Lucky 7 Naps is a long standing horse racing tipster service that is being offered through the Betfan stable of tipsters. Selections come courtesy of tipster Michael who has produced some very strong profits.
Introduction to Lucky 7 Naps
Context can be an incredibly important thing. If I told you that I won a grand down the bookies last night, you might think to yourself “there’s a canny bettor”. What about if I’d stuck £10,000 down on a 1/10 favourite in a 3 horse race. Would there be anything canny about that? What about if I said I’d turned a 1,000 point profit on that bet. That sounds even better. But really, I’ve still only made 10% on my bet. There isn’t anything wrong with that. But it is important to ensure that the context is kept.
That idea of context is something that I want you to keep in mind with today’s services. Especially when I talk about the numbers. Because if I’m really honest, Lucky 7 Naps blew me away at first glance. Betfan have on their hands here a service that has, over almost 8 years, produced a consistent profit. A consistent profit that currently sits at more then 10,000 points. Bravo to Michael. That ticks every single box that I have when looking for a tipster service. At least it does on paper.
When you start digging a little deeper… well, things aren’t quite as they seem. The fact is that whilst those results are impressive, there has been a lot of change and evolution with Lucky 7 Naps. The service being sold now isn’t quite the service that it was 8 years ago. Somewhere along the line, Michael changed things up. What is interesting to me, however, is that Betfan don’t really talk about that. So, in something of a rarity for me, I have a bit of a mystery on my hands today. So, let’s get into it all and see what is what.
What Does Lucky 7 Naps Offer?
It’s hard to know where to start with something like Lucky 7 Naps. This is a service that has been around for almost 8 years. What I will probably be focusing on here is the service as it is. Of course, there will also have to be explorations of the past results as well. It is necessary to understand how this ultimately impacts what Betfan are doing here. But it will not be the focus.
The recent offering for Lucky 7 Naps has all been ultimately relatively straightforward. And I will be really upfront and say that I like what Michael is doing with this for a lot of different reasons. Now, before I get into the bets themselves, let’s start by talking about the management of the service.
Betfan have been in this game for as long as I can remember and they are arguably the single most prolific publisher of tipsters that I have looked at (that aren’t a complete con). I think that it’s probably pretty fair to say that they have an understanding of how to manage a tipster service that is close to unparalleled.
Of course, this means that you receive selections from Lucky 7 Naps directly to your email each day they are available. Standard fare for this sort of thing. Alternatively, you can opt to log in to a member’s area and view tips there. For my money, your best bet is to use the Betfan app. This gets tips delivered directly to your phone where they’re harder to miss. It also seems to be the fastest option too.
Now, let’s talk about the bets themselves. The sales material for Lucky 7 Naps makes reference to the fact that this is “Strictly WIN Bets Only…” and that “If you’re in to Lay or Each Way betting then this is not for you. My system is focused on only finding winners”. There is a certain irony in this given that there are at least one or two each way bets in the recent proofing from Betfan. They are however the exception to the rule by a long shot.
This is something that is quite interesting to me. You see, one of the standout features about Lucky 7 Naps is that there are some truly massive odds involved. And this is a very significant range too. For example, if you go back to November, Betfan show that there was a winner at just 3.75. There was also a winner 67.0. There is little in the way of “a norm” in what Michael is doing here.
As is often the case with odds, your milage will ultimately vary, but Lucky 7 Naps is one of those services where I would definitely recommend using an odds comparison site. Whilst you can definitely win big with this, there can also be a lot of losses. And it is important to make sure that you make every win count.
Fortunately, because Michael is now pretty selective, this shouldn’t be a problem. There are often multiple days without bets, and whilst the very occasional day may produce multiple selections, you are generally placing one bet on those days. This low volume approach is much different to how Lucky 7 Naps used to be, and I believe that it is for the better.
It’s now time to come back to my introduction now and that concept of context. You see, all of the proofing for this is to level stakes, just… they’re level stakes of 5 points per bet. Inevitably, this kind staking has some very strong impacts in terms of inflation, affecting both the profit (which I want to come back to soon), and importantly, the drawdown potential.
You see, Lucky 7 Naps loses quite often. This is a simple statement of fact and honestly, exactly what you’d expect from a service that involves betting on longer shots. Whilst Betfan don’t publish a strike rate, I think it is important to note how far south this can go. December saw a single winner at 3.0. This led to the overall month ending 100 points down and an effective strike rate of 4%.
Obviously, this is an extreme, but I think that it’s very important with something like Lucky 7 Naps to be upfront about what you can expect. Something that, rather frustratingly, I don’t necessarily believe that Betfan do quite as well as they could. But I suppose that is the issue when somebody is ultimately marketing and selling a service.
How Does Lucky 7 Naps Work?
