Odds Movers is a relatively new to market horse racing tipster service which is operated by The Elite Betting Club. So far, it has produced rather modest profits, despite some ups and downs.
Introduction to Odds Movers
The wider betting and tipster landscape is an interesting thing, at least, from my position. Because there are so many different offerings out there. Some of those come courtesy of well known tipster stables. Others come from genuine independent tipsters who are looking to sell their tips. And of course, let’s not forget the many charlatans that are out there, all pandering hundreds of thousands of pounds of profit in a few weeks. But we all know of them. What you may not know about are the many other services out there.
Today, I want to look at something that sits in the middle of that tipster stable and independent tipster grouping. You see, The Elite Betting Club do technically operate multiple tipster services. In actual fact, they have 3 of them. And to the best of my knowledge, they are all ran by Ben, the founder of the site. So… is this an independent tipster or a stable? Honestly, I don’t know. But what I do know is that the latest offering in the form of Odds Movers has been quite heavily marketed. Which, of course, means I have to look at it.
Now, straight off the bat, it is clear to me that this is something that is a very mixed bag, There are some positives to what The Elite Betting Club are doing with Odds Movers, and it is also clear that there some elements that Ben perhaps struggles with. Elements that I don’t think it is unreasonable to say are reflected in the results. All of this means that there is actually quite a lot of ground to cover here, and as such, I want to get straight to it.
What Does Odds Movers Offer?
At its core, Odds Movers is exactly what you would probably expect from a horse racing tipster service. Something that doesn’t have to be a bad thing at all. In actual fact, some of the better services that I think I’ve looked at haven’t tried to innovate or do anything new. However, as I’ve already somewhat hinted at, there is also a lot here that is very atypical.
I want to start by talking about the operational side of things. Honestly, this is an area where The Elite Betting Club excels. As you would expect in this day and age, selections are issued to subscribers directly via email. These contain a decent amount of information including advised odds (something that I always welcome). Importantly, the odds are generally achievable to get. There is also occasionally running commentary and insight from Ben.
Something worth noting here is that you probably do want to try and use a bookie that provides BOG. Prices can move (it’s right there in the name) and you should be leveraging every advantage you can. Building on that, and I know I sound like a stuck record here, I would definitely look to take advantage of an odds comparison site, if possible. There are a lot of bets advised through Odds Movers that have low odds and maximising them seems worthwhile for the time that it takes.
Whilst we’re in the neighbourhood, let’s talk about those odds and what I mean exactly. So far this month, based off my calculation, there have been just 3 bets with advised odds in excess of 5/1. That sits at the top end of what I would consider to be “middling odds”, which I think tells you a lot about most of the other odds that are advised.
In terms of the bets, there are always limited betting markets available when it comes to horse racing. This usually means either backing horses to win, backing horses on an each way basis, and sometimes laying horses on an exchange. This is a backing service. And, as you can probably guess from the odds, there isn’t much point backing each way. So, keeping with that theme of “typicalness”, you are just backing horses to win here.
The final topic that I want to touch on in terms of the bets is the volume. The Elite Betting Club launched Odds Movers towards the back end of October last year. Since then, there have been 277 bets advised. This included 135 bets in November and 73 in December (with that lower number influenced by the lack of racing over Christmas). Now, as averages, that doesn’t look too bad.
Unfortunately, the actual spread of bets is wildly different. This can be quite a high volume service with some days producing as many as 8 or 9 selections. Don’t misconstrue me, it isn’t a daily occurrence, but it is something that happens often enough that it warrants a serious mention.
Now, this leads me into the staking plan, and this is an interesting beast. First things first, technically speaking, Odds Movers is a simple level staking affair. You stake 1 point per bet. However, there are also compounding factors too, which mean that the value of a point will rise as you profit (at least in theory). Specifically, every 100 bets, you recalculate if the bank has increased.
What does concern me a little bit is the fact that The Elite Betting Club recommends a betting bank of just 50 points. Frankly, that isn’t a huge buffer, and I can’t help but feel like the potential drawdown here is quite significant.
In the 3 or so months that Odds Movers has been live, the longest losing streak has been 16 bets. But there have also been periods where, despite a few small wins, there have been losses amounting to just shy of 35 points. That is a lot. All of this culminates in a strike rate of around 32%. That isn’t bad in theory, but because of those lower odds involved, it does present some longer term concerns for me.
How Does Odds Movers Work?
One of the things that I like about The Elite Betting Club is that they are very upfront about things. And when it comes to Odds Movers, I think there are, realistically, two key things in play in terms of how it works. First things first, there is the experience of Ben. He is the guy behind all of The Elite Betting Club, and he has considerable experience with horse racing. Importantly though, he is very much a statistics man.
