Premier League 4 is a new to market sports betting tipster service which is operated by one Adam Lowey. He claims that his selections have produced a very substantial profit to date through seemingly low risk football bets.
Introduction to Premier League 4
It is always interesting to see a new tipster service that offers a new way of looking at football betting. An area where, if I’m really honest, traditionally has woeful value available. This means that when something lands on my desk claims to have found a way to maximise value, has strong profits, and seemingly carries very little risk… Well, I wouldn’t be very good at my job if my interests weren’t piqued at least a little bit. Because I would hate to write something good off, solely on the grounds that it seems too good to be true.
Which brings me to Premier League 4. A tipster service that, at a glance, seems like it should be too good to be true. And yet, I will give full credit to Adam Lowney and say that the fundamental approach that he is taking here is something that I have seen work in other sports. And if I’m honest, the sales material makes some bold claims that, if delivered on, will make for one of the most impressive football tipster services I have ever seen.
Probably not surprisingly, key to all of this is actually delivering on those claimed results. Something that most tipsters end up struggling with. Which is an interesting thing really. Because it only raises questions (at least to me) as to why one would make these claims of Premier League 4 if you can’t back them up. Of course, I have some ideas and thoughts on why Adam Lowney has done that. But I will pick this up a little later… For now, let’s get into it.
What Does Premier League 4 Offer?
As interesting as a lot of what Premier League 4 does is, there are a lot of elements of this service that are decidedly quite simple and standard. This is something that I often feel comes off as a harsh criticism of a service, but that just isn’t the case. The fact is that I always welcome seeing a tipster who has a solid approach to tipping.
Logistically, this seems to be the case with Premier League 4. The service is based exclusively on betting over the weekends with an apparent focus on English football. I say this based off the incredibly limited evidence that Adam Lowney provides and what I have seen of this. In theory, none of this has to be a bad thing.
Whilst we’re sticking with the logistics of the service, Adam Lowney’s management is… Well, it’s probably what you’d expect from a service of this nature if I’m honest. When you sign up, you are asked for an email address. All selections are then sent to that with details of the bet you should be placing for the weekend.
Rather disappointingly, there isn’t a massive amount of information contained within these emails. Don’t get me wrong, you won’t necessarily struggle too much dealing with Premier League 4, but it does somewhat complicate matters. Especially because of the issues that there seems to be in terms of getting actually reasonable odds.
This is a bit of a two fold thing. Firstly, I don’t believe that you necessarily have a huge amount of time to seek out the best odds. Something that is only exasperated by the fact that you can’t simply calculate the odds on a Yankee bet through odds comparison sites (or at least, the ones I use). This makes it very difficult to see where you are getting the most out of Premier League 4.
I suppose that really leads nicely to the bets themselves, and as I just mentioned. You are dealing exclusively with Yankee bets. For those who aren’t familiar with this bet type, it is a somewhat exotic accumulator that is made up of 6 doubles, 4 trebles, and a 4 fold accumulator (which is precisely why it can make it difficult using an odds comparison site. You have to get the odds on all those bets individually).
Now, the beauty of this kind of bet is that when you win, you can win big. Especially when you are using the betting markets that Adam Lowney uses. Because he doesn’t just bet on a team to win. Instead, there is also the addition of goals markets as well. These tend to be either both teams to score, or for a team to win to nil.
When it comes to staking, Yankee bets are an interesting thing. Because on the one hand, I feel like there is an argument to be made that you are dealing with one bet. As such, when I look at something like Premier League 4, I see Adam Lowney betting to 1 point of £110. However, you often see that with something like this it is mixed up a bit.
The idea being that saying you have achieved a result to £10 bets makes it sound so much better. Even though the actual amount that you are staking isn’t different. When I am looking at Premier League 4, I will be working on my assumption of £110 being one bet. I would also recommend a pretty decent betting bank (something that Adam Lowney doesn’t actually talk about). This mostly boils down to the fact that I don’t really believe the claimed results and strike rate.
On the topic of. We are told by Adam Lowney that the strike comes in at about 70%. Specifically, we are told that 30% of bets advised through Premier League 4 will see no profit. 40% will see a small profit, and the bulk comes from 30% of bets that are big winners. This all sounds incredibly impressive, but the fact of the matter is that it is also entirely unverified.
How Does Premier League 4 Work?
When it comes to looking at something like Premier League 4 and how it works, there are two different elements in play. The first of these is the bet type. This is something that it is very easy to look at. Adam Lowney makes it perfectly clear that he believes that by adding complications to those straight win bets, he is improving the value. And that by further bringing them into an acca, he is adding even more value.
