Footy Lay Bets is a new to market sports tipster service which is operated by Jordan Thomas. He claims that his football lay bets can produce some very good looking profits, seemingly with little risk.
Introduction to Footy Lay Bets
The Premier League is BACK! God am I excited for football to start back up again. And so are plenty of punters, which of course means plenty of betting services coming out of the woodwork. Inevitably, some of these will be better than others, but I’ll tell you what does make something stand out. Big profits. And that is exactly what is being claimed of the service I am looking at today.
Creator Jordan Thomas says that Footy Lay Bets is “The most profitable Football Lay Betting service available online!”. And if you believe his results, then you may well be inclined to agree. I’ll go into it in more detail below, but the headline for this service reads “In 6 months of football this season, using £25 stakes, I’ve made £7,577.15 in TAX-FREE Profit!”. That’s a lot of profit. So of course, it would be remiss of me to not give this a look.
With that said, I will say that I have some very strong doubts about Footy Lay Bets as well. There are a number of reasons for this, none of which can really be neatly summed up here, but I will cover them. So, with quite a lot of ground to cover, let’s jump right into this and see whether or not Jordan Thomas can walk the walk, as well as talk the talk.
What Does Footy Lay Bets Offer?
One of the things that I really want to start by talking about is establishing what exactly Footy Lay Bets is about. There is a lot of talk about betting services and the like, but let’s call a spade a spade for a moment. Jordan Thomas is simply offering a tipster service. And in many ways, it is a straight forward affair.
This starts when you talk about the logistics of Footy Lay Bets. As you would expect from a modern tipster service, selections are sent out directly via email. However, as you would also expect from something football based, these aren’t necessarily the most… consistent of things.
Now, Jordan Thomas says that all selections are sent out the night before kick off for the weekends or early in the morning for midweek games. Truth be told, given that Footy Lay Bets is a lay betting service, that doesn’t really mean a lot. Sure, there is a certain sensibility to minimising the odds that you are laying bets at. But it doesn’t affect how much money you will make here.
Building on that a little bit, it is worth noting that because Footy Lay Bets is a football lay betting service, there are just generally not particularly big odds involved. For some context on this, I haven’t seen a single bet in the proofing that is layed at odds higher than 4.5 (which means paying out 3.5 times your stake).
And just to return to those emails a little bit. I will quite happily say that they are rather minimal, however, the fact that you are lay betting doesn’t really make much difference in the grand scheme of things.
With all of that said, I do think it’s important to acknowledge the fact that this is a lay betting service. As such, you will require an account with a betting exchange. Of course, Betfair is generally the recommended option here as there is simply more liquidity to be had in the markets. However, Jordan Thomas does say that there are alternative types of bets you can place with bookies if you prefer that offer similar outcomes.
Interestingly, Jordan Thomas suggests that we are going to be very busy over the coming months. Something that is… Well, it’s a little bit questionable in my opinion. This is mostly down to questions that I have about the risk management element of the service. You see, over a weekend, you can potentially see as many as 20 bets.
That is a hell of a lot, and if you hit a few losers during this period, it can massively impact your profit and loss. In actual fact, this is something that we’ve seen from Footy Lay Bets in the proofing. You see, Jordan Thomas is currently tipping at much smaller numbers (as you’d expect), and during this time he has seen 6 losers between 16th of May and the 11th of June out of 17 bets.
These losses amounted to a total of 13.6 points in this period. Now imagine scaling those numbers up every weekend. I will admit, I am working in hypotheticals here, but these numbers are a long way from the results that Jordan Thomas makes such a song and dance about in the sales material for Footy Lay Bets.
This brings me to the final points that need to be examined here. Firstly, the strike rate. Jordan Thomas claims that his average strike rate works out at over 85%. That is about what I would expect to see from a lay betting service and it is roughly in line with the proofing. However, I do want to note that not just has the proofing simply stopped updating, but the most recent run of results (post Covid-19) are much lower than this coming in at closer to 65%.
Finally, I want to talk about the staking side of things. AS you would expect from any lay betting tipster service, Footy Lay Bets employs a straight forward level staking system. 1 point per bet is more than enough as you have to consider the potential drawdown if you lose. One of the major problems with lay betting.
For this, we are recommended a starting bank of £100. What we aren’t provided with is any context for this. Given that Jordan Thomas’s proofing is at £10 per bet as a minimum, should 10 points as a starting bank suffice? With a theoretical strike rate of 85%, maybe. But the truth is that there is very little guidance on this element of Footy Lay Bets.
Personally, I would say that if you were going to follow Footy Lay Bets, I would expect to have a much bigger betting bank available. It seems extreme for lay betting but I’d probably be looking at 100 points, just because I really don’t believe that Jordan Thomas’s bets are as low risk as it is made out to be.
How Does Footy Lay Bets Work?
There are two elements to how Footy Lay Bets works. Firstly there is the fact that this is a lay betting service. This is very much key to selling the service with Jordan Thomas leaning on the fact that lay betting is generally lower risk and is very easy to follow along with. I have no real bones with this (although I don’t think simply lay betting produces a good system in and of itself).
