On the Ball is a new to market football tipster service that is being offered through Telegram Tips. The team behind the service make some quite extraordinary claims.
Introduction to On the Ball
There is no right or wrong way to approach betting. Even taking the approach that you are going to bet with the intent to lose has its place if you are only betting for entertainment. This idea is something that actually has a very big part to play when it comes to measuring how successful a tipster service actually is. Because the blunt truth of the matter is that different people will see things in different ways. There isn’t a right or a wrong way to measure success. Which makes this work quite difficult sometimes.
This is very applicable with today’s review subject, On the Ball. You see, the sales material for this makes it look like you are on to an absolutely guaranteed, nailed on winner. There is a lot of talk about profit, how much you can expect to see as a return for the profit. But it’s all kept a little bit out of context. Now, don’t get me wrong, I will very happily concede the fact that the service that Telegram Tips have put out here is one with bags of potential. But there are also some very good reasons why you might not want to wait for this to be realised.
You see, what you have here is a tipster service that has, in many respects, performed as advertised (up to a point, but that’s a whole different kettle of fish). And with those advertised numbers being so impressive, you really might think that On the Ball is ultimately a winner. Well, the answer to this is really quite complicated, as I’ve already inferred. All of this means that there is quite a lot of ground to cover, so let’s see whether or not Telegram Tips are onto the real deal here or not.
What Does On the Ball Offer?
Honestly, On the Ball is one of the most simple and straightforward tipster services that I have seen for some time. Something that regular readers of mine will know I don’t mean as a criticism. In actual fact, given the broader scope of what Telegram Tips are actually putting out here, I think that it is an incredibly beneficial thing.
One of the first things to note about On the Ball is that this is a very long way from a typical daily tipster service. Now, you might just think that this is down to the fact that the service is concerned with football. After all, we see that quite a lot. But here it is taken to a new extreme.
The fact of the matter is that there is often a good few days before selections are advised. What is really quite intriguing about this though is the fact that On the Ball isn’t just concerned with a single league. Whilst you might expect this sort of thing from a tipster service that looks exclusively at one league, the team behind this don’t.
In actual fact, it has been some time since I’ve looked at a service that is quite this varied. In the short time that Telegram Tips have been proofing this, there have been selections for various big football leagues, but also consideration for stuff like the CONCAF qualifiers and the Albanian League. On the Ball gets pretty niche.
Of course, I feel like this variance is pretty much necessary. Because On the Ball is a lay betting tipster service. For those of you who aren’t aware of lay betting, it is a fundamentally very simple principle. You are betting against an outcome. This means that there are less outcomes that mean you lose. For example, laying an away team means that a home victory or a draw puts money in your pocket.
This does of course mean that if you’re going to follow On the Ball, you have to use a betting exchange. Telegram Tips mention Betfair and Betdaq. These are the larger exchanges and definitely hold the most liquidity, but it is always worth considering a smaller exchange like Smarkets that charge much less commission on wins.
However you are betting though, there are a few things that you can expect in terms of the management of On the Ball, and this is where Telegram Tips excel. You see, unlike some betting services, you actually get a decent amount of insight into what you’re betting on and importantly for lay betting, information on odds. And you have to act quite quickly on this with the advice being that if you cannot lay “within a 0.3 window LEAVE the match alone”.
As such, whilst On the Ball does have an option to receive selections via email, there is also the opportunity to sign up for their Telegram group. This is an app which sends messages directly to your phone, and claims to be the fastest messaging app in the world. This means that you have the most chance to quickly respond to those advised odds.
Something to keep in mind about this though is that you can get quiet a few bets on the same day. Whilst the overall volume of bets for On the Ball is really very modest, there are a good few days where you will potentially be laying 3 different bets on that day. With the very slight tolerance to the odds, that isn’t ideal. It is doable mind. But it’s a very significant consideration.
This only really leaves the numbers side of things to talk about. First things first, stakes. It is recommended that you are using stakes of anywhere form 1 point per bet to 3 points, dependent on previous results. Whilst the odds Telegram Tips proof show that your liability is theoretically minimised (this is a very low odds service for a laying tipster), you may end up paying a fair old amount if you lose.
Finally, the strike rate. As you might expect from a service of this nature, the strike rate for On the Ball is very strong. In fact, Telegram Tips say in the sales material that this figure stands at around 83%. Their proofing does however show that this has dropped a little bit since then, currently standing at 80%. A still quite respectable number.
How Does On the Ball Work?
There are a few elements to how On the Ball as a service works, and they are all actually quite important. Which isn’t necessarily something that I get to say often. First and foremost, I want to address arguably the most important point. That is the selection process. Unfortunately, we aren’t told a whole lot. In fact, all that Telegram Tips really say is that there is a “unique algorithm” and that it can find games “where one of the teams has a huge price anomaly”.
The second element of On the Ball is of course using lay betting. I don’t want to dwell too much on this because… well, it is what it is. Something that I often say is that a type of bet does not a betting system make. I stand by this. But it is also hard to ignore that in using lay betting, you are dealing with a narrower field. Resultantly, it is much easier to get a desirable outcome.
