Home Form Review – PuntHub

Home Form is a relatively new to market sports betting tipster service which has been launched by the PuntHub stable of tipsters. The service has somewhat mixed results, but ultimately, does carry potential.

Introduction to Home Form

Something that I have talked about many times before now (and I will no doubt talk about many times again) is how do you judge the profitability of a service? And it’s an interesting question that has sparked a lot of debate when I’ve weighed up services before now. I’ve spoke before about low profits, only to be lambasted by people arguing that a 5% ROI isn’t bad. I still disagree with that statement.

But as a professional, I’m always interested to see what other perspectives exist and I will admit to softening my viewpoint a little bit over time. And it is entirely because of this that something like Home Form has ended up on my radar. Because this is a very interesting tipster service with some incredibly interesting results. And of course, when I say that they’re interesting, what I really mean is that even by PuntHub’s own records, they’re a mixed bag.

The thing is, as I’ve already alluded to, there is a very operative word when you look at Home Form and that is potential. This isn’t necessarily a service that I think will work for everybody. I’ll be very upfront about that. But what PuntHub are showing is a service that for the right kind of person, this may actually be a bit of a bargain.

What Does Home Form Offer?

It isn’t often that I find myself saying this, but Home Form is something that is genuinely different to anything else on the market right now. Now as somebody who has looked at probably thousands of tipster services, that isn’t something that I say lightly. Of course, simply being different doesn’t necessarily mean that it is better.

Now, before I start to get into detail on the bets themselves (which are a massive part of what makes this stand out), I want to talk a little bit about the management side of things. The involvement of PuntHub is not a bad thing at all. They are not necessarily the biggest name in tipster management, but they are respectable enough. And the way that they operate services is generally pretty decent.

As you would expect, the selections are made available via email. That is pretty much standard for any modern tipster service. However, PuntHub also issue selections for their service through the Telegram app. For those who aren’t familiar with this, it is a mobile messaging app that allows you to very quickly receive messages directly to your phone.

This is of course probably your best option if you’re following Home Form, although it isn’t necessarily necessary. You see, PuntHub state that selections are typically made available “a few days before the matches take place”. And of course, this allows you plenty of time to get your bets placed.

Which brings me to the bets. And honestly, it’s almost this is the area where Home Form really starts to open up and stand out from the crowd. You see, on a given week you may receive anywhere from just 2 selections, potentially going as high as 5 selections. So far, so good, right?

But the advice on how to put those bets together can then mean placing as many as 10 doubles (on those busier days) and a 5 game acca. And pretty much all of the weeks have some kind of variation on this.  This is ultimately quite important for a number of reasons that I will discuss later. But the key one seems to be adding value.

You see, based off PuntHub’s proofing, all but one selection has been advised at a price below 2.0. That’s fair enough, this is football betting. But there is still a massive number of bets that are priced below 1.6. Of course, once you start to double those bets up, the odds increase and there does start to become reasonable profit.

For example, a double on Manchester United and AS Roma (priced at 1.4 and 1.44 respectively) turned an overall profit of 1.14 points. That still isn’t a lot of profit in some respects, but it represents an increase of some 35%. And when you’re applying that across a whole season, it really starts to add up.

Now I will admit that all of this can mean that it feels like you aren’t really getting a lot for your money with Home Form. After all, you’re effectively getting one set of bets to place each week. But I really don’t see that as a bad thing. The fact is that with a well reasoned betting system selectivity is better than just throwing it at the wall and seeing what sticks.

Another criticism that I think can be quite fairly leveled at Home Form is that this can mean staking quite a large amount on a weekly basis. Whilst it is generally recommended by PuntHub that you stake level stakes of 1 point on all bets, there is no ignoring the fact that on those busier weeks, you’re staking 11 points at a time.

How Does Home Form Work?

One of the bigger problems that I have with products from within the PuntHub group is that there is almost never any insight into what the selection process entails. And that applies to Home Form as well, however it is probably to a lesser degree here than other services. Because we at least get some information. It’s right there in the name.

So Home Form is, not surprisingly, about home teams winning. A strategy that in many respects, is quite a sensible one. It is called the home advantage for a reason. Of course, when you are backing a home team to win, they will generally be favoured (barring exceptions with an obvious outsider), which of course has a knock on effect on the value that you can get.

And I believe that this is where the types of bets that are advised play a big part. Because the fact of the matter is that they very clearly do their job of boosting the odds where it is required. Now you do also take on a bit of additional risk when you do, but I also think that it’s worth noting that Home Form doesn’t tend to provide bets that are what I would call “controversial choices”.

