Outsider Hunter is a new to market horse racing tipster service which is operated by Eric Best. He claims that his selections have produced some huge profits backing longshot horses.
Introduction to Outsider Hunter
It is, generally speaking, widely accepted that one of the best ways to produce and maintain a long term profit is to exploit value. Now, value is something that has a clear definition, and yet, it is also something that can be shockingly vague in its execution. Now effectively, value is something that exists when a bookmaker has overpriced a horse. For example, the bookies have it at 10/1, but the actual odds are around 8/1. But what is really interesting is that these discrepancies tend to be on longer shots.
This brings me nicely to Outsider Hunter. Because this is a tipster service that is based entirely around backing longer shots. However, it should be noted that backing long shots doesn’t necessarily go hand in hand with value. Which makes for a very interesting tipster service at first glance. Especially when you factor in that there are just… So many examples of supposedly winning bets provided by Eric Best. But all of this raises questions in my mind.
You see, whilst things look good enough at first, when you actually look a little deeper at Outsider Hunter it is quite concerning. Especially in light of some numbers that, if I’m really honest, almost seem too good to be true. And there is even more going on here that I intend to cover over the course of this review, so, with all of that out there, let’s get straight into it.
What Does Outsider Hunter Offer?
When you talk about what a tipster service offers, there are a few different routes that you can take. Various elements that you can talk about that ultimately showcase what a service is about, what kinds of things you can expect to see if you sign up etc. With Outsider Hunter though, I think that the sub header tells you everything that you should need to know. “Get Big Priced Winners On A Regular Basis”.
With this relatively simple mission statement for Outsider Hunter, let’s talk about what exactly Eric Best is doing here. One of the first things that I have to admit to being a fan of is that this isn’t a daily tipster service. We are explicitly told that he doesn’t “bet every day if there are no races that meet my criteria”. Something we are told happened on 3 days in a 3 week period. There are also no selections on a Sunday.
In terms of the other elements of how Eric Best manages his service, it is generally very straight forward. As you would probably expect from pretty much any modern tipster service, selections are sent out directly via email. Something that is pretty much industry standard at this point.
Somewhat unfortunately, the wider management feels a little bit lacking in my opinion. There isn’t a huge amount of information included with the selection emails, and you also don’t get a huge amount of time to try and seek out value bets. A point that, in theory, shouldn’t be problematic, however, I do believe that some of the claims that Eric Best makes are a little questionable to some degree.
There is an implication that you should simply be looking to place your bets with Betfair Sportsbook and SkyBet. Something that we are told effectively boils down to the fact that on some races, they offer a higher number of places on each way bets. This is all well and good in theory but I can’t help but wonder, long term, whether this is better than simply maximising the value that you are able to get on bets.
Given where we’re up to, I may as well move onto the bets themselves since we’re already in that ballpark. And not surprisingly, since you’re dealing with those longer odds, Eric Best recommends backing all selections through Outsider Hunter on an each way basis. Something that undoubtedly makes a lot of sense. And if I’m honest, you see this when you start to look at the outcomes (a point that I will be picking up).
I feel like at this point, I’ve done nothing but talk about longer odds betting, so let’s talk about that. Examples go as high as 66/1 and are generally, are higher than single number odds. As a bit of a one off, these higher numbers would be pretty outstanding, but let’s not forget the fact that Eric Best is delivering these near day in and day out… Well, that is truly incredible.
This applies doubly so when you look at the incredibly high volume of selections that are involved. Across 40 races, Eric Best says that he made 126 selections. All in about 15 actual betting days. That works out at around 8 bets per day, which is a huge amount to have to place. It also drastically increases the risk involved too.
So, let’s talk numbers for a minute. Firstly, I want to address Eric Best’s claimed strike rate. He says that his bets have an “in profit” strike rate of 57.94%. What is meant by this is that almost 60% of bets produced a profit. Meanwhile, the winning strike rate (wherein a horse has won the race) stands at 17.4%. A hugely impressive number when you look at the odds that are involved.
Meanwhile, you are staking level stakes on each bet. Given the each way nature and the fact that Eric Best is staking £20 per bet in his “proofing”, I am inclined to call this 2 point stakes per bet. £10 on the win, £10 on the place. That means that in 15 days, 252 points were staked which is a mind-blowingly high number. Especially given the fact there is no advice on a starting bank, and if you hit a losing patch… Well, that will add up very quickly.
How Does Outsider Hunter Work?
