Long Shot Sniper Review

Long Shot Sniper is a brand new horse racing tipster service which is operated by Charlie Kemp. It claims to have generated massive profits through betting on value horses.

Introduction to Long Shot Sniper

The headline for Long Shot Sniper talks about 25/1 winners which is definitely appealing. What really caught my eye however was the claimed income. Charlie Kemp says that last year he made £145,987 placing just a few bets every day. This is a massive figure, some would say (and probably quite reasonably) conspicuously so.

Reading through the sales material for Long Shot Sniper only heightens this with a number of very bold statements and claims made about the service. Of course when a tipster talks about effectively making £146,000 per year, even if you only make an eighth of this you would be doing well. Of course the problem with marketing is that anybody can say or twist anything in order to make a service sound like the next great thing.

Given that Charlie Kemp is quite cavalier with his claims, it probably won’t come as a surprise to learn that there is a lot to cover. With this in mind, let’s take a look at Long Shot Sniper.

What Does Long Shot Sniper Offer?

One of the best ways to start to get a handle on a service is to cut through the bluster and the marketing and look at what you are actually getting yourself into. In the case of Long Shot Sniper, it is essentially a daily horse racing tipster service. Selections are set out directly to subscribers via email (as you would expect), usually around 8am or 11am depending on where in the sales material you are looking at.

One of the things that immediately stands out is that Charlie Kemp offers a fair amount of information on bookies and odds. This is important because it is ultimately a critical part of Long Shot Sniper’s makeup.

In terms of the bets, all bets are advised appear to be win bets and as you would probably expect there is a decent range on odds. This starts at 5/1 going all the way up to 25/1 however shopping around is definitely prudent, even with the information that Charlie Kemp provides. There is one selection on a daily basis “subject to the racing calendar and meetings meeting our placement criteria”. I will get to this criteria a little later.

The kind of numbers claimed to be earned through Long Shot Sniper are likely to be hit following a level staking plan (short of £1,000 stakes) and as such, it will probably come as no surprise to learn that there is a compounding plan in place. Charlie Kemp says that you should aim to start out with a betting bank of 100 points.

You should then look to stake 2% of this on each bet. There is also reference throughout the sales material to using level stakes however I am inclined to disregard this.

Finally, I want to talk about the strike rate. Now there aren’t any claims made (which is disappointing) and there is also no proofing for Long Shot Sniper. There is however a quite incredible claim made by Charlie Kemp in the sales material where he says that you should aim for a strike rate of between 5% and 10%. Supposedly, the longer odds will allow this to still generate a substantial profit.

How Does Long Shot Sniper Work?

Charlie Kemp says that he has spent hours “going through data from the past 10 years” in order to develop a system “based on avoiding favourites”. There is nothing inherently wrong with this strategy and I have seen it used to great affect. Slightly less convincing however is the fact that Long Shot Sniper “actively targets runners with odds of between 7/1 and 33/1 (a contradiction to earlier comments in which Charlie Kemp says that he does not pursue horses over 25/1 as they don’t tend to win).

There are a number of different criteria that Charlie Kemp applies saying that they don’t bet on junior and amateur races due to instability. They don’t back a horse which has fallen in its last 8 races, or came 5^th or lower in the previous race at the same course. There is also talk that you should apply a long term approach to Long Shot Sniper.

Charlie Kemp acknowledges that there will be losing streaks with “value of winners between 10/1 and 33/1” (note that the odds have changed yet again).

All of this sounds impressive but ultimately tells us very little.

What is the Initial Investment?

At a glance, Long Shot Sniper looks like exceptional value. When you sign up, there is just a one time cost of £37 (plus VAT) for 12 months of access. This is, as Charlie Kemp helpfully points out multiple times, only 10 pence per day. This doesn’t even buy you a Freddo any more. On top of this, it also comes with a full 60 day money back guarantee as Long Shot Sniper is sold through Clickbank.

What is the Rate of Return?

Obviously the main selling point here is the income potential. As near as makes a difference, you are talking about making £150,000 per year through Long Shot Sniper, all tax free of course.

Charlie Kemp translates this to £12,000 per month. A testimonial for the service claims to have made £450 on their first day. The problem however is that there is no real talk of how much Charlie Kemp is betting to attain these numbers. I can appreciate that a compounded staking plan might increase the profit potential but short of starting stakes of £500 plus, I don’t see how the figures claimed are feasible.

Conclusion on Long Shot Sniper?

There is a lot said through Long Shot Sniper and a lot of it seems to be contradictory. I am of course not just talking about the claims made on odds (although these do highlight what I’m talking about), but there are a lot of minor discrepancies that don’t ever seem to add up. For example, there is supposedly just 1 bet per day. This means 365 bets a year which would in turn mean each bet making £400. Factor in a strike rate of between 5% and 10% and it just doesn’t start to add up mathematically.

It is not even like Charlie Kemp presents us with a rock solid case as to why his selections work. There is plenty of talk, however most of it seems to be either bluff or rather vague. An example of this is the talk of not backing horses who have fallen. On average, 7% of horses fall in fences races. In hurdles it just 3%. There are much more subtleties to the numbers that I won’t go into, but generally speaking, to say that a horse has fallen once so should be written off also doesn’t really fit with the maths.

All of this is concerning enough in and of itself however there are other elements to consider. The numbers clamed for Long Shot Sniper sent me away digging and I was not really surprised to find that it is ultimately offered through quite a prodigious internet marketer. This year has seen an eyewatering number of services from them, almost none of which exist anymore.

This suggests that Long Shot Sniper will go the same way and even explains the approach to me. Promising a 5% strike rate means that you can be wrong an awful lot before people try to claim a refund. Possibly longer than Clickbank’s money back guarantee period?

Put bluntly, I don’t see anything about Long Shot Sniper that I would recommend.

It is cheap, yes, but it looks a lot like getting what you pay for. The fact is that I can only see this losing money in the long term and I would be very surprised if you get even close to the claimed results.