Long Odds Larry is a brand new horse racing tipster service which is operated by the eponymous Larry Jefferies. The service claims to have produced very substantial profits in a short period of time.
Introduction to Long Odds Larry
I find it interesting just how many tipsters out there seem to have names that fit really neatly into the name of a tipster service. Things like, Dave’s Daily Double or Bob’s Best Bets. Or todays subject, Long Odds Larry. I find it perhaps more interesting that these services rarely seem to perform the way that they claim to.
Which of course makes it hard to not talk about the claims that Larry Jefferies makes for his service. Whilst I might be cynical (and quite rightly, if I’m honest), there is no getting around the fact that when a tipster service claims to have made a little shy of two grand in less than a week, that is something that is worth following up.
And this is exactly the claim that Larry Jefferies has made for his service. It is an interesting one and make no mistake. I would also love nothing more than see this promise be delivered on Long Odds Larry make that kind of money for subscribers. But ultimately, I can’t help but feel like there is a lot that is somewhat questionable about this service.
What Does Long Odds Larry Offer?
What Larry Jefferies is offering through Long Odds Larry is pretty much right there in the title. He is operating a tipster service which is based around the concept of backing horses that have long odds. This is something that I’ve seen succeed elsewhere, so in theory, there is no reason why Long Odds Larry shouldn’t prove profitable either. Right?
Well, first of all, I want to start by talking about those long odds. Because ultimately, that is what Long Odds Larry is based around. It is also the area that I think it is most difficult to ignore. Larry Jefferies shows “evidence” that he has backed winning horses at a bloody wide range of odds.
These start as “low” as 12/1 going all the way up to 50/1. Those are some very big numbers and exactly the kind of thing that every punter wishes they could pull in on a regular basis. And if you believe what Larry Jefferies says, you will be able to do just this (but I’ll come back to this a little later).
When it comes to backing these kinds of odds, it rarely makes sense to back them to win. Even in a fantasy world, Larry Jefferies cannot realistically expect you to think that he is backing horses at double digits to win, and have those bets come in on a frequent basis. As such, Long Odds Larry is exclusively concerned with backing horses on an each way basis.
On the subject of the odds, it is also important to keep in mind the logistical side of Long Odds Larry. Now, a lot of it is exactly what you would expect. Selections are sent directly to subscribers via email, however, this isn’t a daily affair. Instead, Larry Jefferies issues tips Monday through Saturday.
Of significantly more noteworthiness is the fact that these are sent out the evening before racing (typically before 11pm). This of course allows you to get the best possible odds. Larry Jefferies’s evidence shows that he uses Betfair, however is keen to point out that you can bet with whichever bookies you choose.
Personally, I can’t help but feel like Oddschecker is made for this kind of service. When you are betting on long odds, it is very important to make sure that you are squeezing every possible point of profit out of the service. The fact of the matter is that you don’t win often, it is important to maintain your betting bank to the highest possible levels.
In terms of the volume of bets, I would say that everything is somewhat manageable. Larry Jefferies will typically advise as many as 5 bets on a given day. I have certainly seen services that involve backing more bets than Long Odds Larry, but nor is this what I would call a selective service. That is a point that becomes particularly poignant when you consider the staking plan.
Now, this doesn’t necessarily mean that you are dealing with a particularly complex staking plan. In fact, Larry Jefferies appears to simply recommend betting 1 point each way on bets. This is based off his claim that you can attain his headlining results using just £10 stakes. His betting slips show £20 stakes on each bet. It’s all pretty straight forward.
However, backing 30 bets per week at 2 points per bet can very quickly eat into a betting bank. Especially if you aren’t winning often. Now in theory, this should be the case. Anybody will tell you that if you are going to follow a service that backs horses at odds that have a minimum of 10/1, you won’t win often. However, Long Odds Larry suggests otherwise.
In fact, the small amount of “evidence” that is provided to back up the claimed income shows a strike rate of almost 50%. This is based off a claimed 14 bets winning out of 30. Personally, I find this number to be incredibly unbelievable. And even in the best case scenario that it is genuine, it is clearly not reflective of a typical experience.
How Does Long Odds Larry Work?
When Larry Jefferies talks about how his service works, there is very little in the way of tangible information. Instead, the sales material seems to be based around two key approaches. Neither of these are factual (in my opinion), and nor do they provide any real insight into the selection process for Long Odds Larry. Instead, they seem to serve to make a service that sounds good, without actually demonstrating anything.
