Lay Builder Review

Lay Builder is a new to market horse racing tipster service that is operated by a tipster referred to simply as “Phil”. The service takes advantage of lay bets and a very specific approach to supposedly produce a consistent profit.

Introduction to Lay Builder

When it comes to looking at the huge number of betting services available, it can be a struggle to know what to look at. I mean, when you’re getting more than a 100 emails per day some days, how do you know where to focus your attention? Personally, I have some ultimately quite nuanced approaches based around what I see a lot of, names and companies that I recognise, and also things that I know have real potential to work. For example… lay betting.

Of course, this leads me straight into Lay Builder. A horse racing tipster service that aims to provide simple lay betting opportunities. However, Phil does one or two things her that are very different to the norm. They are genuinely quite impressive looking, and if they work… well, they have the potential to at least somewhat the kinds of problems that can come with lay betting. Mostly, I am talking about that massive level of risk that comes with laying against higher liability odds.

This is ultimately achieved through a staking plan that… well, it isn’t exactly unique. Does it mean that it is bad? Not at all. In fact, a look at the sales material for Lay Builder presents as something that has been very well thought out. Were I a less cynical man, this might be cause for celebration. But here’s the thing, whilst the approach Phil is taking here is something that may well work well for him, I can’t help but wonder how it will perform for you. Something that generally doesn’t bode well for a tipster service. Let’s look at why.

What Does Lay Builder Offer?

In order to truly understand where the concerns that I have around Lay Builder lie, I need to start by painting a picture of this service as Phil suggests it should be. Once that has been done, I want to talk a little bit about some very obvious questions that exist (at least in my mind) around this seemingly simple process.

First things first, let’s talk logistics. The approach that Phil takes is one of simplicity. You will hear me using this term (and variations of it) a lot during this review. This runs Monday through Saturday and you receive an email with details of two selections. These are sent out relatively early in the morning, typically landing between 9am and 11am.

All that you have to do, we are told, is go and lay them on a betting exchange of your choice. Whether this is Betfair, Ladbrokes, or Smarkets doesn’t matter. Now, in some respects, this makes sense. Ultimately, searching for odds doesn’t matter quite as much with laying as when you are backing horses.  

The important thing here is that this is lay betting. And in order for Lay Builder to work, you need to use a very specific staking plan. You see, the core premise here is a very straight forward one. When you sign up to the service, you are signing up for a “run” in which Phil claims that he will double your betting bank. This can be as large or as small as you want it to be, but it does inform a lot of the rest of the betting.

In order to understand what makes Lay Builder “unique”, we have to talk about liability. Something that is undoubtedly the single biggest scourge of laying. For those who aren’t aware, when you lay a horse on an exchange, if it wins, you pay out at the odds you layed it at minus your original stake. This means that a 11.00 horse layed with £10 would need £110 in your account just to bet. If it lost, you’d then lose out on £100. If the horse lost, you’d get £10 minus commission.

Phil’s approach to laying is that you don’t focus on how much money you want to win from a bet. Instead, you focus on betting in such a way that you will, at most, lose 10% of your betting bank on a given bet. Using the example starting bank of £500, that means that each bet has a maximum liability of £50. All nice and simple. Sure, you don’t’ win as much back, but you also don’t see your bank decimated from a big loss.

Not that you should seemingly expect to lose. Phil provides proofing of his last run and this had a strike rate of some 90%. Even for a lay betting service that is a bloody impressive number, although, I am a little sceptical of this. Whilst it is a strong figure, it is a little out of line with what I’d typically expect from a laying service of this nature.

You see, one of the things that stands out to me about Lay Builder is that for a laying service, you are dealing with lower odds. Typically, that means you will lose more often. Of course, it helps to keep those liabilities nice and low and the stakes (and by proxy, the returns) pretty reasonable, but Phil’s proofing for the service claims that the average odds he layed at were just 4.0. That is a remarkably low number for this kind of thing.

How Does Lay Builder Work?

The main selling point of Lay Builder is the staking plan and how that is set up. Make no mistake about it, Phil’s focus in his marketing is all about how clever you are being by not focusing on your winnings, but how much you can lose. As somebody who in my early days got bit pretty hard by lay betting, I can clearly see the appeal in this philosophy. There is a similar sentiment when he talks about only betting on a few bets rather than overstretching.

Unfortunately, this doesn’t actually answer the real question that exists with Lay Builder. How are horses being selected? You see, I’ve looked at plenty of laying tipsters that are focused on laying at lower odds. If you really know what you are doing, you can do reasonably well off it. But getting those low odds horses that actually have a chance of losing is an art form.

