Place Profit Formula Review Graham Harper

Place Profit Formula is a new to market horse racing tipster service which is operated by one Graham Harper. He claims to be offering people a special trial of his new place based tipster service.  

Introduction to Place Profit Formula

Win 54.7% of the time. That’s something that I feel like most bettors would definitely be on board with. Winning more often simply means that you can make more money, right? If only things were quite that simple. The actual answer is a lot more nuanced than that. For example, it’s widely considered that if you backed every favourite in horse racing, you’d need a 70% win rate in order to make any profit. So, whilst 54.7% would be good, it isn’t the be all and end all.

So, why is today’s tipster, Graham Harper using that as the lead in for his service? Well, the short answer to this is that Place Profit Formula doesn’t actually back favourites. There is seemingly much more going on here. And ultimately, we’re led to believe that it is profitable. Which is the most important thing, right? If at the end of the month you’ve got a profit in your pocket, it’s all worthwhile. Well, this is an area that I’m just not convinced about.

The fact of the matter is that there are some potentially very good things about Place Profit Formula. And Graham Harper clearly knows this. But simply having some good elements does not a good tipster service make. And in my opinion, this is one of the more nuanced services that I’ve looked at for a while. So, let’s get straight into it and see if it’s actually worth your time.

What Does Place Profit Formula Offer?

In many respects, I believe that what you are getting with Place Profit Formula is one of the single most straight forward tipster services that I’ve ever seen. At least, sort of. There is an element here that, whilst far from unique, does render the wider service as being different to a lot of stuff on the market. But I’ll get to that.

Firstly, I want to talk about the logistics and how Graham Harper manages his service. And… Well, it’s pretty straightforward, funnily enough. As seems to be the case with pretty much every modern independent tipster service, selections for Place Profit Formula are sent directly to subscribers via email.

These are also sent out on a near daily basis. The exception is on Sundays where there are never bets for Place Profit Formula. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing as it allows you to have a day off from betting. This is something that I think is very underestimated when it comes to those who are perhaps newer to betting or are looking to build a second income. So far, so good though.

What isn’t so good however is the times that Graham Harper sends selections out at. They are emailed every morning, but this can sometimes be a little bit later in the AM. That isn’t inherently a problem, but for those who work, it can be a problem getting the best possible value out of their betting.

Which brings me to an element of Place Profit Formula that really can’t be understated and that is the odds that are involved. Now before I can get to that, I need to talk a little bit about place betting. It has arguably the lowest returns on a “per bet basis” in terms of the betting markets available for horse racing. It can also be difficult finding a place to put the bets on outside of betting exchanges.

This opens up two potential problems. Firstly, there is the time that you have to spend finding a bookie that will take your bets (if any). Now sure, you can just jump on Oddschecker and see which bookie are actually accepting place bets (and that is the quickest way to do it). But not all bookies will offer place bets for the same races. Which means when Place Profit Formula recommends 5 bets in a day, that is a fair amount of time.

Secondly, there is the question of trying to maximise the odds you can get. Because squeezing every possible ounce of profit you can from Place Profit Formula is the only way that I can really see this being a genuinely viable option in the long term. Now again, Oddschecker is the obvious solution here. But oftentimes, the best odds come from a betting exchange. This comes with its own host of potential issues, but I’ll get to them a little later on.  

What I do want to come back to is that strike rate. Because whilst there is definitely some reasonable concern about that 54.7%, it’s ultimately still a good number. If Graham Harper is genuinely getting more than 50% wins with place bets, that seems like it can be sustainable. Which is very important. Unfortunately, this number is also based on a small sample size. Less than a month’s worth of results.

The only thing left to discuss really is the staking plan. And Place Profit Formula follows a fortunately, very simple one. Graham Harper advises all bets are backed to level stakes of just 1 point per bet. That isn’t a lot of outlay at all. And combined with that strike rate, it means that in theory there isn’t a lot of potential for a big drawdown.

With that in mind, the 50 points that Graham Harper recommends as a betting bank for Place Profit Formula should more than suffice in my opinion. The fact is that there isn’t a whole lot of reason to question the longest losing streak of 6 bets, nor is there any reason to suspect that you’ll see substantially more losses than this on the bounce.  

How Does Place Profit Formula Work?

Of course the big question whenever you look at something like Place Profit Formula is how exactly Graham Harper is finding selections And this isn’t a question that really has an answer unfortunately. Just about the closest that we come to learning about the workings of the service boils down to the fact that place bets are more likely to come in than a win bet.

And of course that makes perfect sense. Picking a horse to finish in the top 3 is much easier than picking a horse to win. The problem that I have with this kind of rationale and logic is that it makes the assumption that the process for actually selecting your horses has any real basis.

For example, Graham Harper talks about how he used to back to win but became frustrated losing by a neck or being beaten by a 33/1 outsider. But he doesn’t actually tell us how he was finding horses to back to win. Therefore, simply saying that you’ve translated this approach to backing horses to place doesn’t mean anything. Because there still remains that very important question of what “this approach” is.