Now I want to talk about the element of how On the Ball “works” that I consider to be the most important. And that is the way that liability is managed. You see, with lay betting, when a bet loses you pay out based off the odds that you layed at. Somehow, the team behind this are consistently picking out relatively low odds bets, and are winning. This of course limits the liability to some degree. But they also actually offer advice on when not to bet. Something that you rarely see with this kind of thing.
Finally, whilst not how On the Ball works, there is also the fact that Telegram Tips provide incredibly comprehensive proofing for the service. This is still relatively short lived however. As such, it does give you a reasonable idea of what you are getting into. I would say however that I don’t believe it to be something that you should be making decisions on the back of.
What is the Initial Investment?
If you want to sign up to On the Ball there are three different options that Telegram Tips have available. These differ wildly in terms of the value that is on offer, as well as the actual costs. The cheapest option is a monthly subscription. This is priced at £47 per month, but as the lowest outlay subscription, it is also the worst value.
There is better value for money to be had in a quarterly subscription. This comes with a trial offer where your first 3 months will cost you £49. Once that has elapsed, the cost goes up to £87 per quarter. Still a very substantial reduction on the monthly cost. The best value comes from signing up to On the Ball for 6 months though which despite the higher outlay of a one time payment of £97, is the cheapest long term.
Something to note is that there is no sort of money back guarantee or refund offered on On the Ball. This is pretty much standard practice for services from Telegram Tips and as such, doesn’t count too much against it. It is however something that I think is worth keeping in mind.
What is the Rate of Return?
Ok, let’s talk about the profits. Because this is the element of On the Ball that I think is probably the most contentious. This is a service that is effectively headlined with “£3845 profit since October with on average just 5 bets a week”. That is, or rather was (based off the time of writing this) an unassailable fact. Telegram Tips are well within their rights to claim this.
Here’s the thing though. That is all based off £100 stakes. That means that what you’re actually looking at is a points profit of just 38.45. That was at the start of January. Since then, a few unfortunately results have seen On the Ball lose money. That isn’t the concern here. I think that long term, that will be made up. But 38.45 points in 3 months isn’t the best result.
Conclusion for On the Ball
Look, a profit is a profit. And the point of something like On the Ball isn’t that you’re going to “get rich quick”. It’s about building your profits with a sustainable approach to betting. Something that I like, and that I respect. But that doesn’t mean that this is necessarily the right product to bring all of that together.
First things first, I want to talk about the staking plan. That is a doozie of a thing. In theory, you face losses, you increase your point stakes per bet, by 3 bets, you win and you’re roughly back where you were before the loss. But this can go wrong. In fact, it did go wrong. Not long after On the Ball went live as it happens.
You see, because On the Ball is low odds, you don’t lose much per bet. On the losing run that I am referring to, there was a 0.6 point loss, then a 1.8 point loss, and then a 1.7 point loss. Disappointing, but all things considered, you’re looking at just 4.1 points. A winning week, and you’re back in profit. It’s much better than other laying services I’ve looked at.
Let’s factor in the staking plan though. All of a sudden, that becomes much worse. The losses amounted to 9.3 points. 25% of the profit that was made to date. So, when the staking plan works, it works well. But it does carry a lot of potential to damage your betting bank as well. What is quite unfortunate is that whilst the team behind On the Ball are very clearly aware that this kind of run of results is a possibility, Telegram Tips themselves skip over it a bit.
So, what we’ve established here is that On the Ball isn’t quite the bed of roses it’s made out to be. But I was expecting, if I’m honest. And all of that is stuff that can be leaned from and is arguably a short term problem. But the longer term issues are where this gets a bit iffy. So, let’s talk about value for money.
Before I get into this, I want to preface by pointing out that I generally calculate stakes to £10 per point. That way, every service is ultimately judged in the same light. I am not naïve however, and I can see that there could be an argument for increasing your stakes with something like On the Ball. With less bets and lower odds, I can see why you might want to adjust your bank. But I won’t be.
Which brings me to my point here. On the Ball is pretty expensive. You see, using those £10 stakes, we can see that by the end of December, it was up 32.8 points using Telegram Tips’s proofing. £328. Then factor in that you’re paying out £141 for your monthly subs. Then you’re at just 4.7 points per month. That isn’t a lot given the risk that is here. It isn’t that is bad. It just isn’t that good.
And that is ultimately why I wouldn’t recommend On the Ball as it is. I just think that it’s asking a lot from you in order to be profitable to a point that is worthwhile. There are ways that you can reframe all of this, but this is a service that in its best month saw 16.15 points of profit. Sure, that’s not bad, but it just doesn’t leave much room for profit.
Building on that, all of that is based off the idea that you actually get the odds to be able to back a bet. Which of course, there are no guarantees on. It’s all just a bit… uncertain in my mind. And for a service with a strike rate of 80%, that uncertainty shouldn’t be there.
Now, I don’t think that any of that means that On the Ball is a bad product. I will personally be keeping an eye on this. I do think that Telegram Tips may be onto something very good. But it needs time to figure out some teething problems and establish longer term performance. until it does that… well, I just don’t see it as being something that is crying out to be invested in.