This isn’t something that is ever discussed though. In actual fact, despite being a horse racing tipster service, there is very little said by Phil about horse racing in the sales material for Lay Builder. All of the focus is on the bet type and how his staking approach helps you to minimise your liability. Honestly, that is quite concerning to me. It doesn’t matter how good this may be, if you’re just betting on crap you will ultimately lose money.

Now there might be some mitigation here. Phil does after all provide proofing for a full run, but that is just 26 days of betting. I would expect that this has happened before, and as such, it would be nice to see these previous runs. But that isn’t given. As such, I do remain at least a little sceptical about this element of Lay Builder. Building on this, even if you did give the benefit of the doubt, you’re just dealing with a very small sample size.

What is the Initial Investment?

If you want to sign up to Lay Builder there are two different options available, both of which are based off the “runs” I mentioned earlier. The first option that Phil has is a single run. This isn’t exactly cheap in my mind and will set you back £40 plus VAT. Seemingly offering much better value is a 5 run package. This is priced at £97 plus VAT, effectively halving the price.

Something that Phil fails to mention however is that whichever option you sign up for, there is a full 30 day money back guarantee in place. This is backed up by the fact that Lay Builder is being sold through Clickbank who are generally very good with this sort of thing. The failure to mention any of this is a little concerning to me.

What is the Rate of Return?

In terms of the profit potential, well, I’ve already mentioned that. Lay Builder will run until you have doubled your betting bank. This means that if you start with £100, you make £100. If you start with £500, you make £500. Or rather, if Phil starts with £500, when he has made £500 (a point I want to pick up very shortly as it is incredibly interesting).

How long it will take for a betting bank to double will clearly vary. There are too many factors to put a precise time frame on it. But I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that there is an implication in the sales material that this can be achieved within a month. That is, after all, how long the last run took and we aren’t told that there was anything exceptional about it.

Conclusion for Lay Builder

I’ll admit to the fact that when I first looked at Lay Builder, I was actually quite excited. Not something that I tend to find with this kind of tipster service. The reasoning for this is whilst I don’t believe that Phil has necessarily “fixed” the problems with lay betting, it is good to see a service that is seemingly built from the ground up to help mitigate them. Sure, things might move slower, but anybody who understands betting knows it’s all about the long term.

But there are a few incredibly pertinent issues that warrant some discussion here. First and foremost, I cannot stress enough the point that Phil doesn’t actually display any knowledge of or insight into the world of horse racing. This is quite problematic because… well, at the end of the day, he’s telling you which horses you should be betting on.

On top of that, you are looking at a very specific type of horse here. It might seem like a relatively simple thing. Picking a horse to lose is much easier than picking a horse to win. Right? In theory, maybe. But the reality is that it is actually more difficult. Even more than this, Lay Builder isn’t just about picking a loser, but picking one at the right odds. All done by a guy who doesn’t seem to talk about horse racing, despite tipping it.

Moving on from that, let’s talk about one of the biggest issues that I have with Lay Builder. You see, prices on an exchange can move quite quickly. Phil says that he’s aiming to get around that by restricting the number of people who can purchase a run. This seems questionable though. The fact is that market odds can alter drastically. Which ultimately begs one of my biggest questions.

What is the exact measure of Lay Builder “doubling” the profits? The only tangible measure I can see that Phil can use are his results. So, what if you’re unable to get those same results? Inevitably, it impacts your profit. This isn’t something that is outside of the realms of possibility. The problem that I have is that there is no mention of any contingency for this. In my mind, this only compounds the lack of genuine insight and information.

When you bring all of this together, it is all… well… It’s a touch iffy. The fact of the matter is that all of that is pretty basic stuff. I don’t really understand how, in the process of developing Lay Builder, Phil hasn’t considered these things. Except… I believe that he possibly has. It doesn’t strike me as a coincidence that all of this is paired with that with a price structure that very conveniently is at odds with any refund period.

Of course, I could be wrong. I could be overthinking everything. And I might feel that way if it were simply one or two of these issues. But all of this bring brought together is just… well, a bit off. The fact of the matter is this. However you want to dress it up, Phil is missing some really quite basic information, and that is quite genuine cause for concern.

Combine all of that with a price that isn’t even cheap. It’s not really expensive.  There are plenty of decent, genuine, and proven tipsters who are asking less than Phil. Which begs the question of why you’d want to pay this kind of money for something that is absolutely riddled with flaws. I know that in my mind, it isn’t something I could justify. And as such, I would say that this isn’t necessarily something I would look to recommend.

 

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From: Simon Roberts