Football Profit Code Review

Football Profit Code is a new to market sports betting tipster service. It is operated by a trio of tipsters, Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty.

Introduction to Football Profit Code

When it comes to betting, there are a lot of different approaches that one can take and a number of different factors that can impact your success (or lack thereof). One of the things that I personally consider to be the most important element is carefully managing your risk. Something that I feel is far too often overlooked in favour of large profits.

Which brings me very neatly to Football Profit Code, because Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty claim that together, their tips are seemingly all but risk free. That is one hell of a claim to make, and looking at those claimed results, there is bags of potential here. In fact, I would go as far as to say that if the team can deliver on what they say, then you are very much on to a winner.

However, I want to apply a pretty big caveat to these claims. I won’t mince words here, I have been in this line of work for long enough that I know that things are unfortunately not always what they seem. And in fact, there is a combination of evidence, and a lack thereof to suggest that this may well be the case with Football Profit Code. Let’s jump straight in and see which it is.

What Does Football Profit Code Offer?

As far as tipster services go, I will start by saying that in many respects, there is nothing exceptional about Football Profit Code. Despite bringing together three different professional bettors in Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty, much of the service is a very typical affair. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t some… Interesting, shall we say, elements. However these ultimately count against the service.

Logistically, this is a very typical affair as far as tipster services go. Being a football tipster service, there is something of a limited scope for betting. This means that you won’t receive selections every day. This is further impacted by the fact that Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty focus almost exclusively on English football with a preference towards the Premier League and the EFL. There are also bets on international competitions.

Now, one of the things that I will admit to finding instantly off putting about Football Profit Code is the way selections are delivered. They are sent out via email (as you would expect), however, they are also issued as close to 3 hours before kick off.

This isn’t something that will happen every time, but it does mean that if you are following the service, you have to be pretty willing to drop everything to get those bets in. Obviously, this isn’t something that will work for a quite large number of people.

On the topic of this, when you do receive your email from Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty, the information that you receive is rather lacking. There are not advised odds or the like with the sales material for Football Profit Code simply saying that you should place the bet with “any bookie you want”. If you were going to follow the service, this makes something like Oddschecker a must.

Moving on to the bets themselves, there is a healthy dose of variety. The evidence that is provided for Football Profit Code suggests that you will be dealing with a variety of betting markets. These range from backing a team to win, backing a draw, and a number of goals markets. You can also expect these to be advised configured as a variety of different accumulators.

In terms of the volume of bets, it goes without saying that you don’t get bets every day. However, you would be forgiven for thinking that when there are games on (particularly over the weekend), you would expect to see quite a few bets.

This doesn’t seem to be the case however. For a bit more context on this, Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty claim that in the first half of the season, they advised 77 bets. This means that there is an average of some 4 bets per week. However, what I have seen of Football Profit Code suggests that you can probably expect a little more than this.

I won’t really talk about the odds here. The frustrating fact is that because Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty don’t provide any advised odds for Football Profit Code, results can vary massively from one punter to the next. Something that honestly, seems a little bit unprofessional to me.

Now, there are two things left that I want to talk about and they both really link in with that idea of risk that I was talking about before. First of all, there is the staking plan that is in place. Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty cite in the sales material that a £50 betting bank means placing £5 bets.

That means that every bet that you are placing takes a very eye watering 10% of your betting bank. And at those kinds of numbers, it doesn’t take a lot for your bank to be eradicated. There are a number of reasons for this that I will cover later, but I will say that profit here is very much dependent on winning often.

Which ultimately brings me to the final thing about Football Profit Code which is the strike rate. Now in theory, this is something that we should be celebrating. A big part of the sales material is based around a strike rate of 83% for the first half of the season.

Unfortunately, Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty provide no evidence that this is a number that can realistically be attained. The closest that you get to proofing for Football Profit Code are a few bets that have supposedly won in January. Even if these were genuine, there is no context for them and ultimately, I don’t see this as valid evidence. 

How Does Football Profit Code Work?

When it comes to how Football Profit Code works, Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty pull a classic move in telling you plenty about the service, whilst telling you absolutely nothing. So, what exactly are we told, and perhaps more importantly, what aren’t we told?

The crux of their pitch comes down to this. Between them, the team have over 20 years of experience in football betting. On top of this, they say that every bet “gets looked at and assessed by all three of us before it goes out to members”. And in theory, that sounds pretty good, right?

