Deep Thought is a new horse racing tipster service from the Betfan group. It has show considerable profits since launching that suggest a consistent income stream may well be on the cards.
Introduction to Deep Thought by Betfan
The reason that Deep Thought caught my eye is actually a rather esoteric one. I am a huge fan of The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy and opened it mostly to see if the service was named for the famous computer.
This was neither confirmed nor denied, but given that the tipster behind the service is a computer programmer (a topic I want to come back to), it seems likely they are in on the joke. This pleases me. What is slightly more pleasing than a sci-fi geek in joke is the fact that Deep Thought seems to have produced some great results. I want to get to them later, but this is arguably one of the more interesting and exciting things I have seen from Betfan for some time. There is a lot to get through, so I want to delve straight in to Deep Thought.
What Does Deep Thought Offer?
In terms of how it operates, Deep Thought is very much in line with what I have come to expect from Betfan. That means that it is a daily tipster service in which selections are sent out to subscribers via email. They are also uploaded to a member’s area on the Betfan website. Whilst the logistics side of Deep Thought is not necessarily the most interesting thing, the bets themselves are.
All of the bets that are advised through Deep Thought are straight win bets. There is also a focus on value with the service which means that there can be longer odds involved. In fact, without looking hard at the proofing for Deep Thought at all, I can see 4 bets backing horses with double digits as odds going all the way up to 21.00.
As well as high odds, Deep Thought is a very high volume tipster service. In fact, I have counted 39 bets that were advised in one day. This is not a common occurrence, but it does happen enough to be something that you should factor in when considering Deep Thought. In fact, even day to day, the quantity of bets stands at a typical minimum of 4. It is also worth keeping in mind that you will bet on multiple horses in a single race on occasion. Sometimes as many as 3 per race.
It is quite reasonable factoring all of this in to question what kind of staking plan there is in place for Deep Thought. In fact, my initial was that Betfan’s 5 point approach might be applicable which if it was, would be devastating.
Instead, Deep Thought is made of a much more sensible approach. All bets are advised to be backed to 1 point per bet. Whilst the sheer volume does mean that there is occasionally the potential for quite substantial exposure of the bank, by and large, I don’t see this as being a problem.
One of the main reasons for not seeing the bank exposure as a problem is the strike rate. Keeping in mind that the service is based around longer odds, it is quite apparent to me that the strike rate of 17.34% is a pretty decent figure.
Don’t get me wrong, you will face losing streaks with Deep Thought. Within the last week, the longest losing streak according to Betfan’s proofing was 13 bets. The fact is that when you start to balance out all of the numbers, Deep Thought looks reasonably healthy.
How Does Deep Thought Work?
I have already touched upon the fact that the tipster behind Deep Thought is a computer programmer and it might not come as any real surprise to find that this is a part of the selection process for the service.
In the sales material, Betfan say that key to the tipsters success “Is a deep understanding of statistics, tenacity, being a professional computer programmer and hard work!”. This goes some way to providing insight, however I would have liked to have seen some understanding of the kind of statistics that are looked at.
The other factor that I want to talk about is value. This is actually key to Deep Thought as everything that Betfan mention ultimately links in to the idea of identifying value bets. This is evidenced in the odds to some degree. Honestly though, without information on how value is calculated for Deep Thought, I find myself struggling to fully commit to this.
What is the Initial Investment?
There are a few options if you want to subscribe to Deep Thought. The first of these is a monthly subscription (which is actually every 28 days, meaning that you will pay this 13 times per year) and is priced at £45. Representing better value is to subscribe to Deep Thought on a quarterly basis. This is priced at £95. It is worth noting that at the time of writing, both options allow you to trial Deep Thought for the first 28 days for £15.
As is the case with all products from within the Betfan group, there is no real money back guarantee in place for Deep Thought. The team do however say that they review all refund requests.
What is the Rate of Return?
Since launching at the end of July, Deep Thought has produced an overall points profit of 253.41 points. This is a very impressive number in and of itself, but what really makes it stand out to me is that it has been achieved to 1 point stakes. There is an argument to be had that even to £10 stakes, you may be betting £400 some days in order to attain this, but there is a relatively simple argument against it.
That is that the ROI for Deep Thought is equally as impressive as the risk standing at an average of 25.4%.
Conclusion on Deep Thought by Betfan
There are a lot of different factors that I consider when I am looking at a service. One of many is exposure of your betting bank, and that is what I want to talk about now. Whilst I will talk about the risk and reward in detail shortly, there is no getting around that sometimes you will expose large chunks of your betting bank. 39 bets in a day is a lot to place and it is a lot of outlay.
Whilst I can appreciate that in an ideal world, you would simply have a betting bank in place, the fact of the matter is that not everybody takes this approach. Even if you do, there is a psychological element to betting £390 in one day that will not appeal to everybody. That is only to £10 stakes as well. If you are looking at £25 stakes, you are at over £1,500. These are big numbers and make no mistake, I know of seasoned bettors who would think twice.
Of course, these are the exception rather than the rule and by and large, you are looking at, at most, 8 points per day. This is a much more comfortable number. One of the things that strikes me about Deep Thought more than anything else is the balance that is here.
I wouldn’t be realistic if I suggested that for all of the aforementioned potential problems, Deep Thought does win quiet often for a product that favours longer odds. This means that a few good days can instantly negate any losses.
For me, the defining question that hangs over Deep Thought is whether or not it represents value for money. The tipster market is a very competitive one and what you can get for your money varies a lot. For my money, I think that Betfan have probably priced Deep Thought about right. This is a premium product and you should expect to pay that. It may even just err on the side of expensive.
If you have the balls to see it through, then I think that Deep Thought is a decent looking tipster service. The results are reasonably consistent and whilst there have inevitably been ups and downs, there is a clear trend towards profit. You may pay for this to some degree, but honestly, I think that you can do a lot worse fro the money.