Outsider Insider Bets Review

Outsider Insider is a new to market horse racing tipster service which is offered by the Best System Bets team. Selections come via tipster Alex Hamilton.

Introduction to Outsider Insider

The world of horse racing betting is an interesting one. Arguably more so than any other sport. And that is in part down to the restrictions that the sport imposes. You see, with football (for example) there are tons of markets to bet on. Back a team to win, back a player to score and in what minute, bet on there being more than 12 corner kicks. Hell, combine all of these elements into one bet if you want. With horse racing though, a horse wins, it places, or it loses.

This simplicity leads to remarkably interesting betting strategies, which brings me to today’s subject, Outsider Insider. This is a tipster service like none I’ve seen before. Honestly, when Alex Hamilton started out saying “there is nothing quite like this out there”, I though, sure. If I’d had a quid for every time I heard that… But his strategy does seem to be at least somewhat unique. And as such, I was actually quite excited to get my teeth into this.

Especially because we are also told that there is a lot of profit potential. However, with that said, I can’t help but feel like Alex Hamilton and Best System Bets are  far too keen to skip over the risk with Outsider Insider. In actual fact, I may go as far as to say that this is one of the riskier tipster services I have ever seen. The question is whether or not the ends justify the means here.

What Does Outsider Insider Offer?

There is quite a lot to unpack when it comes to Outsider Insider. However, with that said, there are also some elements that are actually pretty straight forward. Now, I want to start by talking logistics. Because in many ways this is the least important element of what Alex Hamilton is trying to do here.

Outsider Insider is a daily horse racing tipster service. And as you have probably come to expect in this day and age, selections are sent out directly via email to Alex Hamilton’s subscribers. Factor in that Best System Bets manage a lot of tipster services, and there isn’t a lot here that can really go wrong.

Bets are sent out on the morning of racing, usually around 10.30am. Now, typically speaking, I would be a bit critical of this. After all, it certainly closes a lot of doors in terms of who can follow Outsider Insider. Let’s be honest, if you work a 9-5, you aren’t necessarily in a place to just drop everything and get some bets placed. With that said, it is also somewhat integral to how the whole thing works, so it gets a pass here.

The quality of the emails that you receive is… Well, it’s about enough. With that said, if you are going to follow Outsider Insider, I would recommend using an odds comparison site. I know that it seems like I recommend this on everything (and why wouldn’t I really?), but with what Alex Hamilton is doing here, it seems somewhat integral to ensure that you are getting the best odds.

Which of course lead me into the topic of the bets themselves. Now, we are told by Alex Hamilton that there are “No Each-Way bets, just old-fashioned on the nose backing”. Which is fair enough. Except, the limited evidence that Best System Bets provide for Outsider Insider shows 3 each way bets being placed. This also becomes problematic when it comes to talking about the profits involved.

What can be said however is that Outsider Insider is definitely a low volume service. In actual fact, Alex Hamilton advises just 1 selection per day. This means that at the best least, this isn’t a particularly time consuming service to follow. Even if you are seeking the best possible odds.

Talking of which. They are something of the elephant in the room, because the entire concept of Outsider Insider is that of using long odds betting. It is right there in the name. Alex Hamilton is the insider, and the bets that are advised are all your outsiders.

This leas to a situation whereby we are told that the minimum odds that you will be advised to back a horse at are 13/2. Now, Alex Hamilton often cuts this very fine and you will often see this bottom end of the spectrum tipped. However, you also see some very long shots as well including a 50/1 outsider which came in.

Of course, betting exclusively on outsiders has a massive impact on everything. The most obvious element is the strike rate, which, as you would expect isn’t particularly high. In fact, Alex Hamilton says that he aims to just pick 5 winners per month with Outsider Insider and that this is all that is needed to make a profit. We’ll come back to this shortly.

But the fact is that according to Best System Bets’ very limited proofing (effectively a list of bets placed in June), there is a strike rate of around 24%. This is significantly higher than the 16.5% that most months would require.

Of course, with a low strike rate comes risk. Now, to his credit, Alex Hamilton does somewhat tackle this. There is a straight forward level staking plan of just 1 point per bet (with all proofing to £50 stakes). And in theory, just 5 wins at those minimum odds of 13/2 would mean a very small profit for the month. So, it all fits, right?

Well, I’m not so sure. You see, one of the things that Alex Hamilton and Best System Bets are keen to push is that this is “Mathematically Proven To Produce Regular Profit”. And that is to some degree true (a point I will be picking up later). But that doesn’t alter that there is significant drawdown risk if your bets aren’t winning. Which most of the time, they won’t be.

And to top this off, there isn’t actually any advice on what kind of betting bank you will need here. Realistically, I’d be looking at having at least 100 points here. Given the low volume that would mean over 3 months of losing bets before you went through it. But this is only speculation. It is frustrating that Alex Hamilton has supposedly been doing this since the end of 2018, and yet, there is simply no insight into the matter.

How Does Outsider Insider Work?

I started this all off by talking a little bit about the importance of strategies when it comes to horse racing betting. Those limited markets almost foster creativity, and what Alex Hamilton is doing here is definitely creative. By only backing bets with longer odds, you don’t have to win as often to make a profit. And if a bet does land, the profit potential can be massive.

We’ve seen this in the results for Outsider Insider and in theory it works. Like Best System Bets say, Outsider Insider is “mathematically proven”. Except, I rather take exception to this kind of statement. Because all that mathematically proven means here is that if you are betting at certain odds, and you win at the rate you expect, you are guaranteed a profit.

