Early Morning Punter Review – WAP Bets

Early Morning Punter is a new to market horse racing tipster service which is being offered through WAP Bets. Selections come courtesy of tipster Mick, who claims to have very good profits for over 5 years.

Introduction to Early Morning Punter

If there is one thing that is definitely missing from the current horse racing tipster market, it is a service with a simple, no nonsense approach. There are far too many gimmicky tipsters out there. Kooky staking plans, BS theories about horse racing being rigged and God knows what else. I know this, because I’ve pretty much seen it all. And as such, sometimes, you end up more excited by something a bit boring than something that looks overly exciting.

Which brings me to today’s subject, Early Morning Punter. It’s pretty boring. But contrary to what we may think, that doesn’t have to be a bad thing. I’ve seen far more successful tipster services that aren’t built on a gimmick than those that are. I can’t count the amount of money that I’ve seen people lose following an “interesting idea”. The fact is that boring can bring with it consistency, and that is what WAP Bets seems to be offering with Mick.

With all of that said, Early Morning Punter isn’t necessarily all that it seems to be. There is definitely more at play here than WAP Bets initially suggest. Does this mean that the product is bad? Not necessarily. In fact, the results seem to be pretty strong. So, with all of this in mind, let’s dive right into it and see if this is something that can actually deliver a decent profit.

What Does Early Morning Punter Offer?

I’ll be honest. In the introduction, I said that Early Morning Punter is pretty boring. And that is very much true, although, perhaps I am being a touch unfair in using that term. Maybe conventional is slightly more flattering terminology. But the fact is, no matter what you dress it in, WAP Bets’s offering just doesn’t do that much to stand out from the crowd.

What you are getting yourself into when you sign up for Early Morning Punter is a near daily horse racing tipster service. I say near daily… Historically, Mick has advised a selection pretty much every day of the week. However, recently, this hasn’t been the case.

Presumably this is down to the ongoing pandemic situation and how it has affected horse racing. But it does seem as though Early Morning Punter is starting to move back towards this and I think it is more likely than not this will be the offering for the future.

As you would expect, WAP Bets issue Mick’s selections directly via email to Early Morning Punter subscribers. All that you have to do is place the relevant bets. Now, the quality of the emails that you receive are pretty much adequate. There is enough information provided for you to know what bets you are placing etc. but, as is a recurring theme, there really is just enough.

Now one thing that I categorically do like about Early Morning Punter is the timing of bets being sent out. As you would probably expect from the name, Mick sends out his selections early in the day. Typically speakingthis will be between 8am and 9am. This opens up the service to those who perhaps aren’t able to just place bets through the day.

On the subject of bets, there are a few things that immediately stand out to me about this service. Some of them are even… Dare I say it… A bit interesting. Jokes aside, the first thing that struck me when looking at Early Morning Punter is that Mick tends to just advise one bet per day. Historically there have been more, but to date for 2020, this has been the case.

This is a strong positive for me as it suggests that there is actual thought that goes into the selection process. The fact is that there are a lot of tipsters out there who will advise multiple bets per day with a view to jumping on the wagon when they have a few winners land.

The second thing that stands out to me about Early Morning Punter is the odds that are involved. There is a significant range. WAP Bets’s proofing shows  that you can expect to back horses at odds as low as 2.5 and go all the way up to 101. Whether or not they win at those higher odds is a very different question.

With that said though, Early Morning Punter doesn’t exclusively back bets to win. So quite often when you are betting on those longer shots, you will be backing them each way. This means that there is at least a chance to earn some profit from a horse placing.

There are only really two things that are really left to discuss at this point and they are both numbers based. First things first, I want to talk about the staking plan. According to WAP Bets’s proofing, all bets are advised to level stakes of 5 points. Now this number has a number of different effects on the wider results, but I’ll talk about this a little later.

One of the areas that it does affect is how quickly your betting bank can be emptied. Fortunately, Mick appears to have thought of this. Looking at what he recommends, I think that Early Morning Punter is relatively sustainable. However, I will also concede that I tend to be more prudent than most when it comes to this kind of thing.

Finally, I want to talk about the strike rate. Because key to something like Early Morning Punter working is how often you are winning. Now there have been 1525 bets proofed as I am writing this. And of that, there have been 351 winners with 30 non-runners. This makes for a strike rate of some 23.4%. Honestly, that is.. Probably roughly in line with what I would expect given the odds involved.  

How Does Early Morning Punter Work?

According to WAP Bets and Mick, there is a lot goes into selections for Early Morning Punter. And there are some statements made that make me hope that this is a genuine service. Key amongst these are statements like the following:

Horse racing is a very complex sport. It’s really tempting to just use a simple system. It’s a hell of a lot of work studying form for hours, monitoring market info and checking multiple bookie odds for value. But the problem is simple systems DON’T work…

On top of this, Mick also says that you have to “monitor and adapt to stay one step ahead of the bookies”. These seem like relatively uncontroversial and innocuous statements, but they are things that in my experience, a lot of tipsters overlook. As such, it is good to hear in the case of Early Morning Punter.

