Jumpers to Flat Review – Premium Sports Tipsters

Jumpers to Flat is a new to market horse racing tipster service which is being offered through Premium Sports Tipsters. Selections come courtesy of Gary Livermore.

Introduction to Jumpers to Flat

When I first got introduced to Gary Livermore, it did lead to a somewhat obvious, but also quite understated realisation for me. I tend to lump horse racing together into this singular entity. And for most tipsters, that is more than adequate as they don’t really differentiate between disciplines. But that doesn’t alter the fact that there are different disciplines. There is National Hunt racing and there is flat racing, and even the offshoot of this, all weather racing which comes with its own specialisation in my opinion.

Whilst I have previously seen Gary Livermore tipping for National Hunt races (in the guise of a service simply named “Jumpers”), he has clearly been working with Premium Sports Tipsters to develop a flat based service as well (although you aren’t exclusively betting on flat racing). Which is where Jumpers to Flat comes in. As the name suggests really. And it is a very interesting affair indeed. I don’t want to dwell too much on that previous service, because this is a new review. But there were some very clear criticisms that I felt needed to be taken away from Jumpers.

Of course, the purpose of this review isn’t simply to compare Jumpers to Flat and Jumpers (although I do expect there will be overlap). As such, I will be keeping a very clear focus on what we can potentially expect from this over the coming months. If I’m really honest, this is potentially quite exciting. Gary Livermore’s historic results have been strong, and Premium Sports Tipsters’ proofing suggests that things will continue in a similar vein. So, let’s get into it and see if this newest offering is something worth following.

What Does Jumpers to Flat Offer?

It is very interesting to see the pivot to flat racing from Gary Livermore. When I first wrote of his earlier service, I talked about the fact that National Hunt racing really is a different beast. And I stand by that. Which makes it all the more interesting to me to see how he translates his knowledge of one discipline over to the other. Especially with there being explicit mention of a “powerful flat strategy”.

The first place that I want to start is by looking at the management of the service and the logistics of Jumpers to Flat. Because, if I’m really honest, this is everything that you would expect from a service managed by Premium Sports Tipsters. Now, I know that sounds like a criticism, but I can with certainty that it categorically isn’t.

The fact of the matter is that they have been around for some time and they know their way around a tipster service. The approach is always professional and, to their full credit, they give you everything that you need to get bets placed. As you would expect from… Well, any modern tipster service, selections for Jumpers to Flat are issued directly via email. All that you have to do is place the bets as advised.

Which does lead to one of the first things that crosses over from Jumpers quite a bit, albeit, in the opposite direction. You see, with Gary Livermore’s previous service there was a huge disparity between results to BOG and results to the start price. As such, it was important to use a BOG bookmaker and an odds comparison site to try and secure the best possible odds. With Jumpers to Flat though prices can drift. This means SP is often higher than early odds. So, it is arguably more important to use a bookie that offers best odds guaranteed, rather than just the best odds.

On the subject of the odds, there is a healthy range available. I feel like overall odds are generally lower with Jumpers to Flat compared to Jumper, however they are more consistently high. Whilst it is still pretty early doors for this latest service from Gary Livermore, the range just isn’t that significant with only a few bets ending up in double figure odds. Not that this has to be a bad thing.

In terms of the bets, you will see a healthy mix of straight win bet sand each way bets. As you might expect, those each way bets do tend to skew a little more towards the longer shots, but honestly that is a welcome thing. It is just a sensible betting policy to me. And it has paid of for Gary Livermore with selections placing and producing a very reasonable profit.

Now, I have to move onto an area that is a little more contentious. You see, Jumpers to Flat is a moderately high volume service. It seems like you can expect to see 2 or 3 bets on most days. In and of itself, that is very manageable and not really an area that I would call open for criticism.

What I will say though is that once you factor in the staking plan for Jumpers to Flat, this starts to add up pretty quickly. Every bet of the flat season so far has been 2 points. Whether that is a win or an each way bet. Historically, Gary Livermore has staked as much as 4 points on a bet. Does that mean it will happen here? Not at all. But it would be remiss of me to discount the possibility. What this means is that all of this can add up over the course of a week. To 34 points staked in the last week, at the time of writing.

In theory, this still shouldn’t be too much of a problem. The strike rate when I looked at Jumpers was 32.71%. At the time of writing, Gary Livermore is at 30.17%. That is a small drop, admittedly, but it isn’t catastrophic. It is also something that seems to be fuelled mostly by a bit of a bad run in April.

How Does Jumpers to Flat Work?

Much of the focus in terms of how Jumpers to Flat “works” is based around Gary Livermore and his reputation in the wider betting community. There is also a lot of leaning on the fact that he is constantly trying to improve his knowledge of betting. Something that is really commendable in an industry where there is sometimes a lack of evolution. And there is a lot of impressive talk about all of this stuff.

For example, Gary Livermore talks about a lifelong fascination with horse racing. How even from an early age he “developed a very keen interest in getting to REALLY know the horses, jockeys, trainers and owners etc.”. And that as he has got older and his knowledge and interest has grown, he has developed his ability to bet on these horses.

