Festival Winners Circle is a brand new horse racing tipster service which is supposedly able to provide subscribers with big wins across UK horse racing festivals. Selections come courtesy of Matthew O’Malley.
Introduction Festival Winners Circle
Not everybody who enjoys a bet likes to be a serious punter. What I mean by this is that they don’t necessarily want to be tied down to the grind that can come with betting every day, managing a betting bank, and generally committing to continually backing a tipsters advice even when you are facing a long losing streak.
There is a lot of discipline involved and some people just want to have a bit of fun. There is a very definite reason that festivals attract larger betting numbers than day to day racing. Festival Winners Circle is a tipster service that aims to capitalise on this by providing selections exclusively for the bigger festivals.
With Matthew O’Malley claiming some very substantial profits, is this worth the seemingly tiny subscription cost?
What Does Festival Winners Circle Offer?
As the name and my introduction suggests, Festival Winners Circle is not your typical tipster service in a number of ways, however Matthew O’Malley doesn’t do much different logistically. As is the case with a lot of tipster services, selections are sent out directly to subscribers via email.
All that you have to do is place the bets with a bookmaker of your choice. Selections are sent out to Festival Winners Circle subscribers around 10.30am on the day of a given festival. Once again, all of this is exactly what I have come to expect from a lot of tipster services.
Moving on to the bets themselves, there is a lot of conflicting information. The actual downloadable “proofing” that Matthew O’Malley provides for Festival Winners Circle shows horses that are seemingly being backed as a combination of win and each way bets.
The main sales page for the service provides a number of different multiple bets as well, however these seem to exist in some kind of limbo as these multiples are taken from just one profitable day. This raises a number of questions in my book that I will pick up a little later.
Supposedly odds range from “10-1000 times your stake”. There is no evidence from Matthew O’Malley that Festival Winners Circle can come close to this higher number as I will also look at later.
In terms of a staking plan, the proofing for Festival Winners Circle shows all bets being backed to £100 stakes. Except for the accumulators which seem to exist in their own little bubble. This level staking approach is seemingly new for 2019 as the results from Cheltenham and Aintree from last year (the other proofing that is provided) are to much smaller stakes of £25 per bet.
Finally, I want to talk about the claimed strike rate for the service. Matthew O’Malley claims that Festival Winners Circle has managed a “verified” strike rate of 42.8%. Supposedly, this is down on the average strike rate of 47.5%. I have a feeling this number has supposedly come from the 2018 results for Festival Winners Circle but I will hold my hands up and say that I haven’t calculated this, not least of which is because there isn’t really an adequate data sample to look at.
How Does Festival Winners Circle Work?
The actual selection process for Festival Winners Circle isn’t something that is really discussed. All that we are explicitly told is that Matthew O’Malley has been betting on horses for 18 years. The sales material has him talking a lot about why you lose.
This includes things like bookies simply being renowned as “tricky to beat”, you not applying the correct method, and most tipsters not knowing what they are doing. These last ones are what I particularly want to focus on as there is a certain tone across the sales material for Festival Winners Circle which simply suggests that Matthew O’Malley is better than anything on the market. There is however no justification for any of this.
It isn’t even like I believe that the proofing is reliable enough to be seen as a genuine indicator of what to expect. We are told that Festival Winners Circle covers “All UK BHA major festivals” and includes a list between March and May. The proofing from the last year only looks at Cheltenham and Aintree. This is a pretty substantial difference in my opinion and as such, I am quite wary of trusting Matthew O’Malley’s claimed results.
What is the Initial Investment?
I have made reference already to the seemingly tiny subscription cost for Festival Winners Circle. Given that the pricing for the service is just £49.25 for 12 months of access, this seems very reasonable.
Especially when you consider that Matthew O’Malley is claiming that the real value of the service is £197 meaning that the price is a substantial discount. It is worth keeping in mind that this is described as a limited time offer, however I don’t believe that this is the case at all.
It is worth noting that Festival Winners Circle is being sold through Clickbank which means that there is a full 60 day money back guarantee in place as Matthew O’Malley is selling the service through Clickbank. This is referenced in the sales material, however so is a 30 day money back guarantee, so I’m not really sure what Matthew O’Malley is aiming for.
What is the Rate of Return?
In terms of the income potential, Festival Winners Circle has supposedly generated a quite incredible 40.11 points of profit during Cheltenham. This would put it an average of around 10 points per day on average.
There is also the additional profit that has supposedly been generated by the unproofed accumulator bets as well. On top of this, Matthew O’Malley claims that for some £2,000 was generated as profit for Cheltenham in 2018 using £25 stakes, whilst Aintree saw £478 profit to the same stakes.
These claims are proofed, however I am not convinced that the proofing for Festival Winners Circle is genuine and above board.
Conclusion on Festival Winners Circle
There is a lot about Festival Winners Circle that just doesn’t add up. So much so that I genuinely have no real idea where to begin. First of all, I want to talk about why Matthew O’Malley’s claimed results are so questionable. There are a lot of reasons for this, but mostly I want to address the lack of contextual information for a lot of the claims.
If we start by looking at the accumulators, they seemingly come out of nowhere. There is no mention of them being a part of a wider package with Matthew O’Malley simply saying that they can be combined. Most tipsters worth their salt will advise you to stick to a plan because it is proven profitable, not deviate and take on additional risk as and when you fancy it. T
ying into this, I can’t help but feel like the implication of the more fanciful odds quoted are to sell you on the idea that blindly backing accumulators is a good thing.
Moving on to the proofing. Given that Festival Winners Circle looks at all UK festivals, you would expect to see a good years worth of festival results.
Instead, we are given just 2 which are not just kept separately, but look nothing like the proofing provide for this year. Given that Matthew O’Malley has supposedly been betting for so long, surely better proofing (such as for the full year, maybe) and a more consistent approach would be appropriate? Especially when he is able to tell you how much he has made backing horses at festivals.
As well as these quite blatant problems, there are other things that just don’t sit right. Matthew O’Malley has been betting for 18 years, but chooses not to provide any insight into his selection process, rather, tell you all of the reasons that others on the market are not worth pursuing. That just seems lazy.
There is also the rather concerning discrepancy when it comes to the refund policy. Not just does Festival Winners Circle actively contradict that which Clickbank enforces on most products sold through the platform, this difference is very obvious and provides quite a substantial gulf.
All of this is more than enough for me to say that I don’t believe that Festival Winners Circle is a genuine product. There is more to it than this however. The vendor who is selling Festival Winners Circle through Clickbank is a name that is well known to me.
They have put out a large number of different tipsters services in their time and none of them are still around. I see little reason to believe that Festival Winners Circle will be any different. With all of this in mind, I cannot stress enough that I would give this a very wide berth indeed as the most likely outcome is that you will pay your subscription fee and ultimately lose money, something nobody really wants.