First of all, we receive the usual vitriol towards all other tipster services. Specifically, Larry Jefferies says explicitly that he “tried every single tipster going and all there[sic] tips LOST ME MONEY! Their advice was utter CRAP!”. He then goes on to say that if he was going to make money, he would have to figure it out himself.
From here, he outlines his approach to betting which is broken down into two points. Generating “REGULAR returns from LONG ODD selections!” and betting on “quality selections with a very good chance of winning”. You don’t have to be particularly astute to note that this doesn’t actually tell us anything.
It isn’t even like there is any proofing provided for Long Odds Larry that we can look at to get an idea of what to expect. The only evidence provided is dubious at best, and even if it were genuine, it is of such a small sample size that it isn’t really all that helpful. All of this is of course incredibly disappointing.
What is the Initial Investment?
Where it seems that Larry Jefferies is hoping to generate appeal for Long Odds Larry is the costs involved. If you want to sign up to Long Odds Larry, it is available for just £15 for your first month (plus VAT) which is a remarkably low price. It is also supposedly a reduction on the “real” value of £30 (which would again, be plus VAT). It is interesting to note however that this is not a recurring cost.
It is also noteworthy that Long Odds Larry comes with a full 60 day money back guarantee. This is backed by the fact that Larry Jefferies is selling access to the service via Clickbank. In one of the few bits of credit that I can offer to this service, this fact is at least well advertised in the sales material.
What is the Rate of Return?
I have sort of skirted a little bit around the income for Long Odds Larry, but there is little ignoring it at this point. The headlining figure is £1,843.50 in just 6 days. That represents some very strong potential if Larry Jefferies is able to make that much money in a week, right?
His claimed income for 2019 so far is £26,347 which would come in a little less than that main weekly figure suggests. It is however still a pretty significant amount of money. However, I have some doubts surrounding these numbers.
Given that all of these figures are supposedly based off £10 per point stakes, this would mean that in a single week, Larry Jefferies made 184.3 points. For context, I know of reputable and well thought of tipster services that make less than that per year. This figure also puts the annual figure at 2,634.7 points. A figure that a lot of tipsters would be happy to take home over a full decade.
Conclusion for Long Odds Larry
Let’s be blunt here. I can see the surface appeal of Long Odds Larry. You don’t have to be particularly in tune with the world of betting to see that almost £2,000 for just a £15 investment is good. And if I believed that those results were at all genuine, this whole review would go very differently. But I don’t.
There are a lot of reasons for this, some of which are incredibly obvious (at least, they are in my opinion). Others are much less… Apparent. But al of the issues that exist are significant enough that they would definitely temper any expectations I may have had of retiring to simply follow Larry Jefferies’s betting advice.
Now, it is very easy in my position to simply leave it there, but I have the privilege of a considerable amount of experience looking for these kinds of red flags. So, what actually stands out? Well, first of all, there are those income claims. I don’t dispute that you can make £26,000 per year through betting. Doing that with £10 stakes however isn’t something that I have never seen, nor do I think that I will ever see.
As well as this, there is the lack of information on how the service works. I’ve said so many times that I don’t expect a tipster to simply breakdown their selection process step by step. I don’t want to know the intricate details of their approach to betting. But I do expect more than Larry Jefferies offers which is effectively nothing.
In fact, if anything, the constant emphasis on how all of the other tipster services are so bad, whilst refusing to demonstrate his own worth, only drives home how concerning this is. With all of this in mind, the negatives are really starting to stack up against Larry Jefferies and Long Odds Larry.
But for me, the nail in the coffin doesn’t come from anything that is apparent from the sales material (although there is ore than enough there that would lead me to not recommend Long Odds Larry), and that is the vendor who is selling the service through Clickbank.
They are not foreign to me, and that isn’t for positive reasons. Unfortunately, their services have generally quietly been closed after around 3 months or so. Coincidentally not long after the 60 day money back guarantee expires. And there is nothing that leads me to believe that Long Odds Larry will be any different in the future.
With all of this in mind, I wouldn’t recommend Long Odds Larry. Whilst I can appreciate that it is cheap, I don’t believe that you will actually make any money. And that is ultimately the bottom line here. There are a lot of reasons for this, but not least of them is because I don’t believe that they are particularly genuine.