Outsider Profits is a new to market horse racing tipster service that claims to have made some really quite substantial profits. Unfortunately though, I’m not entirely sure how Jacob Mercer’s numbers add up.
Introduction to Outsider Profits
Whilst there are a lot of reasons to consider any tipster service, I feel like the ultimate goal for almost anybody is simple. Make money. And if you can make lots of it, well, that is even better. So, what if I had a tipster service that had supposedly made more points by July than some tipsters will make in 2 years. That is a huge amount of profit, and of course, when I get a lot of emails about this said service… well, it’s even harder to ignore. I mean, people are talking about it. That’s positive buzz, right?
All of this of course brings me to Outsider Profits. Today’s review subject. Which as you might have guessed at this point, Jacob Mercer makes all the claims that I mentioned. But this is about a little bit more than just the profit potential here. It is, at least to some degree, the way that the profit is being delivered. Because this is a service that, as the name suggests, looks at betting on outsiders. Something that has always interested me greatly, if I’m totally honest. Because when I have seen it used properly, it is one of the better ways of gaining value.
This means that what Jacob Mercer is doing isn’t necessarily something that I want to just write off. The fact is that in theory Outsider Profits can work. And if it does, well, the profits are bloody impressive. All of this combined with the fact that there are a few numbers that don’t quite add up makes for a service that is at least a little bit risky in my eyes. Which begs the biggest question here. Is that risk really worth the reward? Let’s get into it and find out.
What Does Outsider Profits Offer?
There is quite a lot to unpack with Outsider Profits. All of which is despite the fact that ultimately, this is a pretty straight forward tipster service. You see, Jacob Mercer makes a lot of claims in the sales material. Some of that is seemingly well grounded and based in reality. Other elements look more like flights of fancy. Because of this, a big part of reviewing the service is separating the two.
Now, I want to start by talking about the logistics of Outsider Profits. This is an area where I feel like things are at their least… well, questionable. Jacob Mercer takes a straight forward approach here. This is (as you would expect from pretty much any modern tipster service) an email based tipster service.
As you might also expect, selections seem to be daily (there might be the odd missing day, but that seems to be a bit of a rarity). So far, so good. Unfortunately, whilst the logistics are very much black and white, Outsider Profits does take a turn for the worse in my opinion. You see, we are told that tips will be sent out “at least 3 hours before the race”. There are a few problems with this.
Firstly, there is the most obvious one. There are plenty of people who simply aren’t in a position to drop everything and place a bet, just because they’ve had an email through. This applies doubly so if you consider my second problem. You are backing outsiders with Outsider Profits. This means that they aren’t likely to win (despite the claims that Jacob Mercer makes, but I’ll come back to this), and as such, you should be trying to maximise your returns on every bet.
If you’re using a BOG bookie then you might not be too badly placed. But the ideal here is shopping around for odds a bit. Especially because outsiders, 3 hours before a race, can have wildly different odds. For some context on this, a race starting in about 3 hours has an outsider at anywhere from 22/1 all the way up to 50/1. Another, 33/1 going as high as 66/1.
This means that if you want to take something like Outsider Profits seriously, you should be shopping around on an odds comparison site. I’m working entirely in hypotheticals in the above examples but doubling your money on bets is huge. As such, it does concern me that Jacob Mercer somewhat takes away the chance for you to do this by running this as he does.
At the end of the day, this is a service that shows bets at 33/1, 40/1, 25/1. The list goes on. But they are all conveniently tied to one bookmaker. About the only thing that I can say is unquestionably good about the bets and tying them together with how Outsider Profits is ran is that at the very least, you are backing bets on an each way basis. This means that there is at least some scope for reasonable returns.
And this is yet another thing that you will want to consider. This is a tipster service that Jacob Mercer boasts has a strike rate of 52%. I cannot tell you how insanely high that is for a service betting at the kinds of odds that this is. Of course, it is incredibly convenient that there isn’t actually anything backing any of this up, outside of a few winning betting slips from Outsider Profits. This number is also a long way from what I have seen so far.
As a final note, I just want to touch on the staking plan. In theory, this should be a simple level staking plan. That is certainly what the “results” suggest. The fact is though that Jacob Mercer also demonstrates that his stakes have increased over the course of the year. In and of itself, that doesn’t have to be a problem. But this is also an element of Outsider Profits that isn’t explained either. Which is quite concerning.
How Does Outsider Profits Work?
Of course, what would go a long way here is if Jacob Mercer actually made any effort to talk about how Outsider Profits works. Unfortunately, he doesn’t. We are told that he has been betting on horses for 20 years, that he’s been making a full time living from the sport for 12 years. He also says that he “helping others during the Covid19 pandemic”. A noble but questionable statement. Especially considering he only bets on UK Racing. Which was notably cancelled during this period.