This is something that is reflected when he talks about the specifics of Odds Movers. He says that there are four factors considered when making selections. “these are form, statistics, odds movement and unique ratings”. Honestly, I don’t think that is a bad place to start. It is quite clear what kind of things go into the approach.
Furthermore, we are told that this has all been set up to give “the foundations we need to consistently win long-term at betting”. We are then told that Odds Movers is ideal for those who like a good solid strike rate (which is probably fair) and “plenty of decent odds winner”. I have to disagree somewhat with this, what with the biggest winner since Christmas being 5/2.
What I do think is a credit to Ben is the fact that he provides full and comprehensive proofing for Odds Movers. This means that, at the very least, if you can get a good idea of what you are getting yourself into.
What is the Initial Investment?
In terms of pricing for Odds Movers… Well, that is a very interesting thing. This is mostly because… Well, it’s a bit everywhere. And it quite literally seems to vary from week to week. Now, I do want to create some context for this, because I appreciate that it is a strange statement.
Firstly, The Elite Betting Club offer a full 30 day long free trial (at least, at the time of writing). This gives you a good amount of time to see if this is for you. Once you sign up, you will tend to start getting offers coming through from Ben. In my experience, these have ranged from £15 per month to £18 per month. Alternatively, I have seen pricing at £120 per year.
None of these options come with any sort of refund period etc. however, I think that given the fact you have that 30 day free trial, it isn’t necessarily a deal breaker. Furthermore, it isn’t exactly like The Elite Betting Club are asking a huge amount of money for Odds Movers.
What is the Rate of Return?
In terms of the profit, things are, rather unfortunately, a little bit lacking in my opinion. The overall profit since launching in October stands at 27.34 points. Given that we’re looking at around 3 months, that is a monthly profit of about 9 points. Now, that isn’t terrible. And fair play to Ben, Odds Movers has made a profit there. But it isn’t exactly a massive amount, I think it’s fair to say.
Furthermore, that is a long way from the big picture here. At the end of December, Odds Movers was on a profit of 44 points, which shows that January (at the time of writing) is showing a loss. That is quite significant.
Conclusion for Odds Movers
I can see what The Elite Betting Club are trying to do here. It’s apparent when you look at how Odds Movers is supposed to work. But unfortunately, I don’t think that it works quite as well in practice. The problem is that whilst Ben talks about “decent odds winners”, what I see here just doesn’t quite gel with that.
Don’t get me wrong, historically, there have been good weeks where Odds Movers has achieved this. But for every bet that wins at higher than evens, there are plenty that come in at less than that. And when you are subtracting a point on every losing race, and even in the best cases bringing in maybe 4 or so points of profit… Well, it just doesn’t go as far as you would want. Especially when you’re dealing with long losing streaks.
Now, there is an argument that I am quite certain would be made that Odds Movers is based around a long term profit edge. That’s actually something that is said in the sales material. And, I will concede that on a long enough timescale, this may well end up in profit. But the fact is that a lot of bettors don’t have the inclination to wait for months for a decent spell. Especially not with so many tipsters on the market.
And that brings me to what I think is the biggest problem with Odds Movers. The competition. Look, if I were reviewing this in a vacuum, and there were no other tipster services in the world, I might say 9 points per month isn’t bad as an average. But that isn’t the case. There is competition, and the blunt truth is that some of it just performs better than this.
Don’t get me wrong,. In theory, this is worth a try. I mean… It’s free for 30 days. Plenty of time to bet on paper and see how you think you’d get on. And furthermore, I don’t think that The Elite Betting Club necessarily do anything wrong here. I know for a fact that I’ve seen much worse tipster services than this at substantially higher costs.
For my money, the big problem that I have with Odds Movers is simply that there are products out there that can perform better for me. And furthermore, they do it without all of the potential risk. Because I do think that is a very big part of this as a service. I know that Ben would probably disagree, after all, this is supposed to be a long term profit.
The issue that I have with that is that in order to prove that something works long term, well, you have to trial it long term. A martingale roulette system works long term on paper. Using that, you will eventually generate a guaranteed profit. But the reality is that eventually, you will run out of money before you get that profit back. What I’d have liked to have seen here is just some more extensive proofing.
So, as it is, I don’t think that I would recommend Odds Movers. If it can work long term, great, but I want to see that happening. 3 months is not a lot of time to be talking about long term edges. Especially when you profits aren’t necessarily competitive with some of the competition. If you do however want to see what the fuss is about… Well, it’s not like it’s going to cost you anything.