Mercurius Tradr is a piece of sports betting trading software which creators, Fabrizio Machella, Lorezo Malanga, and Mario Ciardulli, claim can allow you to generate a profit through betting on football games. All without having to lift a finger.
Introduction to Mercurius Tradr
For my money, one of the most appealing elements of betting as a method of generating a second income is the potential for it to be very hands off. A good few years back, I used to know a gent who would bet on greyhound racing. He had a VPS set up which automatically traded based on his method to just 10p bets. It ran constantly and he didn’t have to touch it, and as such, whilst his profits weren’t substantive, he did nothing for them.
That kind of passive income is ultimately the dream, and it is also exactly what Mercurius Tradr aims to do. In fact, if you look at Fabrizio Machella, Lorezo Malanga, and Mario Ciardulli, they seem to actually be very well positioned to deliver on this. You see, unlike some trading services that you see, this doesn’t have the look and feel of a dodgy tipster working out of his garage. Whilst they may not be a regulated entity, the fact is that this does all seem to be a very above board operation.
Now all of this sounds very good. In fact, you may well be looking at Mercurius Tradr and questioning why I wouldn’t simply recommend this? Well, the fact is that whilst this really does look like a great looking product, there are a lot of elements to consider. And actually, I can say with confidence that it just won’t suit everybody.
What Does Mercurius Tradr Offer?
So, what exactly do Fabrizio Machella, Lorezo Malanga, and Mario Ciardulli do with Mercurius Tradr? The short answer to this is that you are getting access to a piece of Betfair automatic trading/betting software. However, there are also a lot of very grandiose claims.
For example, they refer to their service as being “sports trading with the power of Artificial Intelligence”. Or as being “the first app for Betfair Exchange able to analyse sports, find the edge and bet for you”.
Both of these statements are taken from the headline for Mercurius Tradr. And whilst I am probably certain there is a way that these claims are demonstrably true, for my money, they are not. You see, I have looked at a lot of betting services that have aimed to do the same fundamental thing as Mercurius Tradr. They’ve just been… A little rougher round the edge. Or hugely questionable in some cases.
The thing with this is that for my money, simply explaining what Mercurius Tradr is in simple terms makes it sound much cooler and more interesting. This is a piece of AI software that constantly scans Betfair markets to identify where there exists value.
Because the fact of the matter is this, the core principles that Mercurius Tradr is built on are relatively straightforward. As I’ve mentioned, you can effectively boil everything down to “value” if you were so inclined, and I don’t think you’d be far wrong. What makes the product effective and impressive in my opinion is the way that it manages to achieve everything.
With that out of the way, I want to talk a little bit about what Mercurius Tradr trades on, because it is very specific. At the time of writing, the AI looks exclusively at 11 football leagues. These are mostly top flight European football, as well as the Chinese Super League and the English Championship.
This restriction appears to be quite important as the AI that is ultimately doing the trading for you is constantly looking at huge swathes of data. As such, it makes perfect sense that in order to process everything there has to be restrictions. Just like with an actual person, without that focus, it is rather difficult to “know” more than the exchange does.
Ultimately, that is a very important element here because the goal, as so often stated by Fabrizio Machella, Lorezo Malanga, and Mario Ciardulli, is for Mercurius Tradr to make long term profits. This is a long way from a “get rich quick” scheme. A fact that will become apparent when I start to look at the income potential. However, I believe that the software can achieve this.
You see, one of the ideas that you hear so often when it comes to bet trading is the notion of it being “an investment” rather than betting. And this is something that, when handled professionally, is very much true. Unfortunately, a lot of products don’t really adhere to this, but Mercurius Tradr is one of the few that genuinely does.
Despite how impressive this may sound, it doesn’t mean that Mercurius Tradr is hard to use. In fact, all that you need is your Tradr account, and a Betfair wallet with a betting bank in it (one of the nice things about all this is that Fabrizio Machella, Lorezo Malanga, and Mario Ciardulli don’t ever get near your funds). From there, the software then trades for you, allowing you to simply check in on performance.
Just as a final bit of housekeeping, there are a few numbers that are worth mentioning (and honestly, at this point I just have to shoehorn them in somewhere). At the time of writing, the software has made 747 bets with a strike rate of 32%. These have won at average odds of 3.31 with a maximum betting bank exposure of 16% per day (based off 1% stakes per bet).
This strike rate is roughly in line with back tested results for Mercurius Tradr, however, the average odds are lower.
How Does Mercurius Tradr Work?
Now we come to how Mercurius Tradr works and refreshingly, Fabrizio Machella, Lorezo Malanga, and Mario Ciardulli provide reams of information that pertains to this. So much so that I will say here and now that if you are actually interested in this and want to know more, their website is strongly recommended. However, I want to provide a simplified overview here.
At the core of everything is the AI that is in place. The software analyses historical data from over 200,000 matches (provided by Wyscout). On these historical matches, the AI analyses “approximately 20,000 data points”, weighing up the strengths of individual players as well as teams.
All of this is then applied through various models to come up with a offensive and defensive rating for each team. After all of this, Mercurius Tradr then simulates a match between the teams 100,000 times to see what the most likely outcomes will be.
