Finn’s Favourites Review

Finn’s Favourites is a new to market horse racing tipster service which is operated by the eponymous Finn Atherton. He claims to produce a substantial profit through low risk, and relatively low stake betting.

Introduction to Finn’s Favourites

When it comes to betting, there is a lot of “conventional wisdom”, and it is interesting to consider how much stock you should put into this. After all, times change. Some things that perhaps weren’t advisable once upon a time you can now get away with, especially because betting is a much more open market than it used to be. By the same token, sometimes things don’t work because… Well, they’ve been tried and tested, and they just don’t.

One of these conventional wisdom’s is that constantly betting on favourites is a sure-fire path to wrack and ruin in the long term. Unless of course, you are Finn. The creator of the product I am reviewing today, Finn’s Favourites. In fact, he has built a supposedly profitable tipster service based entirely around that concept.

But with it widely being regarded that a strike rate of 70% is required to make backing favourites viable, there is a lot being asked here. The question is whether or not Finn’s Favourites can deliver? Or perhaps we should be asking if everything here is quite what it seems to be. Let’s jump straight in and find out.

What Does Finn’s Favourites Offer?

So, you look at the name of the product, and it’s apparent that Finn’s Favourites involves backing favourites. It’s clear. He even says “Backing outsiders,, is a mugs game!”. But really, there is a lot more to the service than this, as I hope to explore. Don’t get me wrong, this doesn’t mean that you are breaking new ground here, but it certainly isn’t as straight forward as it first appears.

But I really want to start by looking at the elements of Finn’s Favourites that you probably would expect. The fact of the matter is that Finn Atherton has ultimately put out a very typical example of a modern tipster service (not that this is necessarily a bad thing).

What this means for subscribers is that you will usually receive your selections on a near daily basis (there does seem to be the odd “no bet” day). As you would probably expect, these are sent out directly via email. These are typically sent out on the morning of racing, and whilst they can arrive early, this is definitely something to keep in mind if you work a 9-5.

Now, one of the elements that is interesting about Finn’s Favourites is that Finn actively encourages users to bet on an exchange rather than using bookies. This of course means no account restrictions, whilst also coming with the implication that you can obtain better odds.

In theory, this is plausible and if you looked at the (rather limited) evidence provided you may well reach the same conclusion. However, the reality is that this is one of those very difficult to substantiate claims that conveniently serves Finn Atherton and the “narrative” that exists for Finn’s Favourites.

Moving on to the bets themselves, let’s not mince words here. This is a horse racing tipping product and there are only so many markets that are available (although Betfair does at least open up the options a little). In this case though, you are exclusively looking at straight win bets.

As you would expect, this does somewhat limit the odds. And When you also factor in that Finn Atherton deals with “favourites”, there are clearly further restrictions there as well. In spite of this though, if you look at the odds that you can supposedly get through Betfair, we are seemingly to expect anything from evens all the way up to 4.83.

Personally though, I am very sceptical of this. From what I have seen, you will generally be dealing with much lower odds, as you would expect. Something that ultimately has a huge impact when we come to talk about the results for Finn’s Favourites.

Just whilst we are on the topic of bets, I want to talk about the volume of bets a little. This is an area where no specific claims are made, however, there is more than enough evidence to suggest that 2-4 bets per day as an average is reasonable. From what I have seen of Finn’s Favourites as well, this is all about right.

With that out of the way, I want to talk about something now that is probably one of the single most important elements of Finn’s Favourites, and that is the strike rate. I mentioned earlier that conventional wisdom says that if you are backing favourites you need to attain a strike rate of about 70% to be profitable. Finn Atherton claims that his strike rate comes in at 65%.

This number is however an entirely unsubstantiated one. The only evidence that we are provide backing this up is a highly questionable screenshot that shows Finn Atherton’s “betting history”. Coincidentally, this just happens to show a very convenient strike rate of 66%, just a touch higher than that claimed figure.

And finally, we come to the staking plan. Finn Atherton doesn’t do anything extravagant here at all. This is a very straight forward level stakes affair. Now, all of the proofing for Finn’s Favourites is based around betting £25 per point, however, we are also told that you should aim to start with a minimum of £5 per point.

On top of this, we are told that you require a 100 point betting bank. This is quite interesting to me as whilst it is what I would generally take as standard, you would expect something with a consistent strike rate to require a smaller bank and larger stakes from this. But I will come back to my thoughts on this a little later.  

How Does Finn’s Favourites Work?

