Football Lay System is a new sport betting tipster service which is being offered by Lewis Carnegie. As the name suggests, it is based exclusively around football betting.
Introduction to Football Lay System
I have seen a recent surge when it comes to lay betting, a fact that I can only put down to the constant ebb and tide that comes with betting products. There are clear trends (lay betting was massive a few years ago) and when something takes hold, you can generally expect every man and his dog to get on board.
With this in mind and the Premier League about to kick off for the 2018/19 season, I am not overly surprised to see that something like Football Lay System has landed on my desk.
In fact, I would even go as far as to say that I am rather shocked that it has taken this long. And with headlines claiming to have made some very substantial profits over the last season and with seemingly very little risk, Football Lay System looks like it could be a no brainer for the upcoming year. So, let’s delve in, and see whether Lewis Carnegie can deliver on his claims.
What Does Football Lay System Offer?
In many respects, Football Lay System offers exactly what you would expect from any tipster service.
Selections are supposedly offered on a daily basis although I would anticipate some gaps in this. In fact, according to Lewis Carnegie selections are only issued to subscribers “whenever there are available bets. These are of course sent out directly via email with Football Lay System subscribers typically receiving selections on the morning of a game.
The bets themselves are actually wholly unremarkable. It goes without saying that all bets are lay bets (the name of Football Lay System makes this perfectly clear) which means you will need an account with a betting exchange. Lewis Carnegie mentions Betfair and you will undoubtedly get better liquidity here, but football is pretty commonly bet on and Smarkets, for example, charge much less in terms of commission.
The volume of bets is rather varied and the odds that are advised are between 2.00 and 4.00. This is important for reasons that I will get to.
In terms of the staking plan, Football Lay System, like most lay betting tipster services, sticks to level stakes. In this case, Lewis Carnegie recommends that you should bet £20 per bet in order to reach the results that he claims to have reached.
Given that a £250 betting bank is recommended to get started following Football Lay System, this does however mean a 12.5 point betting bank is apparently recommended.
This suggests to me that somewhere, somebody has perhaps overlooked how numbers add up in favour of numbers that fit marketing well.
In terms of the strike rate, Lewis Carnegie claims that he placed over 800 bets last season (actually 804 according to the proofing) using the same methods that underpin Football Lay System. Of these 804 bets, 100 of them lost (by which I mean the team layed won).
This means that the strike rate for the service should work out just shy of 87.5%. This is a spectacularly high number, even for a lay betting tipster.
How Does Football Lay System Work?
Lewis Carnegie introduces his sales pitch for Football Lay System by saying the following. “For the best part of my working life, I’ve been involved in data and statistical analysis”. By combining this with “betting on the spot that takes up the majority of his time”, i.e. football. This is the core underpinning of the service.
We are also told that Lewis Carnegie’s system has a lot of rules that need to be followed, and he’s sure that you’re too busy to sift through form and statistics.
In other words, we aren’t really being told what the selection process for Football Lay System entails. There is a bit of lip service with the right sounding words used, but nothing that suggests that Lewis Carnegie has any real insight that an average punter would not be privy to.
This is problematic to me for a number of reasons, not least of which is that I believe that you should have a genuine understanding of how things work if you are going to pay for them.
What is the Initial Investment?
There are 3 different options if you want to buy into Football Lay System. Now it is worth starting by saying that none of these are subscriptions per se. This means that you will have to rebuy the selections each period.
The option that Lewis Carnegie offers is one month of selections for a cost of £19 (plus VAT). The next option is to subscribe for 3 months. This is priced at £35 (plus VAT) per quarter. Finally, you can sign up for the whole 2018/19 season for £75 plus VAT.
It is worth noting that Football Lay System is being sold through Clickbank. This does mean that there is a full 60 day money back guarantee in place. To credit Lewis Carnegie, this is well marketed.
What is the Rate of Return?
Had you followed Lewis Carnegie’s betting advice to £20 stakes for the last season, you would have supposedly made £8,956 last season.
Here is what they are claiming as their current selection profits:
This amounts to an incredible points profit of 447.8 points. This is remarkably high and
whilst there is proofing provided for Football Lay System, I am somewhat cynical about this for a number of reasons that I will explore.
Conclusion on Football Lay System
On the surface of things, Football Lay System looks like a solid offering. In fact, I would go as far as to say that taken entirely at face value it is a very good service.
Lay betting is undoubtedly a profitable method of betting, especially when you manage odds properly. Naturally Lewis Carnegie strongly insinuates that he is capable of this with the service supposedly betting exclusively between 2.00 and 4.00.
This moves into the realm of questions about the proofing provide. First of all, these quoted odds are a very near little figure to work between. Very much an ideal, as it were. On top of this, there seems to be some discrepancy on a few randomly selected games and available odds.
All of this led me to look a little deeper at Football Lay System and this is rather unfortunately where the real problems become apparent.
Football Lay System is being marketed by quite a prolific product creator on Clickbank. This isn’t necessarily a problem in and of itself, however all of their other products have been and gone. Leaving in a much quieter fashion than they arrived.
This tells me that the services have failed before now and by extension, it seems entirely plausible that they will fail again in the future. I could of course be wrong and Football Lay System could be entirely above board etc. but honestly, I am pretty good with my gut feeling on these matters.
Whilst I can appreciate that there is some appeal to Football Lay System, I wouldn’t personally want to spend my money on it.
I think that there is simply not enough to adequately convince me that the service isn’t anything more than a quick cash grab (as opposed to the heavy affiliate marketing I have seen for the service, something that genuine products don’t tend to require). If you do want to take a punt on Football Lay System working out, I would stick to the monthly subscription.
That way you limit the amount that you lose out on and you will definitely be in a position to claim a refund.
