Fire & Forget/Sure Certs Review – Pro Betting Club

Fire & Forget and (and Sure Certs) is a very long standing horse racing tipster service which is currently being offered by Pro Betting Club. It works by aiming to provide a consistent but small profit to users throughout the year.

Introduction to Fire & Forget

I don’t like to think of myself as being risk averse, but I am definitely prudent. Some people give me a bit of stuck for this, but they can say what they will. Whilst I know plenty of guys who boldly talk about cashing out on a £120 acca like its no big deal, I also know how quiet they are on their losing weeks. For me, long term and consistent profits are undoubtedly the goal. Sure, this sometimes stop me from getting those “jackpot wins” (guess who missed bitcoin at £100 a coin?). But my bank balance is ultimately healthier because of it.

This brings me to Fire & Forget. And what is really interesting about this as far as tipster services go is that Pro Betting Club are effectively claiming that you are getting a guaranteed profit, every day. That is a hell of a claim to make, but once you start looking into it a bit more, it makes sense. I’ll talk about this a little later on, but what you are dealing with here is a “stop at first” or “stop at a winner service”. And it is pretty much exactly what it says on the tin. Once you’re up, you walk away.

So how exactly do these services guarantee that profit? And more specifically, are they actually as risk free as they sound? The answer to this is actually quite long winded. But the short answers are “probability” and “they are definitely not”. I’ll be honest, I’m generally a bit cynical about these kinds of things, but I will try to keep an open mind.  

What Does Fire & Forget Offer?

First things first, I think it is very important to acknowledge that technically, you are getting access to two different tipster services here. Pro Betting Club advertise it that way and given the distinctions between Fire & Forget and Sure Certs, I think that is a reasonable stance to take (although there is enough overlap for them to be a bit relevant to one another). For the purposes of this review, I will be mostly focussing on Fire & Forget, but I will also touch on what Sure Certs means as well.

So, starting with Fire & Forget, what exactly are you getting yourself into here? Well, there is a lot to cover in terms of answering that question. Much of the focus here has to be on the bets themselves and general betting structure. Because that is absolutely key to making the whole service work and providing a lot of context for how everything works. It is also worth

And it is because of that that we are going to start with the bets. Everything here is nice and straight forward. Every single selection that is advised is a straight win bet on horse racing. This means that even though elements of Fire & Forget do start to get a bit complicated, there are also parts that are about as simple as they can be.  

Each day when selections are sent out, you will receive 6 bets. These are typically low odds with Pro Betting Club pointing out that the lowest odds advised were 1/4. Just think about what that means for a minute. £4 on in order to get just £1 back (for further context, the highest selection advised had winning odds of 7/2). As such, value isn’t a priority around here at all.

Now, I have to talk a little about how Fire & Forget works, but I also need to lean on some information that Pro Betting Club keep behind a paywall. As I always say, I don’t believe it is fair for me to give this away for free, so please, excuse me if I’m a little vague here.

Each bet is backed to a certain amount. The intention here is produce a profit of one point. If that bet loses, the process is then repeated on the next bet, and so on and so forth. If on the other hand a bet lands and you are up, you simply stop bet betting. The idea here is that by the end of the day, you are guaranteed to be in profit.

This is something that has ultimately proven very good with Pro Betting Club claiming just 27 losing days since August 2015. That is a hell of a long time to go with only a few days where you are losing money. Of course, the potential money that you lose on one of those days can take some time to recoup.

Logistically, Fire & Forget is pretty much as you would expect. You get all of the information that you need to get your bets placed, all directly via email, to your inbox (with the exception of no bet days which happen every Sunday). But you don’t just receive the 6 selections for Fire & Forget, you also get the 4 Sure Certs selections as well.

These are much more straight forward and are probably best seen as a bonus in my opinion (hence the focus on Fire & Forget as a review subject). These are the four horses that have been identified as being the top rated. As such, they should have a high chance of winning. Where Fire & Forget involves betting through the day, with Sure Certs you can simply place your bets at the start and see how it pans out.

It is worth noting that Pro Betting Club claim a strike rate of 95% for Sure Certs and just 99 losing days. This suggests some quite substantial profit potential here. With that said, you should keep in mind that you still won’t be dealing with particularly massive odds here either.  

How Does Fire & Forget Work?

I know I’ve already touched on how Fire & Forget works, but I think it’s worth being a little bit more in depth here. Because in theory, this sounds quite scary. Because if you have a day where all horses lose (which you have to remember does happen, even if it is rarely) then there is potentially significant outlay, right? And taking 1 point per day, it can take a long time to make those results up. That is the single biggest criticism I’ve had of services like this before now.

Pro Betting Club get around this through clever use of their staking plan though. Again, I’m treading carefully, but they take time to minimise your outlay by playing it safe. This can be frustrating undoubtedly. Especially because for some people, they will spend every day fuming about how much more they could have won if they’d bet more. But that isn’t what Fire & Forget is about. Mitigation of risk, and a slow and steady approach.

