the number of services wherein similar claims are made, but said service has been quietly closed down. Furthermore, I do find myself questioning some of the claims that Dave Simpson makes for Certified Winners. Especially in terms of how often you’ll realistically be winning. Of course, I will approach this with an open mind, so let’s get straight into it.
What Does Certified Winners Offer?
As far as tipster services go, I don’t think that Dave Simpson is really offering anything new here. In actual fact, I believe that I have seen every single element of the service individually in some shape or form before now. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are bad ideas, or that bringing them all together will have a negative impact on Certified Winners. Potentially, quite the opposite.
With that said, knowing where to start is a bit of a difficult thing. There are definitively elements of Certified Winners that are substantially more important than others. However, I am going to put them to one side for a minute in order to talk about some of the more mundane things. Namely, the logistics and management.
You see, one of the things that stands out to me is that Dave Simpson takes a very rigid approach to the structure of Certified Winners. Something that in my experience can yield some mixed results. First things first, this is not a daily tipster service. We are explicitly told that whilst you can expect bets Monday through Friday, there are never bets on weekends (although the why isn’t discussed).
Those bets that are sent through the week are very typical of what you can expect from a modern tipster service. Selections are issued directly to subscribers via email, they contain just enough information in order to get the bets placed (something that ties in nicely with the next point), and importantly, the selections are sent out the evening before racing. Typically before 11pm.
This means that whilst that lack of information (which doesn’t include any insight into odds. Instead, Dave Simpson invites you to shop around because he just bets through Betfair) is problematic, you can overcome this with an odds comparison site. This synergises particularly well with the fact that selections for Certified Winners are sent out the evening before as it leaves a decent window to maximise your value.
Now, we come to the bets themselves. Every single bet advised through Certified Winners is a Canadian bet. For those of you who may not be familiar with this rather exotic accumulator, it is effectively made up of 26 bets (all back to win) across 5 different horses. This means 10 doubles, 10 trebles, 5 four fold accumulators, and a final five fold accumulator too. This sounds overwhelming, however, actually placing this bet with most bookmakers isn’t too difficult a thing.
As you would probably expect, you get some very impressive odds when all of this is put together. Especially if all of the selections happen to come in. But of course, you simply won’t be winning big all that often. That should go without saying. It is also why it is so important if you are following Certified Winners to ensure that you’re really maximising your profit potential.
Of course, this kind of thing can get expensive. This is why Dave Simpson recommends staking just 50p on each bet. That way, your overall outgoings for the day are limited to just £13. A number that I will concede sounds entirely reasonable. But actually, I find the whole thing rather concerning.
You see, one of the key elements that isn’t discussed with Certified Winners is what kind of betting bank you need. Whilst I will concede that £13 per day doesn’t sound like a lot, it can add up very quickly. Especially if you don’t happen to have winners landing frequently. Personally, if I were looking at this, I’d want a betting bank that would cover at least 50 bets. This would mean a bank of £650 to Dave Simpson’s advised stakes. But even then, that might not be enough.
If there is one critical piece of information that is missing from Certified Winners in my opinion, it is how often you can actually expect to win. You see, Dave Simpson shows us his winners from November so “you get an idea of what kind of returns you can expect”. This includes two full Canadians landing, as well as two bets that have 4 out of 5 horses win. Importantly, this implies a strike rate of 20% is attainable on those bigger wins. I categorically don’t believe that it is.
How Does Certified Winners Work?
Obviously, those Canadian bets are at the core of Certified Winners as a service. That idea of staking a small amount and having the potential for massive returns is quite literally what the headlines are all about. But as I find myself having to say frustratingly often when I’m reviewing tipster services like this, backing a certain type of bet is not actually a strategy in and of itself. Which is a bit problematic for Dave Simpson in my opinion.
The unfortunate fact of the matter is that using a Canadian because you can take advantage of low stakes and high potential returns is about all the insight that we get into how the service works. Dave Simpson doesn’t talk about how Certified Winners is focused on value in this area, or backing favourites with a view to producing consistent profits. Nope… Just… it’s a Canadian bet and that is good.
Arguably the most concerning thing for me is that there is no insight into the selection process. All that we are told by Dave Simpson is that the selections are “only “best picks” that I think will win regardless of the odds”. Firstly, yeah, I’d bloody well hope so. But also, the criterion used to identify those best picks is important. At the end of the day, Certified Winners could simply be based around names that sound good, throwing darts at a board, or even the weather.