Ultimately, when you combine this with some quite comprehensive proofing, I don’t see the lack of information surrounding the selection process to be a deal breaker. Of course I would like to have seen more information here. I don’t think that is an unreasonable request. But the fact of the matter is that you are, at the very least, coming into Home Form with some idea of what to expect.

What is the Initial Investment?

Pricing wise, there is only one option available for Home Form. PuntHub are asking a one time payment of £99 which will give you access to selections for a full season. Now this doesn’t work out as a huge amount on a per month basis (about £11), but the fact that you have to pay it all out in one go is a bit of an ask in my opinion.

I say this specifically considering the point that Home Form doesn’t come with any sort of money back guarantee. Now this shouldn’t count too much against PuntHub. That’s quite commonplace in terms of the wider tipster industry. But it does add extra consideration to that outlay.  

What is the Rate of Return?

Of course, none of that should ultimately matter, so long as Home Form can produce a decent profit. However, we are told that the 19/20 season saw a profit of just 64 points. So far for this season, Home Form is showing a loss of 6.22 points for August and September (to date). That is quite disappointing when you consider that is some 10% of the profit to date.  

With that said, the ROI is supposedly somewhat more impressive. Now, this say around 31% which is the number that PuntHub claim for Home Form. However, this has dropped. And at the time of writing, it is a much more modest 25.45%. Still a long way from bad, but not nearly as strong a result either.  

Conclusion for Home Form

Sometimes I look at a service and I want to like it. Sometimes, I really want to like it. And that is something that is applicable to Home Form, if I’m honest. Because if nothing else, the tipster behind the service is doing something that is different to pretty much everything else on the market. And they’re turning a profit.

Unfortunately, and this is quite important, that profit just isn’t a whole lot. Even putting to one side that Home Form has lost money for August and is currently in the red for September, it only made 64 points in a season. That’s a monthly average of just 7.1 points.  Which might be acceptable if it were delivered consistently, but it wasn’t.

The fact is that even last season, PuntHub’s own proofing shows a series of 4 straight losing months. There is possibly some argument to be made that March wasn’t a full month (because of Covid-19), but it really isn’t a strong one compared to the numbers that are shown for Home Form.

Now there may be some mitigation. The biggest losing month that Home Form has encountered is just 10.06 points. That isn’t a huge amount. I’ve certainly seen other services lose a lot more than this. And when Home Form has been profitable, it has seen 3 months return more than 20 points. This highlights the potential to me.

But the biggest issue here is that it just isn’t the kind of potential that warrants the costs that PuntHub are asking. £11 per month isn’t a lot of money. And if Home Form were billed at this on a monthly basis, there may be an argument for saying that it’s worth a bit of a punt. Simply put though, that isn’t the pricing structure.

The fact is that you are being asked to pay £99 for a tipster service that has lost money more often than it has made money. Whilst there is that overall profit, it’s barely worth talking about in many respects. And a lot of the reason that it is impacted so hard is the same thing that I like Home Form for.

Because yes, the bets are interesting. And yes, the strategy is different. And yes, I really want to like it and see it perform. But here’s the thing. When you’re staking 11 points on games, even in smaller multiples, that is a lot to come back from. Sure, so far this year, there hasn’t been a week where one of those 11 point bets has encountered a full loss, but even the smaller ones add up.

To really frame this, let’s go back to the last win that Home Form had. It was in July and it saw an 8.36 point profit. A decent result for 4 points staked. However, PuntHub’s proofing then shows a loss of 1 point. Then 0.58 points, 1.33 points, 1.59 points, 1 point, 2.3 points. None of those are big losses individually, but they add up. This means that at the end of that run, you’re just 0.56 points up.

To me, I’m not certain how sustainable Home Form will be in the long term. And that is a real deal breaker because the only option here is to pay £99 and sign up for the long term. There just isn’t anywhere near enough value here. And more than anything else, that is the reason I wouldn’t recommend it.

I know it seems like a stupid distinction, but if PuntHub were asking £11, I could see how this might be recommended as a bit of fun. Get a few half decent bets on, you don’t lose too much week to week, and when you win, you can potentially do alright. Because there are some big wins. We’re talking about that 8.36 points, 18.01 points and a 7.36 point winner. They’re fun to see land.

But asking such a large outlay for a service that is probably best viewed as a novelty just isn’t a sound investment. And if you want to profit from betting, that is how you have to view everything.

 

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From: Simon Roberts