It is interesting to me that we aren’t actually told anything about how Lucky 7 Naps actually works. Between them, Michael and Betfan say very little. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t somethings that we can explore either. In fact, one of the few snippets that we are given is ultimately incredibly eye opening. You see, the one thing we are told is that the focus of the service is on races where there are 7 horses or less running.
When you combine that with some of the odds, it starts to become apparent that value plays a big part in the service. Whilst I am speculating a little here, I can see merit in the fact that those races still have an opportunity for big outsiders to win. And if you know what you are looking for (which the results for Lucky 7 Naps show that Michael ultimately does), you can narrow down that window even more.
Would I have liked to have seen more about all of this? Absolutely. It remains frustrating to me that as a punter, you still have to try and take an informed decision about what you’re getting into. Especially because you can explain your approach without giving everything away. And I do think it is doubly important to ensure that people understand your approach with something like Lucky 7 Naps. Because the results are a proper rollercoaster.
Rather unfortunately, it isn’t even like you can turn to Betfan for proofing to understand what you’re getting into. Don’t get me wrong, they provide it. As I’ve mentioned, there are almost 8 years of proofing for Lucky 7 Naps. but it is rather frustratingly in about the least user friendly way possible. Something that I suspect has everything to do with making it more difficult to analyse data on a service.
What is the Initial Investment?
If you are interested in Lucky 7 Naps… well, you have to pay for it. There is no getting around the fact that this is quite a pricey service. It isn’t prohibitive, but the entry level is £45 per month, plus VAT. That means paying out £54 every month. Except, Betfan don’t count a month as a month. They operate on 28 days being a month, which means you pay that out 13 times a year.
There is only slightly better value to be had in the quarterly subscription too. Betfan are asking £126 plus VAT for this, although it is at least billed close to quarterly, running on a 90 day subscription. The best value offering comes from a 6 monthly subscription. At £214 plus VAR, this is still not an inexpensive offering.
Especially when you factor in that Betfan don’t typically offer any sort of money back guarantee on their products, and Lucky 7 Naps is no different. What they do say however is that they “will review every refund request and if we feel a refund is warranted it shall be granted.”. This just isn’t something you should rely on though.
What is the Rate of Return?
I mentioned at the start that Lucky 7 Naps has made over 10,000 points of profit in 8 years. Specifically, we’re looking at 10,423.79 points. Those are huge numbers. But like I said, context is incredibly important in all of this, because those numbers have been inflated. Irrespective of how you want to judge my approach, Betfan proofing to 5 points on every bet means that your profit will be 5 times larger.
This means that if we’re really realistic and scale down to 1 point stakes, Lucky 7 Naps has made 2,084.76 points in that time. That is still a respectable number. Some 260 points per year is a fine average for a service to produce over that timescale. Especially because Michael has mostly been consistent with few significant losing periods.
Conclusion for Lucky 7 Naps
My biggest problems with Lucky 7 Naps aren’t with the service. I think that this is ultimately one of the better tipster services on the market, if you can live with it. And that is where a lot of the criticism is going to come from here. Because I always look at a betting system from a certain perspective, namely, that you’re looking to make a second income. Which typically means some consideration for your finances.
You see, if you have an unlimited budget, Lucky 7 Naps is absolutely bloody brilliant. Michael saw 330 points of profit in a single day. That is more than some tipsters make in a year. If you’re staking £10 per point at that rate, that’s a holiday in the Maldives. But the problem with that kind of measurement is when this has been down, and it can be very down, you’re looking at those kinds of losses.
To joe average, that kind of thing simply isn’t possible, and so, we start to scale things back. And as you do that, inevitably, Lucky 7 Naps does lose some of its appeal. What it does mean though is that the 100 point losses are 10 point losses. And 260 points per year is still solid. There’s even room for a decent profit in there, despite the costs involved (just really try and avoid Betfan’s “monthly” option if you can).
What is incredibly frustrating is the fact that Betfan make you do all of this homework to make the realisation that Lucky 7 Naps is still a good looking tipster service. Sure, it isn’t quite the same league as the sales material initially makes it look, but there aren’t many services that would be. But it has made a very respectable profit year on year. Long term, there appears to only be one realistic outcome.
Sure, it doesn’t always come up smelling of roses, but this is betting. Even its most informed state, you’re still ultimately taking a gamble. Lucky 7 Naps isn’t necessarily the best example of mitigating that risk either, but it isn’t ever so out of control that I see it is a deal breaker. You just have to think long term.
So, what’s the bottom line on Lucky 7 Naps? This is a great looking service. Michael has proven himself over nearly a decade, and whilst it isn’t always smooth sailing, there is a clear and strong upward trend. Sure, this won’t suit everybody, but I think that if you have the discipline to see through the losing months, you are have the chance to be something that is really quite impressive here.
