Power Place Tips is a new to market horse racing tipster service which is operated by Michael Ellerby. He claims to be able to make a substantial profit through low risk place betting.
Introduction on Power Place Tips
It is widely held that based purely on probability, the two least risky ways to make money through betting on horse racing are lay betting, and betting on horses to place. The more possible outcomes that allow you to profit, the more likely you are to win. The more likely you are to win, the more likely you are to make money. Boom, I’m done.
We can wrap this article up now and go down the pub to spend all our winnings we make from place betting and laying horses. Except, this rarely actually works out to be the case for a large number of reasons. In spite of the fact that these approaches are littered with their own kind of risk, Michael Ellery claims that Power Place Tips will turn your betting fortunes around. There are some interesting claims made, so I want to dive straight into this one.
What Does Power Place Tips Offer?
I want to start by opening and talking about the bets. Power Place Tips is a place betting service, so Michael Ellery simply advises place bets. Job done, right? To some degree, however all of the selections that are advised are actually accumulators. Whilst you are indeed backing horses to place in a race, you will be doing so on doubles and trebles.
Naturally, these come at higher odds than backing horses to place individually, however you will still only typically see quite middling examples. The volume of these bets make Power Place Tips quite manageable with most days having just two or three bets issued.
Logistically, Power Place Tips works pretty much as you would expect. One deviation is that Michael Ellery doesn’t actually advise any bets during the weekend. This isn’t something that is ever looked at and seems like a bit of a curiosity to me as Saturday and Sunday are much busier days and as such, you would expect more opportunities to make money.
Selections are issued directly via email to Power Place Tips subscribers and you are told simply that you can “use most bookies to place your bets”. This is a point that I want to return to a little later on. What I will say is that Oddschecker is absolutely your best friend with place betting as squeezing every ounce of profit out of your bets matters.
In terms of the stakes, Michael Ellery has a staking plan of sorts in place for Power Place Tips, however this doesn’t seem to be down to any kind of design. Effectively, all bets are advised to be backed to 1 point level stakes on all bets.
I haven’t seen any mention of what kind of betting bank you would need from Michael Ellery, however I would anticipate needing around 150 points personally. This is down to the fact that I can foresee quite considerable losing streaks with Power Place Tips, despite Michael Ellery’s claims.
Finally, we come to a significant topic when it comes to place betting and that is the strike rate for Power Place Tips. Michael Ellery makes in a very bold statement in one of the headlines that reads as follows:
“Making one small tweak to my betting saw my strike rate boost from 22% to a staggering 88%”.
That strike rate of 88% seems like a huge number, and even seems believable when you start to read about how Michael Ellery describes place betting. This is very misleading though as we are actually told that ton average 47% of bets won, with this larger number being made up winning selections within the accumulators that make up Power Place Tips. This deception is quite concerning to me, especially when put into the frame with a number of other points.
How Does Power Place Tips Work?
There are two key ideas that run through the ideals of Power Place Tips. The first one is that place betting allows you to win more often than when you are backing horses to win. I will give Michael Ellery that. It is a mathematical certainty that the more winning outcomes there are, the more likely you are to win. However, place betting does come with massively reduced odds which brings me to the next idea.
By building your place bets into smaller accumulators, you are able to offset the lower odds. As an example of this, I looked at 3 races and the odds that the favourite would place, then the odds on a treble. This meant that instead of getting odds of 5/4, 4/11 and 11/10 on individual horses, you get odds of 6.44 (an example taken from Betfair today). This also seems fair enough.
The final element worth touching on is the selection process. This isn’t something that Michael Ellery discusses in any level of detail, however he does describe his core philosophy of being that you don’t pick a horse you think will place, but the horse you think will win. How he finds these horses that will “win” is something that unfortunately, isn’t discussed.
What is the Initial Investment?
There are two different options that are available if you wanted to subscribe to Power Place Tips. The first of these, and the main one that is advertised is a full 12 months option. This is priced at £97 (plus VAT) with a claimed “real” value of £260.
Alternatively, you can sign up to Power Place Tips for a 60 day trial which is priced at £40 (plus VAT). This length of subscription is significant as both options come with a full 60 day money back guarantee as the service is sold through the Clickbank platform. It is also noteworthy that Michael Ellery implores you to give Power Place Tips the full 60 days.
What is the Rate of Return?
Michael Ellery says that in just 13 days, he was able to produce a profit of £3,107.55 using the same methods he uses with Power Place Tips. Given that this has supposedly been attained to level stakes of £20, this makes for a points profit of 155.37 points in less than 2 weeks. These numbers are backed up by a number of screenshots, supposedly showing Michael Ellery’s winning bets. I am somewhat sceptical about the validity of these though.
Conclusion to the Power Place Tips service
There is so much that can be said about Power Place Tips I can say with certainty that it is rather difficult to know where to begin. I will credit Michael Ellery and say that a lot of what he says about Power Place Tips makes a certain kind of sense.
In fact, as a piece of marketing, and ignoring the product that is being sold for a moment, I would say that it is a master class. Unfortunately, all of this appears to be nought more than a simple veneer to paint the picture of a successful tipster service, as the numerous problems that I want to talk about will show.
First of all, I want to come back to place betting and the logistics. Yes, there are some bookmakers who will allow you to back a horse to place, but these are a very small minority.
Meanwhile, the sales material for Power Place Tips makes it sound that you should be fine, but I don’t believe this will be the case at all. With the rate that bookies close down winning accounts for apparently nothing, how long do you believe you can realistically get away with winning consistently before you are restricted or closed yourself?
Secondly, I want to talk about the way that numbers are manipulated throughout the sales material. The most notable example is the way that Michael Ellery talks about 88% of his bets winning, despite the fact that only 44% of them actually pay out.
Whilst on this topic, I want to stress that I’m not even sold on these numbers. There is very little evidence that Michael Ellery is able to come close to maintaining these numbers in the longer term. It is very clear to me that the results that are cited for Power Place Tips for that 13 day are not just a very small data sample, but are more likely than not cherry picked.
The nail in the coffin for me though is not so much the pricing, but how adamant that Michael Ellery is that you should trial Power Place Tips for 60 days. The thought does not casually occur to me that this is exactly how long Clickbank offer their money back guarantee.
After 60 days, there isn’t a whole lot that you can do. Now, Michael Ellery makes a number of references to offering a 60 day money back guarantee in the sales material, and I suppose that he could well extend the refund period past this. Equally, this could be somebody who is specifically trying to keep people on board just long enough that they don’t have to offer refunds.
With all of this in mind, I see very little reason to recommend Power Place Tips.
Not that it would sway my opinion, but it isn’t even like it is particularly cheap. The fact of the matter is that there are a lot of problems here. I strongly believe that despite Michael Ellery’s claims, the benefits that come with place betting are not just negated in turning them into accumulators.
Honestly, I don’t believe that the methodology is as sound as it first appears. I also don’t believe that this is a genuine service. This is one that I really can’t recommend avoiding enough.