But honestly, outside of that, we simply aren’t told a single thing about how Outsider Profits works. About the only insight that we actually get is the incredibly obvious fact that you are betting on outsiders. Now, I know why this can have merit. You might know why this can have merit. And for those who don’t, backing longer shots that have value can be a good way of getting one over the bookies long term. But that isn’t what Jacob Mercer says. That is my own experience.
Again. And I cannot stress this enough. He says nothing about how Outsider Profits works. Only that you need to be able to bet on UK horse racing and you are all good. In fact, Jacob Mercer boasts, there are members across the world including Dubai, the United States, and even the Caribbean (all places that conveniently suggest that members have become incredibly wealthy). All of this is incredibly concerning because it creates a situation whereby you are effectively just taking somebody’s word that they can deliver profitable tips.
Now, with some proofing I might be able to get behind this. But there isn’t any proofing either. Which is really ironic to me given that Jacob Mercer outright says “Why just listen to unproven tipsters when it comes to your betting when you can now follow a proven professional horse racing betting expert”. As if simply willing it into the world somehow makes Outsider Profits an actually proven service. Which, and I cannot state enough, it isn’t.
What is the Initial Investment?
If you want to sign up for Outsider Profits, there is just one option available. A seemingly fantastic value one time payment of £47 (plus VAT) for which you get access to Jacob Mercer’s selections for the rest of 2021. This works out at a little under £10 per month which doesn’t seem to be a bad price on the surface of things.
Especially not when you consider that there is also a 30 day money back guarantee in place. This is backed up by the fact that payment for Outsider Profits is handled through Clickbank. They are of course generally very good at ensuring that this kind of thing is honoured. The fact that Jacob Mercer does actually mention it is also one of the few things about this that is unequivocally positive.
What is the Rate of Return?
There are a few numbers that are key to the success of Outsider Profits. The first of these is Jacob Mercer’s claim that you can make up to £1,347 per week. The other key claims are that so far this year, the service has made 478 points of profit and “cleared over £22,500”. Now, putting those cash numbers into context is quite difficult. After all, we’ve already established that part way through the year the stakes were changed.
With that in mind, I do want to focus on that 478 point profit. Because this is a massive number. So big in fact that I think you could easily overlook just how big. For context, if I see a service that gets more than 250 points in a year. They’re having a good year. 300 plus points is incredible. On the rare occasion where a tipster has made over 350 points… well, that’s really special. Jacob Mercer is claiming (without proof) that he has made more than this with Outsider Profits in just 7 months.
Conclusion for Outsider Profits
I don’t know where to begin with Outsider Profits. I’ve tried to find a starting point over and over. But the fact is that there is just a lot here that is,… well, frankly, it’s pretty bloody rubbish. In fact, despite really rattling my brain there isn’t a single positive that I can see here. Jacob Mercer makes so many claims, but the fact is that he doesn’t provide anything of substance to back them up, and that is hugely concerning to me.
One of the most frustrating elements is that it is clear that this sort of evidence should be there. For example, let’s look at that lack of proofing. Jacob Mercer shows off a few winning bets over the last few weeks. This clearly demonstrates that he understands the importance of showing your bets working. On top of this, the fact that we are told that there is a profit of 478 points implies that there is some kind of comprehensive record keeping. So why isn’t this shared?
There are a few things that come to my mind. But the gist of almost all of them, in one fashion or another, is this. Either proofed results don’t actually exist and they’re made up, or they are completely out of line with the results that are claimed for Outsider Profits. Either way, that isn’t something that bodes well for you.
On top of that, I want to talk about some other things that stand out to me. The claimed strike rate for Outsider Profits is 52%. Over half of bets will win according to Jacob Mercer. As somebody who has looked at hundreds, if not thousands, of tipster services I can tell you that this kind of number is incredibly unlikely. It is more than unlikely, in fact. I would go as far as to suggest that it is pretty much impossible. Especially at the odds that you’re betting here.
Aside from that lack of proofing, it isn’t even like Jacob Mercer actually talks about horse racing in a competent way. There is no discussion about how he is finding bets that might allow you to understand how this is achievable. There is no selection process. There is… well, there is pretty much nothing.
I could keep going. Outsider Profits is the kind of thing that I could spend another thousand words picking apart in minute detail. But I see little point. On a very fundamental level, Jacob Mercer has failed to produce any real reasoning as to why you would want to pay anything for his tips. And I haven’t seen an iota of something that would change my mind about that. So, probably not surprisingly, I cannot recommend avoiding Outsider Profits enough.