I can do that too. If I exclusively back one horse a day at 250/1 to 1 point bets. Then I only need 2 horses to win a year in order to make a massive profit. It’s mathematically proven. 2 x 250 = 500. There are 365 days in a year, so it’s mathematically proven that I can make £13,500 per year this way. Does that really sound right to you?

The other problem that I have with Outsider Insider is something that is increasingly problematic. Namely, there isn’t a lot of information on what the selection process entails.Alex Hamilton says that he pays attention to several things when making selections. And that there are “a multitude of factors that spell potential”.

We are also told that the method “actively targets those that go under the radar of the big bookmakers, those wrongly-priced under-dogs that don’t tick all the boxes a favourite would”. Again, I am forced back to the point that this sounds like Alex Hamilton knows what he is talking about. It makes sense on paper. But it doesn’t actually tell you anything of substance, and that is concerning to me.

What is the Initial Investment?

If you are interested in signing up to Outsider Insider, then there is just one pricing structures that is  available, albeit a very flexible one. This at least means that if you are keen on pursuing this, there should be something for everybody.

It is noteworthy that this is a Best System Bets product and as such, you have to sign up through their own proprietary payment platform. This definitely helps to keep the costs down, which isn’t a bad thing. Unfortunately, your purchases are hugely restricted if you aren’t happy with the end result.

With that said, let’s get down to the business end of things. The first subscription option for Outsider Insider is to get your first 30 days for just £7 (plus VAT). One this has elapsed; you can expect to pay £19.95 (plus VAT) per month. As well as this, there is an option for a quarterly subscription which is priced at just £29.95 every 3 months (again, plus VAT).

If you are looking for a longer subscription than this, then Alex Hamilton offers a few options for Outsider Insider on an annual subscription at a cost of £59 (plus VAT). Finally, there is a lifetime license which Alex Hamilton offers. This allows you to sign up, for life, for a one time cost of £97 (again, plus VAT) however this is advertised as a limited time offer.

It is noteworthy that none of these options come with any money back guarantee or refund period. As such, you should be very willing to commit to Outsider Insider. Especially if you are signing up for those longer subscription lengths.

What is the Rate of Return?

The headlines for Outsider Insider rather sensationally claim that you can expect to see a profit of “£3,508.75 per month” (which works out at 70.51 points). Probably not surprisingly to you, by this point, I take exception to this claim.

Firstly, that number “per month” number is based off just one month. Coming back to Best System Bets’s claim that Alex Hamilton has been doing this since the end of 2018, you’d expect a more rounded example of the profits Outsider Insider can potentially bring in.

Secondly, undoubtedly a key part of this number is a 50/1 winner Alex Hamilton backed (that was actually an each way bet, but I’ll come back to this). Bringing in that 50 point profit, this seemingly quite exceptional win is instrumental to that bigger claim. As is the fact that all of the evidence is based on £50 stakes.

Conclusion for Outsider Insider

So, Alex Hamilton has made £3,508.75 this month. 70.51 points of profit. Those numbers are… Well, they’re very bloody good. But with that said, it’s just one month in about 20. So, big picture, is Outsider Insider worth it?

Unfortunately, in it’s current state, I don’t believe that it is. And for a bit of a change, the reasons for this are all relatively straightforward. You see, Alex Hamilton does a brilliant job of marketing himself. The leaning into the “mathematical nature” of Outsider Insider makes it all seem like it’s nailed home.

Especially because it’s quite easy to swallow the idea that you only need to back 5 winning horses at the right odds to guarantee a profit. It adds up, and it makes sense. Now with that said, let’s look at the solitary week in which Alex Hamilton actually talks about his results in any sort of detail (which is a problem in and of itself, but I’ll come to this).

The whole thing is really built on that 50/1 bet coming in. Without it, we’d be talking about results that are slightly above average. Now, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that. I know a fair few tipsters who would take 20 points per month as profit if it were consistent. But it doesn’t really sell a service.

This creates a rather unique position whereby the one thing that sells Outsider Insider is something that one would typically consider to be anomalous. Because I don’t really care how Alex Hamilton wants to dress it up, 50/1 horses just don’t come in that often. I was unable to find exact results for this, but for some context, 100/1 bets have a strike rate of just 0.69%. Honestly, I can’t picture this dropping that drastically, even at half the odds.

All of that is enough to frame Outsider Insider in the correct context, but it is far from the biggest problem that I have here. Namely that the big results seem to be recorded differently. I’ll admit that Best System Bets don’t exactly provide any substantive proofing here. But it strikes me as very odd that a number of the “winning bet slips” show an each way bet coming in rather than the straight win bets this is supposed to be built on.

This tells me one of two things. The first, is that the claimed results are… Not exactly reflective of what you can expect. And I’m being very generous there. The other thing that it tells me is that it is plausible that there were actually only 4 proper winning bets in that first month. What I mean by this is bets that actually meet Alex Hamilton’s own rules.

Honestly, this kind of mistake is sloppy. The worst case scenario is that you are looking at doctored and artificial results, which is of course incredibly disconcerting. The best case is probably that there has been some mis explanation of how Outsider Insider works. But if that is the case it also casts doubt on everything else, at least in my book.

I suppose that there is something of a saving grace in so much as Outsider Insider isn’t that expensive. Especially if you are inclined to take up that initial 30 day trial. But ultimately, you are still paying out off the back of some very limited evidence. Realistically, this just isn’t something that I would recommend at all.

And it is because this that ultimately, I can’t bring myself to recommend Outsider Insider as a wider product. For my money, neither Alex Hamilton nor Best System Bets provide any particularly compelling reason to do so. And with so many decent betting services and products out there, I see little reason to pay for something that could go as catastrophically wrong as this can.

 

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From: Simon Roberts