And the nail in the coffin is that you don’t even get any real proofing to provide context. Let’s be really blunt here. The evidence backing up the claim that Certified Winners is a profitable tipster service boils down to four (rather questionable) screenshots of betting slips from one month of betting. At the very best, these are genuine but likely anomalous results. A long way from providing an idea of what kind of results you can actually expect.
What is the Initial Investment?
Dave Simpson has two options available if you want to subscribe to Certified Winners. The first of these is a simple monthly option. This is priced as a one time cost of £30 (plus VAT) for which you get 30 days of selections. Representing much better value for money is a quarterly subscription. This is priced at £45 (plus VAT) for 3 months. What is interesting about both of these options is that there is no recurring payments.
Both of the options come with a full 30 day money back guarantee. Something that Dave Simpson mentions in the sales material for Certified Winners, however, I wouldn’t exactly call it prominent. This money back guarantee is backed up by the fact that the service is being sold through Clickbank. They are generally good at honouring this kind of thing, so long as you don’t repeatedly claim refunds.
What is the Rate of Return?
Dave Simpson claims that in November, he made a profit of £6,701.93 from the 4 winning bets. Using the idea of £13 as being a single point, this would mean a profit of some 515 points in the month. If you were to view 50p as 1 point, this number grows even more exponentially. But regardless of how you choose to measure the results, there is no denying the important fact that there is such limited evidence of this.
Conclusion for Certified Winners
It’s easy to look at something like Certified Winners and get a bit carried away with the results potential. I mean, I would generally expect to see somewhere around 320 points in a year for a very strong service. To exceed this by almost 200 points in a single month is… Well, it’s almost too good to be true to be honest. Something that doesn’t strike me as a coincidence.
The fact is that there is a massive amount to unpack with Certified Winners, and not a lot of it is particularly great. First things first, let’s talk about that lack of evidence that exists. Look, I don’t expect any tipster to be out here telling you step by step how they find their selections. That just wouldn’t be reasonable or fair to them. But that is no reason for not demonstrating at least some knowledge of the sport you’re tipping.
Unfortunately, Dave Simpson provides pretty much nothing. I know I’m repeating myself a bit here, but it simply isn’t enough to just say that you’re picking the best bets. That is the bare minimum that any tipster should be doing, but even that leaves so much conjecture and doesn’t really tell you anything. Anybody can simply pick out their best bets, but unless the person who is doing that knows anything about betting, their best bets may well be crap.
This is all particularly concerning to me because of the number of horses that are being picked out. Most decent tipsters that I know will simply look to advise maybe 5 selections on a busier day. For Dave Simpson to be simply picking those day in, day out… Well, it strikes me that there may simply not be 5 quality picks every day.
One of the things that I think is most frustrating about all of this is that the core premise of Certified Winners is something that can work. Some of the most profitable services that I’ve ever looked at have leveraged the same premise of bringing bets together in one of those more exotic accumulators. Interestingly, it is this knowledge of the fact that it works that allows me to call into question Dave Simpson’s results.
You see, those other services that I have looked at have often had months between big wins (i.e. all bets coming in), something that was clearly demonstrated in the proofing. And they were dealing with less horses that Dave Simpson is with Certified Winners. This means that when you see entirely unsubstantiated claims of bringing together 5 selections a day that have had big winners four times in a month… It doesn’t fit those existing trends.
Were Certified Winners coming from a reputable tipster, this may be something that you can overlook. But unfortunately, Dave Simpson has come out of nowhere, providing a month of results, with nothing of substance backing them up. It’s all just a little bit suspect for a service that seems to be mostly concerned with getting you over the line of that refund period that Clickbank provide an all services sold through them.
Based off all of this, I can’t really bring myself to recommend Certified Winners. Realistically, I just can’t see this making money in the short, or the long term. The best case scenario is that you might get a lucky win in those first 30 days. But you certainly won’t get close to the numbers that Dave Simpson implies are a common occurrence.
The bottom line here is this. With Certified Winners, you are almost exclusively taking Dave Simpson’s word that he is able to guide you to a profit. And taking the word of the one person who is definitively going to profit from a situation is not really a smart investment strategy.