With that said, what we don’t get any information on is what is actually involved with the selection process. Jordan Thomas hits all of the usual notes in his marketing material talking about how other systems are “ bul$#@&” and that he has happened on a way to turn betting from a hobby into a profession. This includes a ludicrous statement of “stealing” from other punters…
Effectively, what we are treated to here is a narrative in which Jordan Thomas really tries to sell you his understanding of betting. Unfortunately, what he doesn’t demonstrate at any point is an understanding of why teams are being selected. This is hugely important and cannot be overlooked. Because no other element of a tipster service matters if that tipster isn’t identifying decent bets.
Frankly, I don’t even buy into the proofing as a demonstration of what to expect longer term. The fact is that there is a lot that is wrong with Footy Lay Bets. Some of which is very apparent, as I’ve just mentioned. Some of which is much easier to miss and I will explore a little later on.
The real takeaway from all of this though is that if you do choose to sign up to Footy Lay Bets, you are always simply taking Jordan Thomas’s word that he knows what is going on. At no point is this ever really demonstrated beyond a brief description of what lay betting is, and what it entails. That is hugely concerning to me.
What is the Initial Investment?
Jordan Thomas has just two options available if you want to sign up to Footy Lay Bets. The first of these is access to selections for the rest of the season. This is sold as “3 Months Access” and it is priced at £30 plus VAT.
Alternatively, we are told that you can sign up for a full year of access for just £59 plus VAT. Obviously, this represents better value despite the larger outlay (although that is debatable given the wider structure of Footy Lay Bets, something I will be getting to very shortly).
Both options come with a full 60 day money back guarantee which to be fair to Jordan Thomas is one of the few useful things he highlights. This is backed up by the fact that Footy Lay Bets is being sold through Clickbank which means that you shouldn’t generally have too many problems claiming a refund if this is required.
What is the Rate of Return?
Obviously the most important thing with any tipster service is just how much money you can make. Jordan Thomas’s attention grabbing headline says that he made £7,577.15 in 6 months. Using those £25 stakes, his means an incredible 303.1 points of profit. This means that Footy Lay Bets is theoretically set to end the season on about 450 points of profit.
These numbers should be all above board as Footy Lay Bets is fully proofed, but I can’t help but feel like this is a lot more to this picture than there initially seems to be. As such, I am hugely sceptical when it comes to Jordan Thomas’s results.
Conclusion for Footy Lay Bets
There are two very distinctive elements in looking at the broader picture with Footy Lay Bets. Firstly, there is the service itself. In theory, it doesn’t look too bad at all. £36 just isn’t a lot of money to pay out for a tipster service, especially one that should be relatively low risk and has seemingly demonstrated a profit.
Of course, the key words there are should be and seemingly. I will wholeheartedly admit that the claims that Jordan Thomas makes aren’t outside the realm of possibility at a glance, but I’m not certain that they hold up to scrutiny.
First things first, let’s talk about that strike rate. Here we see an average within the proofing provided by Jordan Thomas of some 87%. A little bit higher than the claims that are made about the past results. And these numbers are arguably skewed by what is really a pretty bad month since the Bundesliga restarted. So, these numbers could be argued to be even higher.
Turning to the profit, we are faced with that figure of 303 points in 6 months. I’ll be blunt here. That number is in line with what I would expect to see from a decent tipster service in a year. So, given that Jordan Thomas is hypothetically set to wrap up at a substantially higher rate than this… Well, it just seems a bit too good to be true.
Now I really feel the need to qualify my point on these. Because I mentioned it, but rather skipped over the fact that the proofing hasn’t updated since the product launched. Now this suggests to me that there is a pretty bad run of form. Why else would a tipster want to go out of their way to obfuscate information like this?
I’ll admit. That sounds… well, a bit conspiracy nut. But it really isn’t. Which brings me to the second point for Footy Lay Bets. Namely that the vendor behind the service is one that is well known to me. Now, this is something that I encounter quite often, however, in this particular case, they recently launched another football lay betting service.
This didn’t really perform and readers here on this very site had some choice words to say about it. None of them were very good. In fact, several people were talking about the fact that they were claiming refunds for the service.
Surely, you would hope, Footy Lay Bets isn’t just another launch of the same service with a different name. And yet, that unfortunately seems to be the case. The proofing for the two services is the same (at least, up until the older service stopped updating) which suggests that if there is a method, the same one is being used.
All of this, when it’s combined, creates a service that probably not surprisingly, I can’t really recommend. Even putting that second point to one side for a moment, it is quite apparent to me that this isn’t really something that I would look to recommend. Namely down to a very distinctive lack of evidence.
But frankly, I really wouldn’t be ignoring that second point. More than anything else, this is a hugely concerning development that I think speaks volumes about the wider service. As such, even if you were considering this, I genuinely cannot advise enough giving this a very wide berth.