Flat Profits is a new horse racing tipster service that is operated by one Mike Long. He claims that his approach to betting has allowed him to make some very impressive profits through simple bets.
Introduction to Flat Profits
It can be quite easy to look at something like horse racing and just see it as this complete thing. Horse racing is horse racing, right? Except, of course, it isn’t. There are actually quite a few different disciplines, and this becomes incredibly relevant when we start to think about making a profit through the sport. Because, as I have often said, one of the main ways to actually produce consistent and long term profits through betting is simply to know more than the bookies. And the easiest ways to achieve this is pick a niche and stick to it.
This is all quite important to set the picture for today’s review subject, Flat Profits. A service that, as the name implies, looks at horse racing and is supposedly profitable. And those profits are very bloody impressive apparently. Even in the headlines, tipster Mike Long says “MY FLAT PROFITS FORMULA MADE ME £13,793.75 IN JUST 5 MONTHS LAST YEAR!”. Which is a very impressive looking number when you stop to consider the fact that Covid-19 brought racing to a grinding halt.
So, all of that is very impressive. Flat Profits seems to have some solid grounding, the results look impressive, and as I will talk about a little later on, there seems to be bags of evidence backing everything up. Which of course means that Mike Long is on to a winner, right? Well, unfortunately, I am not quite so convinced by this. Because as much as it really looks like Mike Long is offering a comprehensive package here, there are one or two things that make me question this a little.
What Does Flat Profits Offer?
So, what are you getting into with Flat Profits exactly? Well, it probably won’t come as any real surprise to learn that most of what Mike Long is doing here is all very straight forward. Which doesn’t have to be a bad thing. I mean, at the end of the day, you’re dealing with a single type of horse racing. I would be more concerned if this were a service that offered lots of interesting bet types and high odds horses.
First things first, let’s talk logistics and how Mike Long runs Flat Profits. This is pretty much exactly what you would expect from a modern independent tipster. Selections are sent out to you directly via email on a regular basis. Interestingly, the sales material really suggests that this will be on a daily basis (with a supposed average of 59/60 bets per month or 2-3 per day). However, the recent proofing shows that this simply isn’t likely to be the case.
Something that is definitely strong positive here is that the emails are typically sent out the evening before racing. Whilst this doesn’t sound like anything special, as well as opening up Flat Profits to a wider range of people (thinking those who work a 9-5), it also allows you to try and get some value on your bets. Rather unfortunately though, the content of those emails is… Well, the bare minimum if I’m really honest.
You see, you get details of the horse and the race, as you would expect. You also receive some insight into the odds that you should be betting at. At least, sort of. Because what Mike Long actually does is just tell you the odds that Betfair were offering at the time that he sends those bets out. That’s it. Unfortunately, this isn’t something that really benefits those who are following Flat Profits, and in my opinion, it feels a bit lazy.
And I feel like this is somewhat acknowledged in the sales material for the service. Because almost immediately after talking about this as some sort of feature, Mike Long then goes on to talk about how if you actually want to get the most out of Flat Profits then you should be shopping around for odds.
Where this is all quite frustrating is that you can easily check the selections out on an odds comparison site (something I would definitely recommend for Flat Profits). And honestly, I feel like Mike Long doing so and providing a range of odds would be much more beneficial than just one bookmaker. Things like this are minor, but they do set the tone for something quite important that I want to look at a little later on.
Now, let’s talk about those odds. According to Mike Long’s proofing, the average odds of his winning bets for 2021comes in at 5.71. This is a very impressive looking number, even when you consider the fact that you are looking exclusively at straight win bets. However, there are some questions about it. These also ultimately tie into that point that I want to discuss later.
But those aren’t the numbers that Mike Long really wants you to focus on. Instead, he prefers to show off winners that he has had that have come in at 25/1, 10/1, and 17/2 to name a few examples. With the clear implication here being that those big odds winners are something that you can expect.
With all of that talk out of the way, let’s talk staking. Something that I do think that Mike Long should be commended for is that all of the bets that he advises are to be backed to level stakes of just 1 point. This means that theoretically, you are getting a very accurate picture of what you can expect in terms of the results. A huge positive.
Another thing that I do rate about Flat Profits is that Mike Long recommends a 100 point betting bank. There has been a trend of late in which tipsters seem to try and push smaller betting banks, presumably to make services seem less expensive to get going with. Unfortunately though, the don’t tend to be very sustainable.
And finally, we can come to something that is really interesting to me. The claimed strike rate for Flat Profits. This comes in at 33.22% across 2020, and that is evidence in the proofing. 2021 is tracking slightly higher than this at around 38%. But I’m not entirely sold on these numbers. The fact is that given those average winning odds, that does seem quite high.