Finally, the software uses this to look for “Positive Expected Value (EV)”. This effectively means that the software will use its own calculations of how likely an event is and turn that into odds. If the AI has calculated a team has a 40% chance of winning, the odds should be around 2.50. If they are at 2.70, there is a positive EV and the software will place that bet.
What is the Initial Investment?
One of the best things about Mercurius Tradr is that there is very little in the way of initial investment. In fact, all that you need is money in your Betfair account. However, don’t expect this to be something that you can simply jump into with a few hundred quid. In fact, the suggested bankroll is €10,000 which is pretty hefty. With that said, signing up costs nothing.
You see, Fabrizio Machella, Lorezo Malanga, and Mario Ciardulli make their money by talking a 2% maintenance fee annually, subject to your bankroll increasing by 5%. On top of this, there is a performance fee of 30% of your returns quarterly. Inevitably, these kinds of numbers can start to add up.
It is also worth noting that you can bring this cost down by utilising Mercurius Tradr’s referral program, however the savings aren’t ultimately that huge.
What is the Rate of Return?
There are two numbers that are important when it comes to the income potential of Mercurius Tradr. The first of these is the RoC. Fabrizio Machella, Lorezo Malanga, and Mario Ciardulli claim that this stands at 22.85 units. We are also told that there is a yield of 3%. Neither result of which is particularly bad, however, I do not believe that they paint a full picture.
You see, when you look at the actual results chart for Mercurius Tradr, it is pretty inconsistent. The profit that we see at the time of writing is actually where Mercurius Tradr was pretty consistently some 10 months ago. It is also almost half of what it peaked out at in November. The point here being that whilst there may well be some consistent profit on a long enough time scale, it is very inconsistent and has shown considerable drawdown as well.
Conclusion for Mercurius Tradr
So, I want to start by being entirely upfront here. I genuinely believe that on a long enough timescale, Mercurius Tradr will make you money. The fact of the matter is that Fabrizio Machella, Lorezo Malanga, and Mario Ciardulli are constantly updating their AI and the approach and ultimately, you would hope that this refining will make for a better product.
And I also have to say that they are very upfront about the fact that this is very much a long term project that requires long term thinking. But is it actually good enough to warrant the very large start up costs?
This is where the waters start to get a bit muddied for me. You see, when I look at betting products, I am typically dealing with much more realistic numbers for people. And to most people, €10,000 is a bloody lot of money. And once you have sunk it into Mercurius Tradr, then you have to keep it in there for a while.
This leads me to my first consideration. How much would you miss €10,000? You see, one of the appeals of betting to me is that it can be much more flexible than other types of investment. If you need to take £2,000 out of your betting accounts to fix the boiler, it’s as simple as going to a bookie and withdrawing it.
With something like Mercurius Tradr, your money just doesn’t have that same flexibility, which means that if you are reliant on having assets that retain some liquidity, this simply isn’t going to be for you at all. As such, you really have to be sure that you aren’t going to miss that €10,000 from your personal finances.
The other consideration relating to this is how long you are able to leave the money in there. The longer you run Mercurius Tradr, the more you should see on your returns. Again, there is that point about long term investment. But taking a relatively small amount year on year only becomes worthwhile if you are willing to sit on it for a long time.
Now, there are positives as well here. One of the main ones is that you will only be paying out when you are in profit. If Mercurius Tradr doesn’t perform, then ultimately, it doesn’t cost you anything. That is no bad thing and honestly, it is a bit of a rarity when it comes to investment opportunities.
Furthermore, there is the very attractive idea that this is entirely hands off. You literally don’t have to do anything but receive your quarterly payments. This means that no matter what you have going on in your life, it can be like simply receiving a little bit of a bonus every now and then.
So, would I recommend it? Personally, I am not certain that I would right now. The fact is that Fabrizio Machella, Lorezo Malanga, and Mario Ciardulli and the team are constantly looking at improving, and the results do seem to be slightly more consistent under the newest model than they have been historically. There is also that fact that Mercurius Tradr isn’t regulated. Whilst this is often the case with betting products of this ilk, it remains a quite valid concern to have.
Just coming back to those results, there is a suggestion to me that there is perhaps further refinement to be done in the future that will produce a better end result. Not to say that the end results right now are necessarily terrible. I just think they carry some quite significant shorter term risk.
And that is about where I think it is reasonable to start wrapping things up. Honestly, I have seen much worse products than Mercurius Tradr that are geared towards a similar set up. I also believe that there is just so much potential here as well over the long term. I do believe that you will make money here.
Furthermore, a fair amount of the volatility seems to have dropped out of Mercurius Tradr. Looking at their timeframe for previous updates to the system, they appear to be every 6 months or so. Given that we are about half way towards the next update of this, I may be inclined to hold out for a little bit if you were considering it as an option.
And that consideration is important. This isn’t something that you can realistically invest in frivolously. In fact, I would be inclined to view this in the same way that you would if you were investing in stocks. Which of course means that it isn’t for everyone. However, there are ways in which Mercurius Tradr very much differs as well, and a big part of this is the betting exchange.
There aren’t numbers provided in terms of how many members Mercurius Tradr has, but you have to wonder just what effect.