Personally, I am not at all convinced by this and find the argument to be quite flawed. Value is not just about simply increasing the your odds. It is about finding bets that have been under valued by bookmakers. Backing a bet at 100/1 isn’t value unless the actual chance of it happening is significantly lower than these odds.
Which brings me to the second element of how something like Premier League 4 works. That is the selection process. It is incredibly easy to talk about picking winners 70% of the time, identifying value, etc. But Adam Lowney doesn’t actually do anything to describe how he is finding these bets. We are simply supposed to be beholden to the fact that he just is. That is always something that I find to be disconcerting.
Building on this, it isn’t even like we’re getting any sort of evidence backing any of these claims up. There is incredibly limited evidence which mostly comes in the way of a highly questionable screenshot of a Betfair betting account. We are also shown 2 profitable Yankee bets that have supposedly landed. Even if you take these at face value, it is far from a comprehensive sample of data.
What is the Initial Investment?
If you want to sign up to Premier League 4, there is only one option that is available. This is Adam Lowney asking a £33 (plus VAT) one time payment. This provides you with access to selections for the rest of the season. From here, Adam Lowney talks about how the intention is to sign people up for the upcoming 2021/22 season. There is however no mention of what kind of costs will be involved with this.
Rather interestingly, and of considerable note, is the fact that Adam Lowney fails to mention that there is a full 30 day money back guarantee in place. This is something that is actually backed by Clickbank who process the payment and is pretty much standard on a lot of their products, Premier League 4 included. This discrepancy is rather concerning in my eyes and points to deeper issues with this.
What is the Rate of Return?
The headlining claim for Premier League 4 is a very simple one. Adam Lowney says that simply selecting 4 games per week has made his members over £18,000 points of profit this season. Specifically, we are shown a screenshot of a betting bank that allegedly has £19,237.23 in it. Elsewhere, we are shown a few winning bets with profit of £147.50 and £1,755 profit. We are also told that there has been a profit of £642 per bet placed, and that for every £1 staked there has been over £5.80 profit.
These all look like incredibly impressive numbers. But the blunt truth is that they lack context. Adam Lowney provides almost no evidence. As such, I absolutely cast doubt on these results for Premier League 4. The same applies to the testimonials which are all entirely unsubstantiated as well.
Conclusion for Premier League 4
It is incredibly easy to look at something like Premier League 4 and immediately get wrapped up in those results. Because whilst they are ultimately quite modest, they also look incredibly impressive. Who wouldn’t like to take home a profit of £5.80 for every £1 that you stake? And of course, that all scales up incredibly nicely. Because £10 staked means £58 back.
And it doesn’t surprise me in the slightest that it is all presented in this fashion. Because if you didn’t necessarily know what to look for you could easily be taken in by these kinds of claims. The fact of the matter is that it is only through having experience with services of this nature that I would look to call these numbers into question.
Something that I am pleased I have the wherewithal to do really. Because whilst that is, by a comfortable margin, the biggest red flag that exists with Premier League 4, it is only one of many. As a great example of this, you only have to look at the exclusion of the 30 day money back guarantee. This could be for a very genuine reason, but equally, it could just be someone conveniently choosing not to mention this in order to avoid refunds down the line.
Again, this might sound like a bit of a random point to reach, but let’s take a look at the structure of Premier League 4 for a moment. One bet per week that has a relatively high chance of producing very little in the way of a result. If you were particularly cynical, which I am here, I don’t think it’s a big leap to say that this could also be that Adam Lowney is trying to simply get people to hang on past that refund period that he doesn’t tell them about.
Of course, I am not saying that this is definitively going to be the case. There could be very innocent reasons for all of these things. But I don’t believe that Adam Lowney provides a significant amount of evidence that actually suggests this. Especially not when you take the time to look at the back end elements of Premier League 4.
You see, the vendor who is actually selling the service is one that is well known to me. And it isn’t for the best reasons, if I’m honest. They have put out a lot of tipster services that make similar claims. Unfortunately, none of those are actually available any longer. Mostly because they have closed relatively soon after that refund period has elapsed. For some reason…
And with all that said and out there, I don’t think that I would look to recommend Premier League 4. The fact of the matter is that there isn’t really much reason that I can see to. There is arguably some merit to the profits, but they don’t really count for much without anything backing up that they are attainable. And that is distinctly missing. So even with the relatively low costs involved, I just don’t see it being worth the money.