What I do find a bit frustrating is that there is no insight into how selections are found for either Fire & Forget or Sure Certs. It’s all well and good saying that you’re dealing with top rated horses, but top rated according to who exactly? Unfortunately, this is always a problem with Pro Betting Club. They don’t tend to be particularly forthcoming with information on their tipsters and their approach.

With that said, you do get full proofing for Fire & Forget (although not for Sure Certs which is a bit disappointing). This goes all the way back to 2015 and if I’m really honest, I don’t think that you can say much fairer than that. It gives you a very good idea of what to expect, so long as you are willing to flick through a 294 page PDF (please Pro Betting Club, if you’re reading this, spreadsheets, I beg of you!).  

What is the Initial Investment?

There is only one option if you want to sign up to Fire & Forget and that is a monthly subscription which is priced at £49 per month. This isn’t necessarily a prohibitive cost. In fact, it is about at the top end of what I’d expect to pay for a tipster service on a monthly basis. But it really is at the top end.

It is worth noting that Pro Betting Club don’t provide any money back guarantee for Fire & Forget. This is generally the case across the industry, so it doesn’t count as too much as a negative. Further mitigating this is the fact that you can sign up for a 7 day trial for just £1.  

What is the Rate of Return?

One of the interesting things about Fire & Forget is that Pro Betting Club don’t actually make any specific claims about how much you can expect to make. Now, don’t get me wrong, one can speculate about such matters, but I cannot stress enough that it is speculation.

Looking at the fact that there have been 1,446 winning bets, one can posit that this is how much has been made. But how much has been lost over those losing days? If we a very exaggerated guess of 15 points, that leaves a profit of 1,041. But I would expect it to be higher than this if I’m honest.

Meanwhile, the Sure Certs bets have had 1,377 winning bets with 99 losing. Again, I am speculating, but I don’t think a profit of 1,000 points is out of the question here either. This puts the potential profit at quite a high number.

Conclusion for Fire & Forget

I find it an interesting juxtaposition that Fire & Forget is sold as being a low risk service, because in my eyes, there is a fair degree of risk involved. Now, this risk isn’t necessarily down to the methods that are employed here (although that doesn’t mean they are flawless and I will be picking this thread up), so much as, a lack of transparency.

Here’s something that I don’t understand. You want somebody to sign up to your betting service, right? And with possibly a very minute few, people will do this because they think that you can help them make money. So, how do you get people on board with your system? You don’t tell them how much money you can make. Perfect.

What you also then do is provide absolutely no context for your results. You have almost 1,500 winning bets and just a few losing ones. The pros should massively outweigh the cons there. But instead, you obfuscate that negative information in order to stop somebody seeing how balanced the scales are. Why do that? Are people really more likely to sign up for a service if they don’t know how much they can stand to lose? I don’t even know at this point…

Here’s the thing. As I’ve already said, I do believe that you will see a profit following Fire & Forget. It stands to reason based off the numbers. But the fact that the results are skipped over in the way that they are make me very suspicious about just how extreme the liabilities may be with this. And the absolutely most frustrating part is that Pro Betting Club should, and I believe do, know better.

On top of this, I like the idea. I’ve seen services that rely on recovering before, but they also involve betting increasing amounts with a view to getting “a win” rather than focusing on that 1poiint profit. And in theory, this should absolutely pop off. It’s a great idea. £10 a day doesn’t sound like a huge amount of money, but let me tell you, that adds up. And as it does, you can simply adjust your bets. Because there shouldn’t be risk with the approach.

But that lack of transparency is wherein the risk lies. I know I’m right back to where I started but that is only because I really wanted to like Fire & Forget. On paper, it is exactly the kind of service that I would like to recommend to people. A nice slow burner that can theoretically still be bringing in a little bit for… Well, as long as it’s running. But I can’t like it.

Don’t get me wrong, that isn’t the only flaw here. Let’s not forget the fact that if you are following Fire & Forget, you do need to be able to place as many as 6 bets through the day. That isn’t something that a lot of people are positioned to do. And if I’m really objective, in and of itself, that is a good enough reason not to recommend it to everybody.

And I also think it’s a bit pricey. I don’t think Fire & Forget is prohibitive, but a lot of what you are paying for in my eyes is the strategy here. Pro Betting Club certainly don’t say much about what, if anything, is special about their selections. They simply exist to keep risk low and  bag that 1 point if profit.

So, do I think Fire & Forget is worth a look? Begrudgingly, I am going to say yes. But I cannot stress enough that the single most important element to making this worthwhile is taking advantage of that trial period. Having 7 days will really let you see if you are able to keep up with that pace of placing potentially 6 bets per day.

Furthermore, if it delivers in the way Pro Betting Club claim it does, then you’ll be up enough (so long as you are betting with a view to making £10 per point) to cover your monthly costs, all for a quid. That goes a long way towards mitigating that risk that I talked about earlier. It isn’t necessarily a long term solution, and it isn’t flawless, but it is definitely better than nothing.

 

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From: Simon Roberts