Finn Atherton does a great job of talking just enough about what Finn’s Favourites entails to sound like it might be legitimate. However, as somebody who looks at a lot of betting systems I can’t help but feel that a lot of what is said is purposefully vague and doesn’t actually tell you anything of substance.

What we are told is that “You can make money backing favourites if certain conditions are met”, however, we aren’t actually told what these conditions may entail. Something that is very interesting given the fact that Finn Atherton says that Finn’s Favourites can produce results no matter what (citing the recent storms and the “fact” that he won over them as proof).

Outside of this, there is a vague set of hypothetical equations showing how increasing your odds and strike rate increase your profit (who’d have seen that coming?!), but as is always the way with hypotheticals you can make anything sound reasonable. As such, I am inclined to entirely dismiss this.

What this means is that you have nothing really saying what the selection process involves, no real proofing for Finn’s Favourites, and all of this means that ultimately you can’t make an informed decision. This is massively problematic for me as I believe that at the very least, any genuine tipster will provide you with enough information to do this.

What is the Initial Investment?                     

There is only actually one option available if you want to subscribe to Finn’s Favourites, and this is a one time payment of £40 (plus VAT) for which you get access for 60 days. What is interesting about this is when you are taken to the Clickbank payment page, there is no stipulation that your subscription is for this length of time (which there usually is when this is in place).

What we are told in the sales material is that once 60 days have elapsed, you can accept an offer to receive selections for the rest o the year at a 50% discount. This theoretically sounds well and good, but the reality is that there is no context provided for what you are actually getting 50% off.

Another thing that is very noteworthy in terms of Finn’s Favourites is the fact that whilst Finn Atherton does make passing comment about the fact that this is a 60 day trial, what he doesn’t state is that this is the case because of Clickbank’s 60 day money back guarantee. Honestly, this strikes me as at least a little suspect.  

What is the Rate of Return?

Of course, the real appeal of something like Finn’s Favourites is how much you can expect to make through the service. The headline says that you can turn £25 bets into £2,400 or more every month. That is a pretty impressive claim in and of itself, but it most definitely isn’t the focus in my opinion.

Instead, I want to pick up on Finn Atherton’s claim that the service makes close to 80 points every month. Let’s not mince our words here, that is an immense amount of money to make. Some of the best tipster services that I have looked at will struggle to achieve half of this. However, given the fact that Finn’s Favourites isn’t actually proofed, I can’t help but take this with the same pinch of salt with which I take the above claim.

Conclusion for Finn’s Favourites

I can see the appeal of Finn’s Favourites. It just looks and sounds like a decent proposition. To be completely honest, much of what Finn Atherton says makes a certain amount of sense. This is of course aided greatly by those hypothetical equations which really do a good jo of selling the service. This includes the lower risk element, the higher profits, and the notion of just making money through backing favourites (or second favourites).

But all of this is ultimately academic. You don’t have to look very hard at Finn’s Favourites (at least in my opinion) to see that there are… Shall we say gaps, in the claims made. Now this isn’t necessarily that things don’t add up. Far from it. In fact, I would be inclined to go as far as to say that everything adds up a little too neatly.

Now that isn’t inherently a problem. In fact, it suggests that there is a consistency to Finn’s Favourites that would be welcome. I say would be because the cold hard fact is that you are very much taking Finn Atherton’s word that his approach works. This is particularly problematic because I have seen far too many genuine tipsters show that it just doesn’t really work.

Here’s the thing, what I would have loved to see here is some real proofing that Finn Atherton can do what he claims. But he doesn’t. And there is a very distinctive lack of evidence backing the claims up. I mean, best case scenario here is that somebody who bet half of their inheritance rather blindly on a favourite is running a tipster service. Would you trust their word long term? I for one can say with supreme confidence that I wouldn’t.  

But that is only one element of it really. As well as demonstrating that there is no reason at all to put faith into Finn Atherton’s claims, there is one massive problem that I feel like most people would overlook. And that boils down to the vendor who is selling the product.

I am relatively familiar with their work and it isn’t because I’ve made a fortune off them. I’d love nothing more than to say that I was writing this from a villa in the Maldives off the back of their last “genius” tipster service but I’m not. In fact, to the best of my knowledge, all of their services have been quietly closed not long after that 60 day money back guarantee (that is rather conveniently missed out here).

So, keeping all of that in mind, I’d be inclined to give this one a pretty big miss if I were you. The fact is that even if you put all of the other concerns aside, what you are looking at is a service that is in no way proven making claims that are patently ridiculous. No matter how you look at Finn’s Favourites (unless it is through rose tinted glasses) this is just a service that is riddled with faults.

 

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From: Simon Roberts