Lay Bet Winners is a lay betting tipster service which is centred on horse racing. It claims to provide top tips and a decent second income.
What does the product offer?
I make very little effort to hide the fact that the marketing aspect of the services I look at is almost as fun to me as the content. In the case of Lay Bet Winners, what immediately stands out is a referring to lay betting as “a secret way to win big that professional punters have known about for years”.
There are a fair number of problems that I have with this statement, but rather than dissecting them now, I will leave this as something of an aperitif and get down to business.
So, what exactly do you get with Lay Bet Winners? Honestly, the answer is very much in line with what you would expect. Selections are issued to subscribers on a daily basis with tips sent out via email.
What is Lay Bet Winners?
The level of detail that is included with the tips is more than acceptable, especially as the nature of a lay betting service means that you don’t have a lot of option when it comes to betting. This of course means that if you want to follow Lay Bet Winners, you will realistically need an account with a betting exchange.
As always, Betfair is the recommended port of call due to the liquidity, however I should point out that there are alternatives which charge less commission.
The bets themselves are an eclectic mix when it comes to the odds. I find that this is a pretty direct contrast with the reference that is made to betting “on the favourite to lose the race”. What this means in terms of the broader picture is the potential for things to go very wrong when a bet loses.
Otherwise, Lay Bet Winners is a lay betting system, there isn’t a whole lot of scope for things to differ from one to another.
Lay Bet Winners follows a staking plan that is very much in line with what I would expect from any lay betting service and involves staking just 1 point per race. Obviously this doesn’t provide the greatest of returns (hence my problem with the headline mentioned earlier), but the nature of lay betting means that there is a careful balance in terms of risk and reward that must be respected.
The final thing to address is the strike rate. This is key to the success of any lay betting system really and I will generally expect a high strike rate. In the case of Lay Bet Winners, this stands at just over 90% for 2018. Historically, the results have been much closer to 75-80% however, which is quite concerning for the longer term profitability of Lay Bet Winners.
How does Lay Bet Winners work?
In terms of how Lay Bet Winners actually works, there is no real information provided. This is massively disappointing to me, especially given the longer term results. Really, about the closest that you get to an explanation of how the service works is that it is easier to pick losing horses than it is to pick winning horses.
This is highly questionable logic as anybody who has been involved with lay betting will tell you. The fact of the matter is that if you are going to lose a lay bet, it is going to cost you a healthy chunk of your profits.
What is the initial investment?
There are two options available if you want to subscriber to Lay Bet Winners. The first of these is a monthly subscription which is priced at £12. The second option is to pay a one off fee which will buy you access for the full year. This is priced at £67 and undoubtedly represents better value.
Whichever option you choose to sign up for, there is a full 60 day money back guarantee in place. This is backed up by Clickbank who handle the transaction.
What is the rate of return?
So far for 2018, Lay Bet Winners is looking at a profit of 56.07 points to BSP which on paper, I am inclined to say sounds pretty reasonable. Unfortunately, this is only part of the picture and this point is something that needs to be addressed.
Within 3 weeks of the start of the year, Lay Bet Winners was 28 points in the red, and whilst the profits have slowly built up there have been a few pretty substantial hiccups in my opinion including an 18 point loss over 4 days.
Conclusion on Lay Bet Winners?
As a concept there is nothing objectionable about lay betting. I won’t make claims of huge profits and the like because that isn’t what this method of betting is about. Instead, it is all about consistent growth and that brings me on to my biggest concerns with Lay Bet Winners. Put bluntly, I am not certain how sustainable the service is. This is not an unfounded concern in my opinion either as I will explore.
First things first, I want to address the declines that a betting bank would have incurred with Lay Bet Winners. They are there, and there is no getting round this fact. Furthermore, I believe that looking at the longer term results, I think it is fair to say that they are not entirely uncommon either.
A look at the results for 2017 paints a much more extreme picture hitting lows of 73 points to BSP, ultimately ending the year at a loss of 50 points. This ties in with the historic strike rate as well.
Now there is a silver lining of sorts in so much as Lay Bet Winners has not been anywhere near as profitable as it currently is in its run, but I will take 2 years of statistics over 4 months, especially when there is nothing to explain the difference.
For me, the big problem with Lay Bet Winners seems to be that the tipster behind the service seems to fall into a lot of common pitfalls that lay bettors can find themselves in. This includes things like laying outsiders (which of course mean bigger odds) and quite a high volume of bets as well.
For those who don’t know, when you lose a lay bet you have to pay out based off your initial stake and the odds you layed a bet at.
This means that when Lay Bet Winners recommends laying a horse that has a BSP of 7.2, there is a loss of 6.2 points. Given that the profit on a successful lay bet is 0.95, this means 7 bets winning before you are back in profit. Combine these kinds of numbers with a strike rate of even 80% and you can see how easy it is to fail.
With all of this in mind, I don’t see Lay Bet Winners as being a tipster service that I would personally recommend. Lay betting is not inherently bad and there can be success in it, but given the historic results and the lack of information about Lay Bet Winners, I don’t see this as a way to enjoy that success.