Happy Days Review – Betfan

Introduction to Happy Days

Whenever Betfan release something new, it is always interesting to look at. This is mostly down to a historic approach of picking up tipster services and releasing them after an initial good run. Quite how they perform in the longer term is something that is a very different story.

None the less, Happy Days is here and I would be lying if I said that it hadn’t produced some impressive looking results. Furthermore, there does appear to be at least some semblance of consistency. As such, I am inclined to say that there is actually some potential to what James and Betfan are offering here, at least at a glance.

With that having been said, there are some rather concerning gaps in terms of the results and criticisms. They are also significant enough that it would be naïve and probably a little irresponsible to not bring them up. All of which leads to the question of whether Happy Days is a tipster service that deserves to be on your radar?

What Does Happy Days Offer?

There are a lot of different ways that I see tipsters approaching their services but James (who is ultimately behind Happy Days) seems to be of the old school. There are a lot of different reasons for this that I will explore over the course of this article, but I will start by saying his is potentially a very refreshing angle.

Now, in terms of what you can expect from Happy Days, this is a Betfan product. As such, it is bang up to date in terms of the logistical and management side of things. For example, when selections are issued, they are sent out in a myriad of different ways, each of which will likely work better for you depending on who you are.

As you would expect, they are issued directly to subscribers via email, typically between 10am and 11.30am. They are also uploaded to a Happy Days member’s area on the Betfan website, and are also made available through Betfan’s app (which is available on both iOS and Android). As you would expect, these are sent out the same time as the emails.

The quality of information is decent enough and there is more than enough provided to get your bets placed and to have an idea of what to do. This does include staking information, a topic I will pick up shortly. It is noteworthy that the proofing for Happy Days is to BOG, and as such, it would be recommended that you try and bet with a bookmaker which offers this.

Moving on to the bets themselves, Betfan describe James as being a (entirely self proclaimed, I should add) specialist in single win and each way selections. Whilst these do make up the majority of bets involved with Happy Days, there are also a number of smaller accumulators too. You should also keep in mind that you are looking at far more win bets than each way.

Naturally, all of this lends itself to some pretty varied odds, and the range is generally quite substantial. By and large, you can expect to back horses at odds going up to around 6/1, however there are also a number of bets involving double digit odd. By contrast, there are also odds that come in at lower than evens.

In terms of the volume of bets, this is a very manageable service. I might even be inclined to say that James is quite selective for Happy Days. Most days won’t throw up more than 3 bets, and even on a busier day you should only have 5 selections to back.  

All of this is somewhat fortunate as the staking plan that is in place for Happy Days has the potential to get pricey. The fundamental idea behind it is a very straight forward one. James says that he weighs up the strength  of bets before deciding how much to bet on each horse. In other words, “the higher the risk the lower the bet”.

What this actually means in terms of the numbers for Happy Days is that you will be staking anywhere from 1 point to 5 points on a given bet. In and of itself that might not seem like a huge amount but you will definitely see those larger numbers on a pretty regular basis meaning that they can start to add up.

Now, lastly, I want to talk a little bit about the strike rate. It is always difficult to know what to expect when you get a service that is as varied as Happy Days is. None the less, a figure of 34.98% is a very respectable one for any service which is ultimately based around backing horses.  

How Does Happy Days Work?

In terms of how Happy Days works, there is a frustrating lack of information in my opinion. We are told by Betfan that James has “enjoyed the thill[sic] of the Sport of Kings for over 50 years”. We are also told that he attended race tracks in the North betting on weekends. So far, typical behaviour for a casual punter.

After retiring, the sales material goes on to say that he has spent 6 years devoting “most of [his] time making money from racing”. This supposedly involves “a good few hours research every morning”.

The astute amongst you will notice that whilst all this says a lot, it doesn’t actually tell us much. That is hugely disappointing in my opinion. I know that no tipster wants to give away their selection process, nor should they be expected to. But I would like to know that they at least have something that they are following rather than guess work.

This is particularly applicable in my opinion due to the somewhat divisive nature of the results that have been attained so far. Now, there is an argument that Betfan provide full proofing for Happy Days, however this is only 3 complete months of data.

Given the fact that launching after a particularly good run seems to be a part of Betfan’s business model as well, I am not hugely inclined to rely on this as an indicator of potential future performance either. There are simply a lot of questionable elements surrounding Happy Days if you ask me.

What is the Initial Investment?

Betfan have four different options that are available if you want to subscribe to Happy Days. These are a weekly, monthly, quarterly, and 6 monthly subscription. It is worth keeping in mind when you consider these that the monthly subscription actually runs for 28 days which means you will pay this 13 times in a given year.

In terms of the pricing, your weekly subscription is priced at £10, the “monthly” subscription is priced at £30, the quarterly subscription is priced at £84.50, and finally, the 6 monthly subscription is priced at £143.

You should keep in mind that all of these numbers are without VAT. Also noteworthy is the fact that whilst there is an increase in value for longer subscription lengths, this isn’t particularly substantial. In fact, tying yourself to Happy Days for 6 months will save just £37 (a figure which Betfan refer to as “massive”. I will beg to differ with them on this).

It is also important to factor in that there is no real money back guarantee offered on Happy Days either. Betfan do say that they will review refund requests, but they do not typically offer these.

What is the Rate of Return?

Since it launched, Betfan are showing an overall profit of 130.67 points of profit over some 4 months. This is all pretty good looking, however there are a few things to consider. Mostly that over that, approximately 125 of these occurred in just 2 months (June and July). Given that the preceding months made just 10 points of profit, this makes for a very mixed bag.

Perhaps the better reflection of the results is the ROI for Happy Days. This stands at 27.92% which is undoubtedly a strong number, however you should keep in mind that this is undoubtedly skewed by June and July.

Conclusion for Happy Days

Whenever it comes to something new from Betfan, I feel like there are always two different questions that you need to be asking yourself, and Happy Days highlights this perfectly. First of all, there is the question of whether or not a service has been launched off the back of a few particularly good months.

The second question (which is very much related) that you have to ask yourself is whether or not the results that have been generated are capable of being reproduced in the future as well. In the case of Happy Days, I can’t help but feel that the short answer to this will be a negative one.

Here’s the thing, in the 5 months that Betfan have been proofing Happy Days, there have been 2 hugely profitable months, however when you look at these, you must also factor in that this isn’t exactly to level stakes. And given that there is a predilection towards those higher numbers, I’m not convinced that they are necessarily a particularly accurate reflection of results.

Honestly, I would loved to have seen Happy Days perform well. I don’t ever want to see tipsters fail, but I do have to give consideration to what is realistic and what is not. Now, I will admit that I’ve been a bit hard on Happy Days so far, and I will also say that ultimately, there has only been one losing month. That’s a pretty good thing.

Another thing that is worth mentioning is whilst I genuinely believe that Betfan have simply pushed this out with a view to making a quick profit off the back of some good results, there is the chance these results can happen again. Two good months are as likely to be down to a good tipster as luck.

But all of this is conjecture. If I were completely honest, what I would do at this time is sit back and see how Happy Days performs over the next 3 months or so if I were considering it. This is mostly to see whether or not those results are genuinely capable of repeating, in no small part down to the costs involved.

The fact of the matter is that Happy Days is not cheap, and if you are paying a lot of money for a tipster service, then you want to know that it will perform. As it stand, Betfan simply don’t do enough to convince me that it is worth those costs at the time.  

 

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From: Simon Roberts