It isn’t even like there is comprehensive proofing for Place Profit Formula. I can appreciate that Graham Harper has included both winning and losing bets, but you’re looking at two weeks. That is a very long way from a reliable data sample. Something that is actually admitted in the sales material. As such, whilst the results are pretty believable, I wouldn’t put too much weight behind this either.  

What is the Initial Investment?

If you want to sign up to Place Profit Formula, there is just one option that is available. That is a one time payment of £27 (plus VAT) for which you get access to Place Profit Formula through to January (3 months, plus the rest of October “free”). If you sign up at this price, we are told that you will receive all subsequent quarters at this price too.

What is noteworthy for me though is that Graham Harper says “if you’re not in profit from the service you can have your money back, plus you have a 30 day refund guarantee even if you are in profit!”. This latter part is effectively the same money back guarantee that Clickbank offer on all their products. That first part however does make Place Profit Formula somewhat stand out from the crowd. You should keep in mind however that you are entirely reliant on the vendor to back this up.

What is the Rate of Return?

When it comes to the income potential for Place Profit Formula, things are… Well, they’re pretty limited. If I’m completely blunt. At the time of writing, we’re told that Place Profit Formula is on 10.93 points of profit. That’s off 2 effective weeks of betting. And that sounds good. If Graham Harper can continue on that trajectory you’d be looking at about 18 points of profit for the month. A solid result.

The thing is, that is based on Place Profit Formula actually maintaining those levels. You see, here’s the thing. That 16 day period is a best case scenario. Let’s not forget that Graham Harper hasn’t actually provided any form of reasonable proofing in my book. Sure, he’s thorough, but only for 2 weeks. And as sure as eggs is eggs, those will be the best two weeks. As such, I’m somewhat sceptical about these results being carried forward for the future.

Conclusion for Place Profit Formula

I wanted to come into Place Profit Formula liking the service, if I’m honest. Because I feel like in theory, there is quite a lot to like here. But as is so often (and frustratingly) the case, the execution of quite simple principles just makes Place Profit Formula look… Well, it looks like a bit of a liability in my opinion.

First things first, let’s talk about the problems that you can have trying to get place bets on. Whilst it is a very straightforward bet type, it is a bit niche in terms of the bookies that accept them. I know I’ve said that already, but it cannot be stressed enough. This limits some of the options that you have, especially in terms of getting any decent value (a bit of a recurring theme really).

This leads you to betting exchanges. Something that should ultimately count as a positive for Place Profit Formula in my book. After all, betting exchanges mean no account restrictions, it means better odds (generally speaking), it means an arguably more level playing field. But it also comes with its own problems. Namely, betting exchanges can take more work than simply placing a bet with a bookie.

But all of that is a bit academic. Because to come back to one of my single most important points with Place Profit Formula, there is a distinctive lack of evidence. This is something that Graham Harper is clearly aware of. He even mentions it himself. Which begs the question, if a tipster knows that they aren’t providing enough information, why wouldn’t they wait a bit longer? What’s a few extra weeks?  

After all, if you had an approach to betting that you knew worked, what’s another two weeks? And why wouldn’t you want to talk about that approach? I don’t think these are unreasonable questions. Of course, if you were looking to rush a tipster service to market off the back of a spate of good results… Well, that would be perfect timing for Place Profit Formula.

All of this brings me to my biggest concern regarding Place Profit Formula, and that is the profit potential. I cannot stress enough that even if I’m wrong about everything else, those 10 points are a best case scenario. And that limit makes sense, because backing horses to place inherently doesn’t yield big wins.

Generally speaking, you’re looking at less then evens. Which means that a high strike rate is a must. Which is reliant on a decent selection process. Which in turn brings us full circle to that lack of information and evidence. The unfortunate truth is that despite the efforts that Graham Harper seems to have put in to appearing genuine, I can’t see Place Profit Formula as being anything other than heavily flawed.

Even moving away from the operations side, I have questions about the authenticity of Place Profit Formula. As a few examples, the strong encouragement to stay on past that refund period that Clickbank offer. In this case, it is Graham Harper saying if you aren’t in profit you can claim a refund. But all that you’re doing there is relying on his word that he will honour this (or even be around to do so).

We are also told that you’re locking in a low price for the long term. If Graham Harper is so dedicated to this, why isn’t the subscription a reoccurring one rather than a one time payment? If Place Profit Formula is still going to be there, and still be profitable in 3 months time, why wouldn’t you want to subscribe? Especially because you can cancel.

From a genuine tipster stable, I could possibly overlook these things. But the unfortunate fact is that I’ve seen this kind of set up so many times before. And none of those tipster services are still around. Now that isn’t to say that Place Profit Formula will go the same way, but I see this as a very risky investment. One that I don’t believe can really generate returns to warrant that risk.

And it is because of that that I can’t really bring myself to recommend Place Profit Formula. Which is a shame, because in theory, this should be a good service. There should be a lot to like. But that ever present lack of… Well, anything that I’d call substantial, from Graham Harper. That you’re making a purchase based off just 2 weeks of results. It all makes this a complete no go in my book.

 

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From: Simon Roberts