Premium Lays is a rather long standing horse racing tipster service that is being offered through the Pro Betting Club stable of tipsters. Despite some hiccups, there seems to be some solid results here.
Introduction to Premium Lays
There was a brief period of time where lay betting was everywhere. All of the numerous charlatans came out of the woodwork, promising to help you make more money through betting against outcomes. At that time, I was newer to all of this and I admit that I got a little bit caught up in the hype. These days though, I acknowledge that whilst there is undoubtedly money to be made through lay betting, it is its own art form. It takes a lot of skill, knowledge, and nuance to guide through to long term profits and is a long way from a shortcut.
Like I said, there was a point where lay betting was everywhere, but these days, not so much. This does mean that when one ands on my desk that has ultimately done pretty well for itself… well, it’s hard not to pay attention to it. Which of course brings me to Premium Lays. This is a rather interesting service that carries potential. A statement that is borne, rather ironically from the fact that Pro Betting Club openly show it has actually recently had a big losing month. That isn’t something that I get to say very often…
Now, I don’t want to sugar coat or try to skip over this. Premium Lays has had a significant losing month. The importance of this will be discussed a little later on. And I will say that it does have a quite significant impact on the wider service. It provides a lot of food for thought as well. Especially when you start looking at what Pro Betting Club are asking here… Whilst it might sound like I’m being negative, this is a service that is ultimately very realistic for a lot of people, and I think it is only fair to be clear about the problems here as well as the positives.
What Does Premium Lays Offer?
Whilst Premium Lays is undoubtedly a fundamentally very straightforward tipster service, one of the things that stands out to me immediately is that there is variance. This might seem like a bit of a strange thing to “stand out”, but as I want to explore this is a very good thing in my eyes. Especially when it’s paired with that simple approach that Pro Betting Club have taken here.
So, first things first, let’s talk about the management of things. Pro Betting Club have been around for some time and I think that it’s pretty fair to say that they know how to manage a tipster service at this point. And that experience is what is reflected when I talk about the simplicity of Premium Lays.
As is typical for pretty much any modern tipster service, selections for Premium Lays are sent out directly via email. They don’t necessarily contain the most information and insight, but I don’t feel like that is necessarily as pertinent with a lay betting service as with a service where you are simply backing a horse to win.
This is because when you are laying a horse, whilst it is undoubtedly better to lay at the lowest odds that you can, it doesn’t really affect your profits. By this I mean that your returns will ultimately always be the same. Where the differences do come is in your potential liability should a bet lose. As such, you should try to get the lowest odds you can, but it isn’t necessary.
In fact, the only thing that is really necessary is sticking to the maximum odds that Pro Betting Club recommend. This is 10.0 which I feel is a pretty reasonable middle ground. Ultimately, your liability isn’t ever too significant (9 times your stake). Especially not when you take the time to consider that the average odds for Premium Lays are just 7.68.
Building on this, the odds range here (around 4,0 all the way up 10.0) means that you still have a reasonable chance of laying a horse that loses. This kind of balancing act is really quite important and I think that Premium Lays walks the line pretty well. Some services will aim mostly to minimise liability, but end up costing more simply because you lose more often.
Nowhere is this more apparent than when you look at the strike rate. Of course, you’d always expect this to be higher. It’s a mathematically sound principle that picking a horse to not win is going to be more likely than picking a horse to win. But I’ve seen a lot of laying service struggle with this. Not Premium Lays though. The proofing provided ultimately shows that there is an average win rate of 89.5%. That is impressive.
With all of that out of the way, let’s talk a little bit about the bets themselves. As is obvious, this is a lay betting service. I’m mentioned that plenty of times now. Something that I want ot reiterate however is that you will want to have an account with a betting exchange. Whilst options like Smarkets will charge you less commission, most people will opt for Betfair’s Exchange as it has higher liquidity.
As a final aside, I want to touch on something that is worth keeping in mind, and that is the betting bank that is required. Realistically, a bank of at least 100 points is probably a must have for Premium Lays. As well as allowing you to absorb the losses when they happen, you also need to have the money in your betting bank to cover all bets. So, if your potential liability for the day were 27 points, you need that in your bank to place the bets.
Of course, those are intimidating numbers. Especially if you have very busy days. Mostly though, the proofing Pro Betting Club provide shows that Premium Lays is only really advising 2 or 3 bets on most days. There may be odd occasions where you have more than that, but it really is a rarity.
How Does Premium Lays Work?
Whilst I generally think that Pro Betting Club do a decent job as far as a tipster stable go, there is one thing that is always problematic with their services. Unfortunately, Premium Lays also falls into this same category. The big issue lies in the fact that they don’t talk at all about what the tipster behind a service is actually doing to find selections. Inevitably, this does count as a pretty serious negative.
Here’s the thing. I do believe that the tipster behind Premium Lays has some sort of approach in place. The regularity of things like the odds, the volume of bets, and a few other things lead me to believe that horses aren’t just being picked out of a hat. And to be honest, whilst I will always call Pro Betting Club out for not providing a bit more information about their tipsters, I doubt they would allow this. There is a reputation in place, and it must be upheld.