Rather frustratingly, we aren’t given a whole lot of insight into how Outsider Hunter works exactly. Eric Best talks a little bit about what happens behind the scenes, but I do take some exception to this. Because here’s the thing. Picking out consistently undervalued horses is a difficult thing to do. To do that 8 times a day and get it right enough to make money 6 times in 10 is a bloody miracle.
As such, when Eric Best talks about how Outsider Hunter is based around “Finding runners that are dropping in distance or grade, horses carrying smaller handicaps”. Well, that all sounds well and good, but as somebody who talks with various people involved in betting, that isn’t the kind of foundation that warrants staking £160 per day on. I really wanted to see more than a vague description here. Because at the end of the day, backing an outside is still backing an outsider. There has to be some good logic there.
The other factor that is at play with Outsider Hunter is that you use those specific bookies mentioned before. This is something that does make sense, but the number of races where you gain substantially more places isn’t that huge. Generally speaking you gain one extra place, however, in my experience, this does somewhat tend to be built into the odds available. As such, this isn’t the golden ticket it is made out to be.
Outside of this, there are some very questionable allusions to how bookies are playing punters and how obvious that is. But all of this seems to be flavour text to within the copy to sell you on Eric Best “being on your side” than any real insight. Something that when I see, generally sets alarm bells ringing for reasons I will discuss a little later.
What is the Initial Investment?
There are two options available if you want to sign up to Outsider Hunter, neither of which I would consider to be particularly inexpensive if I’m honest. The first one is significantly cheaper and is priced at £40 (plus VAT) for which you receive tips for 2 months.
Alternatively, you can sign up to Outsider Hunter for a full year. This is priced significantly higher at a cost of £120 (again, plus VAT). That is a significant amount of money to pay out for something that is seemingly based on just 3 weeks of insight.
What is really noteworthy to me in terms of the pricing structure for Outsider Hunter however isn’t necessarily the cost. It’s the fact that Eric Best fails to mention, at all, that there is a 60 day money back guarantee in place. Something that is backed up by Clickbank through whom payment is handled. It always strikes me as a worrying thing whenever I see a product wherein this is in place, but nothing is mentioned by the seller.
What is the Rate of Return?
There is one main claim that is made in terms of the income potential for Outsider Hunter. All of which are incredibly interesting to me. First things first, there are the claims made on the main sales page. Here, Eric Best claims that Outsider Hunter has made a profit of £3,414.55. An incredible amount of money to make in 3 weeks of betting. Using the stakes on the betting slip, this means 341.45 points.
Let me tell you that if Eric Best can actually deliver on this number, it would be something truly incredible. Because those kinds of numbers are in line with what I would reasonably expect from a tipster service over the course of an exceptional year. Here though, we are expected to believe that this profit has been attained in just a few weeks.
Conclusion for Outsider Hunter
There are a few different things that I am always wary of, and, if I’m honest, with good reason. Rarely do these kinds of things appear in a tipster service that works out particularly well. Something that I really want you to keep in mind when we talk about Outsider Hunter, because on the surface of things, this looks like an absolute winner.
We’re talking huge amounts of profit here. We’re talking about bets that, even with a short term point of view, are going to win consistently. Honestly, the way this is all presented, Outsider Hunter may as well be a risk free tipster service. I mean, even betting on favourites, you could generally expect to see a strike rate of around 70%. So for Eric Best to be backing double odds horses and still getting 60$… That is truly exceptional.
And that is really the crux of why I’m just not entirely sold on this. Not the results in and of themselves, but I can’t help but feel like there is a lot missing that really demonstrates them results. Sure, the huge list of betting slips seem to be genuinely solid evidence. I mean, surely those bets have to have been placed in order for said slips to exist?
But I am sceptical. In fact, I find them to be rather questionable. The truth is that in my experience, I am yet to see a service that relies on them deliver. Meanwhile, this kind of thing is relatively easily manipulated if you know what you are doing. But even if that isn’t the case here, I can’t help but feel like the best case scenario, with no context, is that Eric Best could simply have cherry picked a lot of results.
All of this is worrying enough to me, but I can’t help but feel like it applies doubly so when you look at the fact that so much of Outsider Hunter is just taking Eric Best’s word for it that he has a good idea. And in theory, he does. But if I’m completely honest, I can’t tell you how many tipster I have looked at who have had a theoretically good idea, only to be gone a few months after launching.
If you ask me, I just don’t see a lot of “bang for your buck” with Outsider Hunter, despite the fact that there should be loads of it. The fact is that whilst that average number of £20 per month isn’t overly expensive, I think that Eric Best is asking a pretty hefty amount considering the wider circumstances here. And it is because of that, I just can’t bring myself to recommend this.