How Does Flat Profits Work?
I’ll admit that if you are taking Flat Profits on “face value”, it might look pretty good so far. I’ll even admit that everything seems to add up well enough. However, one of the single most glaring emissions here in my eyes is the simple fact that Mike Long doesn’t talk about his approach to betting. Pretty much at all. Which is frustrating to me because having that selection process and making an informed decision is very important.
Instead, we are simply told that his selections are “picked by narrowing down the races on a given day by following a simple set of rules. This allows me to concentrate on fewer races, ones where I know I have a better chance of picking the winner. I then go over the form and make my selection”. I know that is a lengthy quote, but in my mind, it just isn’t enough. The closest this comes to anything concrete is a mention of form.
None of this is really ideal in my mind. I don’t think that any tipster should be forced to break everything down step by step, but as a consumer you should have a right to make an informed decision about what you are getting into. And unfortunately, I am not convinced that you can necessarily do that here.
Now, all of this should theoretically be somewhat offset by the fact that Flat Profits comes with proofing. Mike Long gives us a spreadsheet which provides a breakdown of what he has bet on and how that has performed. However, it does still hold some concerns for me, namely the fact that it hasn’t been updated for about a week before the product launched, and there doesn’t seem to be much intent do so either.
What is the Initial Investment?
If you wanted to sign up to Flat Profits, there is only one option available. Mike Long is asking a one time cost of £49.99 (plus VAT) in order to receive his selections for the rest of the 2021 flat season. This looks very good value at less than £10 a month.
On top of this, if you find that this isn’t for you, there is a 30 day money back guarantee in place for Flat Profits as well. This is backed up by the fact that Mike Long is selling the service through Clickbank who are generally good at making sure that this is honoured.
What is the Rate of Return?
Last year, Mike Long claims that he made £13,793 in 5 months of betting. That is the headlining number. What is really impressive about this is that he was supposedly able to achieve this figure using £50 stakes. This means a profit of 275.86 points in less than a year. A year in which Covid-19 struck.
That would have put the service on course for almost 500 points of profit last year. For context on just how high this is, I would generally expect a tipster who is having a very good year to hit between 300 and 350 points. So, beating that by such a margin is an incredibly impressive sounding feat.
At the time of writing, Flat Profits is supposedly up 72.43 points for 2021. A number that is backed up by the proofing Mike Long provides, however, I remain firm that this is to be questioned. As such, I am rather doubtful that this kind of result will be replicated in the future.
Conclusion for Flat Profits
I know that it really seems like I’m very harsh on Flat Profits. On paper, Mike Long does almost everything right. And if I didn’t know any better at all, I might think that I were on to a proper winner here. I mean, why wouldn’t you? Big profits, high strike rate, seemingly plenty of evidence. And yet, I have talked a lot about questioning these results. So, why is that exactly?
Well, in this line of work, you have to look at a lot more than simply what is set down in front of you. Don’t get me wrong, not everything out there is questionable. There are plenty of legitimate tipsters out there whose word I will generally take on face value. But when random tipsters start popping up claiming to make as much in one flat season as some tipsters will make in 2 years, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to question it.
So, why am I so certain that the results for Flat Profits should be questioned? Well, at the back end of things, I am very familiar with the vendor who is selling this service. In 2020 they put out 11 different tipster services. All under different names, all from different tipsters, but all claiming similar very high levels of profit.
None of those services are available anymore, and I suspect that Flat Profits may fall into the same trap. And it is because I am aware of this past behaviour that I do question why the proofing hasn’t been updated for a week before launch. A genuine tipster who is performing consistently would love to show you another week of their strong betting results. So, the fact that Mike Long doesn’t is questionable.
The same can be applied to things like a lack of research on tips, a lack of insight into a selection process, a subscription that encourages you to stick around for the long term (or at least longer than Clickbank’s refund policy). And here’s the thing, I will also admit that I could be wrong. In fact, I would love to be. If Mike Long is reading this, I implore you to reach out with up to date proofing (especially post launch where everybody has seen the selections sent out).
But as it is, the things that could add some merit to the claims that Mike Long make are simply non-existent. And it is incredibly hard to look past that in my opinion. If you are the kind of person who really doesn’t mind a risky bet, then you might want to give this a go on the grounds that that money back guarantee is in place, but it isn’t something that I would recommend.
Which brings me to my closing thoughts on Flat Profits. As you might have guessed by now, I really wouldn’t look to recommend it. Whilst it is undoubtedly appealing at a glance, there are far too many holes in this for me to see something that is viable. It isn’t even like it is really that cheap. In my mind, £50 is quite a lot of outlay for what is on offer here. So, up until Mike Long actually reaches out and proves otherwise to me, I can’t see my mind changing here.