My big issue is that the fundamentals of any lay betting service are simple enough. You pick a horse to lose, which is easier than picking a horse to win. But where does it go from there? The fact of the matter is that I’ve always felt that as a punter, you should have some idea of what you are getting into. Unfortunately, I don’t believe that you can really say this with Premium Lays.
With that said, there is mitigation. Pro Betting Club provide very comprehensive proofing for Premium Lays. This provides you with a full breakdown of all bets, odds, and a host of additional information. Whilst this isn’t a replacement for that knowledge and understanding of what a tipster is doing, it is certainly more than some tipsters provide, and it gives you an idea of what you can expect in the long term.
What is the Initial Investment?
I’ll be really honest and say that one of my concerns around Premium Lays is the costs involved. Because it isn’t cheap. Pro Betting Club are asking £39.50 per month for access to selections. There is marginally better value available if you sign up for a full quarter which will set you back £89.50. Now, these costs aren’t prohibitive. They are well within the range I’d expect to pay for a tipster service. But there are some questions about long term value for money.
With all of that said, I do feel the need to point out that at the time of writing, Premium Lays is available at 50% off. This means £19.75 per month or £44.75 per quarter. Importantly, Pro Betting Club suggest that your subscription will be honoured at this rate for the future. Specifically, it is referred to as a “lifetime offer online”.
Of note is that whilst Pro Betting Club don’t mention it, they are actually selling Premium Lays through Clickbank. In this case, Clickbank offer a full 60 day money back guarantee that you can claim through them. As such, there is also some respite if you find that this isn’t for you.
What is the Rate of Return?
Now it’s time to talk numbers. And this is where I feel like Premium Lays becomes a little bit polarising. First things first, Pro Betting Club’s proofing shows that since June 2020, there has been a profit produced of 132.34 points. That doesn’t set the world alight, but lay betting rarely does. The actual profit per month ranges quite significantly from less than a point of profit all the way up to highlights in excess of 20 points.
There is however an elephant in the room. Premium Lays has had 3 losing months. One of these was about 4 points. Not ideal, but not terrible. Another was less than a point. That is pretty negligible in the grand scheme of things. The real concern is that in August, Pro Betting Club show a loss of 25.25 points. When your profit on each winning bet is just 0.95 points, that is a lot to recoup. Hopefully, there will be no more losers of that magnitude in the future.
Conclusion for Premium Lays
So, Premium Lays is a mixed bag. I think that’s probably pretty fair to say. There have been some very clear ups and downs. Quite literally when you start to chart the results. And that 25 point loss is the one that it’s easy to get hung up on. Here’s the thing though, I do believe that there is still something good going on here. At least, conditionally.
As an average, Premium Lays has produced 8.2 points of profit per month. Without that losing month, the average comes in at almost 10 points per month. That is a respectable number. Now this isn’t paid out consistently in so much as you are getting that each and every month. But by and large, I think that it’s fair to say that isn’t a bad result. The question is will we see another massive losing month?
It would be unreasonable to discount that. It’s happened one, it can happen again. The fact is that a big part of that big loss from Premium Lays was just a few unfortunate days which saw 5 bets losing out of 6. And because you’re lay betting, it takes a long time to build your bank back up. But I do think that this can happen. Because whilst Pro Betting Club show that loss, there have been a few months that have been equally as profitable.
So far, it’s a bit of a strange one with strong pros and cons. And unfortunately, that is also set to continue. One of the biggest issues that I talked about earlier is the value for money in Premium Lays, or rather the lack thereof. You see, depending on what you’re paying for tips depends on how viable this will be in the long term.
You see, I typically work on £10 stakes when I’m calculating results and value. That is an amount that I think most people are comfortable betting at, and it gives everything a fair chance for profit. So, on average, you’re making £82 a month. That isn’t much, I’ll admit. But ultimately, Premium Lays is low risk, and this kind of return is theoretically sustainable.
The problem is if you’re paying £40 per month for £82 of profit, you’re actually making less than £10 per week when you factor in your subs. That isn’t much at all. In fact, there are arguments to be made that it isn’t really worth the time. Now, if you are able to get Premium Lays on the half price offer, you’re looking at £62 per month. It isn’t a drastic improvement, but it’s a little more worthwhile.
So, let’s talk about the bottom line. Is this worthwhile? I think if you’re thinking very long term, possibly. You have to manage your expectations, but I do think that you can profit in the long term with a pretty low risk (let’s not forget that strike rate of almost 90%). And I doubt Pro Betting Club will be shutting this down in the immediate future.
Personally, I don’t think Premium Lays is for me. But that doesn’t mean that this is something that has no worth. For some people, this will be a really decent service. Especially if you can get it at the right price. Ultimately though, it is always worth keeping in mind that if you don’t mind taking on more risk, there are services out there that can produce more profit.
