Phoenix Lays is a lay betting service which his provided through the tipster stable Bets for Today. Selections come courtesy of the service founder, Charlie Pegg.
Introduction to Phoenix Lays
Lay betting is something of an art and it is one that rather disappointingly, a lot of services seem to struggle to get right. This usually comes down to issues with liability. It is very easy to lay horses at longer odds but when they start to win (and you lose), then you can end up paying out large amounts of money on silly bets and the nature of lay betting means that it can be difficult to recover.
Even a liability of 6.0 means 6 winning bets, just to put you back in the black (when you factor in commission). Enter Phoenix Lays, a service which appears to have a very no nonsense approach to lay betting with some very realistic and consistent results. The question is, are Charlie Pegg’s tips worth your time?
What Does Phoenix Lays Offer?
In terms of what you are getting with Phoenix Lays, it is a rather typical affair. Especially in terms of how it is run. Selections are issued on a near daily basis and are sent out directly via email. Charlie Pegg aims to send these out before 9am each day. One of the things that immediately stands out about Phoenix Lays is that the emails are well detailed and easy to follow.
This is in contrast to a lot of services I look at which seem to want to provide the bare minimum. As is clear from the name (and my introduction, I hope) Phoenix Lays is a lay betting service which means that an account is required with a lay betting service. Betfair appears to be recommended by Charlie Pegg and I think that this would be the preference of most bettors due to the liquidity.
Obviously all bets are advised as lay bets but one of the things that really made Phoenix Lays stand out for me is the liability management. Charlie Pegg is very good at identifying betting opportunities which come with very limited liability. In fact, so far for 2018 out of some 370 bets, less than 10% have had liability in excess of 4.0. This means that when Phoenix Lays does lose, your betting bank cn recover pretty quickly. In fact, the biggest individual loss was £78.40 which to £20 stakes is not bad at all.
As this figure suggests, there is a straight forward level staking plan in place for Phoenix Lays. It is recommended that you start with a 300 point betting bank and stake just 1 point per bet. Whilst this high initial bank may hinder the amount per point, it is important to keep in mind that the goal appears to very clearly be protecting the betting balance.
Truth be told though. the results for Phoenix Lays haven’t ever proven truly catastrophic so if you are willing to absorb a little more risk, you could probably scale this down a little bit.
One area where lay betting systems live or die is the strike rate. Typically, I would expect to see something around the 70-75% mark in order for profits to be reasonable. This number whilst not scientific is based off looking at a lot of services in my time. In the case of Phoenix Lays however, the average strike rate is just 64.43%. Whilst the admittedly doesn’t look great, the lower odds that are involved mean that Phoenix Lays is able to remain quite profitable.
How Does Phoenix Lays Work?
Rather unfortunately, we are not given a lot of information about how Charlie Pegg makes his selections for Phoenix Lays. We are simply told that he “does all the hard work so you don’t have to”. Despite this lack of information, there are some things that we can discern from the proofing. The typical formula for lay betting is to bet often and lose rarely.
As I have said before however, this can prove catastrophic when big losses occur. With Phoenix Lays, I feel like this approach has been somewhat flipped on its head. What I mean by this is that Charlie Pegg appears to be OK with his selections losing but because there are never massive liabilities, these are easily absorbed in the long run.
What is the Initial Investment?
There are two options available or Phoenix Lays. The first of these is a monthly subscription which is priced at just £17 per month. Alternatively, you can sign up for Phoenix Lays on a quarterly basis which is priced at £37 per quarter. Both of these options give you your first month of access for just £1 and come with a full 60 day money back guarantee. This is backed up by Clickbank who handled payment for the service.
What is the Rate of Return?
Since 2016, Phoenix Lays has produced a profit of £6,377. This number in and of itself does not sound like a particularly strong result, especially when you factor in that it is based around £20 stakes, it could very easily be half of that.
Here are the website claims:
Now, I know that all of this sounds particularly negative, but there is one aspect of Phoenix Lays that really does stand out for me. According to Charlie Pegg, the ROI stands at just under 20% which is a very respectable figure.
Conclusion on Phoenix Lays
There are a lot of different tipster services on the market and finding once that stands out is difficult. In no small part, this is because there are so many ways for a service to stand out. Some of them stand out because they have a unique element, whether that is the selection process, the betting strategy that is involved or simply some incredible results. In the case of Phoenix Lays, the results aren’t necessarily outstanding, especially in the short term however context is everything.
Phoenix Lays has been up and running for a number of years and the ROI has been very consistent. At the time of writing, 2018 is looking a little bit worse for wear with the current results for the year standing at just 6.72% however I entirely believe that this number can be recuperated to at least some degree.
One of the most impressive aspects as far as I am concerned is the value for money that is on offer here. At £17 per month, there is no denying that Phoenix Lays is inexpensive. The results are reasonable (based off historic results), and as such, I think that it is very fair to say that there is value to be had. This is a large part of the proverbial battle in my book.
So, would I recommend Phoenix Lays? I am inclined to say that it is worth some serious consideration. Phoenix Lays isn’t a lot of money and if you are willing to think long term, you should do well off the service. Given that there aren’t many decent lay betting services that immediately spring to mind, particularly not at the price that Bets for Today are asking for Phoenix Lays.