Unfortunately, what you aren’t being told is what the approach for those bets are. The fact is that the accumulators that are being advised are inherently quite high risk. As such, I don’t believe that it is unreasonable to want to have some understanding of where they come from. Especially when you are putting down 10% of your betting bank on each bet.

As mentioned, there is no proofing provided for Football Profit Code either which means that ultimately, you are very much having to take Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty’s word that they’re the real deal. This combined with that unsubstantiated but suspiciously high strike rate don’t really bode well for this service.  

What is the Initial Investment?

There are tow options that are available if you want to sign up to Football Profit Code. The first of these is a “30 Days Test Run” which is priced at £29. This is a one time cost that doesn’t auto renew. Alternatively, you can sign up  to Football Profit Code for the rest of the season for £67 plus VAT (no mention of whether this includes Euro 2020). 

Now, what is interesting about all of this to me is that Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty say that they offer a 30 day money back guarantee on their selections. However, the service is being sold through Clickbank. And on this particular product, they state that there is in fact a 60 day money back guarantee.

Whilst this may not seem like a massive thing, this kind of discrepancy is actually very concerning to me. Whilst there may be genuine reasons for this, I’m not convinced. But I will talk about this in more detail in my conclusion.

What is the Rate of Return?

When it comes to the profitability of Football Profit Code, we are told by Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty that it has made £18,500 so far this season. This is based off 238 points of profit. Now, given the nature of compounded staking and the fact that we aren’t told what the starting bank for this is, it is difficult to know whether or not this is attainable (although I am inclined to believe that mathematically it is.

Furthermore, we are told that in January alone, there has been over £2,500 of profit (which given the relatively early launch date looks pretty good). This is however based off stakes ranging from £160 to £180 per bet. Ultimately though, I am inclined to question this element of Football Profit Code.  

Conclusion for Football Profit Code

In theory, Football Profit Code looks like it might be a decent option. The core idea behind what Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty are doing makes a certain amount of sense. Three tipsters coming together to combine their knowledge sounds like a very reasonable idea.

But the unfortunate fact of the matter is that whilst all of it sounds reasonable, the fact is that there is a lot that I can quite clearly see as being wrong here. One of the things that I want to start by talking about is something that is simply inherent to the approach that Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty take with their betting.

That 10% staking plan is just incredibly risky. After all, that is just 10 losing bets before your bank is decimated. Now you won’t actually be placing 10 bets in a day with Football Profit Code, but that doesn’t mean that it is without risk. The fact is that if you lose 3 bets in a day, your betting bank has dropped by 30%.

Inevitably, the more your betting bank drops, the harder it is to recover those losses. It is a mathematical certainty that the more your stakes fall, the harder it is to recover to a point where you can ultimately be in profit. Sure, there is that ridiculously high strike rate that is in place, but that isn’t actually backed up anywhere by any form of proofing.

Moving away from this, I want to talk about the thing that probably most immediately stood out when I first glanced at Football Profit Code, which is the evidence provide. Those betting slips are key to selling the profit potential of the service. However, they are also highly questionable and seem to me like they might have been edited.

I wouldn’t like to say that this is definitive, as I could be wrong. I am by no means right all the time. But I’m pretty certain that this is the case. So much so that I’d be willing to bet that this is the case.

All of this is pretty off putting to me however there is another point that I want to return to which hugely nails home the point that this is questionable as well as backing up my previous theory. And that is the discrepancy between the 30 day and the 60 day money back guarantee.

Now again, I want to preface this by saying that I could be wrong. However, in my experience this kind of thing is a tactic that is often employed by unscrupulous internet marketers.

They offer a 30 day trial (replete with mentions of a 30 day money back guarantee). Once that trial has finished, if you are unhappy, you are out of luck. Of course, you could always contact Clickbank to claim your 60 day money back guarantee. But you would have to know that was an option in the first place. And if you didn’t know where to look, why would you know this? You certainly aren’t told.

So, what you have here is a tipster service that could, in theory, work. However, I am personally very inclined to say that it is unlikely that it will. There is simply too much about this service that doesn’t seem genuine. And by and large, when that is the case, they rarely turn out to be.

But even if I were to offer Josh Gill, Tom O’Hare and Brian Rafferty the benefit of doubt here, I don’t believe that this is a sustainable service. I’ve seen other tipsters that use a percentile staking plan before and ultimately, what happens is that after a few losses, you end up unable to recover. What remains is a long and drawn out decline of your betting bank.

All this means that Football Profit Code simply doesn’t work on multiple levels. And as such, I would be very inclined to give this a very wide berth.

 

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From: Simon Roberts