Something that is very insightful with Jumpers to Flat is a small, but quite important, statement. Gary Livermore says that “It soon became crystal clear that I had a good eye for selecting winners and a good memory for form and past/present performance”. This gives us a window into what sort of approach is happening here. A massive improvement over Jumpers where we weren’t really given a lot. Now, this isn’t the most complete statement, but you can at least get some idea of what the service is about.

And honestly, when you combine this with the fact that you have over a year of proofing for Jumpers to Flat (and Jumpers) from Premium Sports Tipsters, you really do get a good idea of what you can expect. The fact is that this does a very good job of showing the “ebb and flow” of Gary Livermore’s bets. And from this, I strongly believe you can get a good idea of whether or not this is something that will work for you.

What is the Initial Investment?

Premium Sports Tipsters and Gary Livermore offer a number of different subscriptions if you are considering signing up to Jumpers to Flat. Each of these come with their own costs, and resultantly, the value for money on offer. The cheapest option in terms of the initial outlay is a monthly subscription which is priced at £36.

There is slightly better value in signing up quarterly subscription at a cost of £77. This brings the monthly cost down to about £25.60. By far and away the least expensive option is signing up for the full season. Now, this does involve the highest outlay with a cost of £89, but that is just £12 more than the quarterly price. It also allows you to get selections until the 31st of September.

It is worth noting that Premium Sports Tipsters don’t really offer any sort of money back guarantee on their products and services which of course, includes Jumpers to Flat. This means that whilst you do get much better value signing up for those longer subscription lengths, you should see it as a commitment if you want to get the most out of the service.

What is the Rate of Return?

Since October 2019, Gary Livermore’s tips have produced a profit of 304.28 points of profit to BOG and an ROI of 25.9%. This is an attractive number given the timescale, however, there are a few points to consider. First and foremost, there is the fact that this is effectively based off staking 2 points per bet. As such, you could reasonably half this number and still have an accurate picture of things.

Unfortunately, if you are betting to SP these numbers drop off very substantially to just 61.34 points of profit and an ROI of 5.22%. Now, this is a phenomenon that was also apparent when I first looked at Jumpers, and honestly, I don’t expect this to change overnight. But I do think that this imbalance will be overturned at least slightly over the coming flat season (for the reasons I mentioned earlier).

You should keep in mind however that using BOG should still be a focus here if you really want to get the most out of Jumpers to Flat. The fact is that just because odds drift and the SP can be higher, that doesn’t mean that it will happen consistently enough to rely on it.  

Conclusion for Jumpers to Flat

It is always a good sign to me when a tipster shows a willingness to evolve and change up what they are doing. You see, one of the biggest focuses if you want to take betting seriously is always on the concept of “long term”. In and of itself, that is all well and good, but there is a lot to be said for simply following a tipster service blindly because of that pursuit of “long term” profit.

Here’s the thing, I have seen a good number of people lose money because a tipster hasn’t been willing (or able) to change up what they are doing in order to secure that long term profit. They keep promising they will make good, all whilst losing money. And eventually… Well, punters lose their betting banks. It isn’t a nice thing to see.

The fact that Gary Livermore is willing to change his approach outside of the season is a very strong positive for Jumpers to Flat. I also believe that he has some idea of what he is doing. Sometimes you just have to go with gut feeling, but the fact that Premium Sports Tipsters are willing to continue on in this vein does say quite a lot to me.

Building on the positives, there are also the historic results for both this and Jumpers. They really aren’t bad with 302 points being about what I would expect of a service like Jumpers to Flat, arguably at a lower cost (especially on those longer subscriptions). At the very least, you can say it is a respectable result.

But even then. Is it really?  Let’s take a long hard look at the profit that you are actually potentially pulling in. Because if you factor in the 2 point stakes, you’re looking at about 150 points in more than a year. That doesn’t look quite so good. Then there is the argument that I made with Jumpers. If you aren’t in a position to pursue the best odds you lose out on a lot of money. Almost 250 points to be specific.

Now, trying to put a positive spin on this, I do think that flat racing might help to balance this out a little bit. But I will admit that this is a little bit speculative on my behalf. And if it does happen, it will take a long time. And in a round about way, I think this allows me to segue nicely into Jumpers to Flat and my final thoughts.

Basically, it boils down to this. Jumpers to Flat needs time. It is quite apparent that Gary Livermore can deliver a profit. Premium Sports Tipsters’ proofing has demonstrated this fact. I will also acknowledge that in theory, this shouldn’t be the case. After all, there is proofing going back to 2019, so… That is quite a while for a tipster to find their feet. And that is a valid argument. That should be plenty of time, but given the niche focus on National Hunt racing before, I think an adjustment period is fair.

Here’s my counterpoint though. It doesn’t cost you anything to wait. Would I recommend Jumpers to Flat right here and now. No, I don’t think I would. There are a lot of things that I believe need ironing out (including a bit more insight into Gary Livermore’s selection process). But I can see the beginnings of a decent product here. And as such, I am going to say that this is probably something that is worth keeping half an eye on still.  

 

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From: Simon Roberts