Unfortunately, as great as all of this sounds, we aren’t really given a whole lot of insight into the actual details of the selection process for Early Morning Punter. Mick talks about things like analysing data and aspects of his system against the days best races and conditions, but that doesn’t tell you too much.

What I will say though is that when you combine all of the above with the two and a half years worth of proofing that is provided by WAP Bets. I think it is pretty fair to say that this is all probably pretty above board. At the very least, you can get an idea of what to expect from Early Morning Punter in the future, especially in terms of the peaks and troughs.  

What is the Initial Investment?

If you want to sign up to Early Morning Punter, WAP Bets have just two options available. The first of these is a “monthly” subscription. This is priced at £37, however, it is billed every 28 days. This means that over the course of a year you will end up paying this 13 times.

Alternatively, you can sign up to Early Morning Punter on a quarterly basis. This does at least seem to actually be quarterly and is billed every 3 months. This is priced at £85 meaning an effective monthly cost of £28.33. And unlike the “monthly” subscription, this is your actual monthly cost.

Unfortunately, WAP Bets do not offer any money back guarantee on their products and Early Morning Punter is no exception. With that said, whichever subscription you opt for, your first 14 days will cost you just £1 before you are billed at the full amount.  

What is the Rate of Return?

Since proofing with WAP Bets began at the start of 2018, Early Morning Punter has produced an overall points profit of 2,677.07 points. That is a bloody impressive number and make no mistake about it. However, this doesn’t paint a full picture of what you can expect unfortunately.

First things first, I want to talk about the disparity between 2018 and 2019/20. By the end of 2018, Mick had produced a profit of 2,058.56 points according to WAP Bets. This means that in the last 15 months (technically 18 months, but I’ll take 3 months off because of Coronavirus) there has been a profit of just 618.44 points.

Now that still looks pretty good, right? Some 41 points per month as an average. Except all of these numbers are to 5 point level stakes. That means that if you calculate these numbers to 1 point level stakes, you are looking at around 123.7 points over 15 months. Less than 10 points per month on average. And in my opinion that provides a much better picture of what you can expect.  

Conclusion for Early Morning Punter

Services like Early Morning Punter are a perfect example of why I think it is so important to look at the big picture when you are considering a tipster service. On the surface of things, what you are looking at here is a guaranteed winner. I mean, over 2,500 points in 2 and a half years. That’s just mindbogglingly good.

But once we actually start breaking these results down, things just aren’t what they appear to be. And that is exactly why it is so important to not simply take a tipster at their word. So, where does this leave us in terms of recommending Early Morning Punter? Well… It certainly puts a dent in their prospects if I’m honest.

Here’s the thing. Whilst I could quite easily talk about Mick’s results in terms of the thousands of points that pst proof it to, I won’t really. Because I think that context is so important (although honestly, even if I did talk in those numbers, the end result wouldn’t be any different). The fact of the matter is that when you are dealing with higher level stakes like those with Early Morning Punter, I can’t help but feel that this is in order to inflate the results.

But honestly, irrespective of what stakes you are looking at, what I really want to focus on here is the disparity in results. That first year for Early Morning Punter supposedly showed a profit of around 412 points to level 1 point stakes. That is very bloody good. Since then though, that number just isn’t good enough.

Whether you talk about 618 points to 5 point stakes or 124 to 1 point stakes, Early Morning Punter has made less than a third in 15 months than it did in the first year. That is long enough that I don’t believe for a single second you can record this as being a “blip” on the results. In fact, I would say that it is probably more indicative of what you can expect long term.

And that for me is where the bottom line is drawn. Now matter what else you want to say about Early Morning Punter, I just don’t see it as being profitable enough. Sure, there has been a profit. That is more than some tipsters can say, but is it enough compared to the wider market? Is there even any value in it?

Consider this. If you are on a monthly subscription, you will pay out £481 over the year for Early Morning Punter. Presuming you want to bet £10 per selection (which I think is a reasonable number to land at) you’re talking about £1,237. Sounds pretty good right? Well, after your subs you are looking at just £756 profit or £63 per month. That isn’t a lot of money.

The fact is that there are betting systems out there that can steer you towards that a day. They will almost definitely deliver that in a week. And the difference is you won’t be paying £481 for it.

The fact of the matter is that whilst I can appreciate what Mick is doing, I don’t believe that Early Morning Punter makes nearly enough money to warrant a recommendation. There are so many better tipster services on the market. There are better betting systems on the market. And as such, why would you want to pay what WAP Bets are asking for Early Morning Punter?

With that said, if that scintillating initial form could be rediscovered, then this would be a definite winner. But after 18 months of very mediocre results, why would you expect this to change any time soon? And it is with all of that in mind, I just can’t being myself to recommend Early Morning Punter.

 

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From: Simon Roberts