Profit With Paul is a new to market horse racing tipster service that comes courtesy of tipster Paul Gregg. He claims that his approach to betting is not only selective, but immensely profitable too.at is the product about?
Introduction to Profit With Paul
I want to start this review by talking about the fact that there isn’t technically a right or a wrong way to find winning bets. This is something I think it is really important for you to keep in mind. You see, most tipsters will acknowledge this fact. At least, most genuine tipsters will. There are things that work for some that don’t for others. And that is fair enough. One of the most profitable long term tipster services I have ever looked at is one that I definitely wouldn’t recommend. It takes an extreme approach. But it definitely works.
The reason that I am talking about all of this is because the tipster behind today’s review subject, Profit With Paul, makes some very bold claims in this regard. Claims that I will definitely be refuting. Let’s just be very clear about that from the get go. But just because I disagree with Paul Gregg’s views on betting, does that mean that he is running a bad tipster service? Well, all of that depends on how you choose to look at things. There is little mistaking the fact that this is definitely an interesting one.
Of course, as is often the case with this sort of thing, the real most important element is the profit potential. You see, Paul Gregg makes some strong claims about the income potential of his service. He also talks a very big game about Profit With Paul being a tipster service that wins on the regular. And if you believe his results, then that is somewhat the case. But I really do have some serious questions about the long term sustainability of the service. Something that is ultimately very pertinent. So, let’s get into it.
What Does Profit With Paul Offer?
One of the things that I do rather like about Profit With Paul is that as a tipster service, it is very easy to break down what exactly it is that you are getting yourself into. This is mostly down to the fact that Paul Gregg has put out an incredibly straightforward and simple tipster service. Something that I don’t mean to have any negative connotations.
The fact of the matter is that I would even say that he uses this as a bit of a selling point for Profit With Paul. This simplicity is something that is peppered through the entire service, so I don’t want to dwell too much on it here. But I think it is a very important thing to factor in when you’re considering the bigger picture.
So, first things first, let’s talk about the way that Paul Gregg manages his service. The header for Profit With Paul refers to it as a “VERY SELECTIVE HORSE RACING SERVICE”. To some extent, I can see how you might make an argument for this. Paul Gregg certainly isn’t betting every day, but nor is this the kind of borderline anal selectiveness I have seen from other selective tipsters. The kind that only bet a few times a month.
Where I think the selectivity element of Profit With Paul really comes into play is in the overall volume of bets that you are placing. Every month is probably advising a bet every other day as an average. But the truth of the matter is that Paul Gregg can vary significantly. April, for example, saw just 11 bets advised. By the same token, May had 20. There is little rhyme or reason to any of this.
Sticking with the management side of things, let’s talk about exactly how Paul Gregg runs Profit With Paul. He is a firm believer that late information is a good thing. That you can make a more informed decision the closer to an event. Whilst there may be some truth to this, it doesn’t help you out much if you’re a punter following his advice.
Unfortunately, bets tend to come quite late in the day. If I’m really frank, sometimes problematically so. You have to be in a position to get on Paul Gregg’s advice ASAP. Especially if you want to get the odds that he advises on a horse. This is a welcome addition to the norm, but it is worth noting that by the time you come to bet, the advice for Profit With Paul has likely changed.
Normally, I would talk about the advantages of an odds comparison site with most tipster services. With Profit With Paul, forget about it. If you are in a position to do so, of course it is worthwhile. But the best advice for something like this is to simply have a BOG bookie in place. Ay least that way, you will maximise any win as much as you reasonably can.
All of this is very important because Profit With Paul is a service that tends to deal with some very low odds, despite using straight win bets. Most of the horses that Paul Gregg says he has advised rarely have odds that get above very middling numbers. The highest example he provides is a 6/1 affair. But even this is an extreme for him.
If there is one area where Profit With Paul does become a touch more “complicated” it is the stakes. It isn’t so much that a complex plan is in place, but Paul Gregg pushes for you to put quite a lot on each of his bets. Using his own approximations (a topic I will be coming to shortly), effectively staking 4.2 points per bet. All without advice on a betting bank of course.
The supposed icing on the cake of Profit With Paul is ultimately how much you will win. Paul Gregg claims that over the first 5 months of 2022, he averaged a strike rate of 52.38%. That isn’t a bad number at all, however, I am a little sceptical given the proofing and how it is all presented. But I’ll pick this up down the line.
How Does Profit With Paul Work?
Ok, how Profit With Paul works. This is the biggie here. Because Paul Gregg has a hell of a lot to say on the topic. At least, kind of. What he instead likes to do is talk about how all of the other tipsters have got it wrong. About how so many of the factors that are (demonstrably proven elsewhere) leveraged by other tipsters are all BS and don’t really matter. In the meantime, his approach definitely does.
So, let’s explore this a bit. Obviously, his main point is that he is a selective bettor. Profit With Paul isn’t about using “SPRAY & PRAY” tactics saying “20% strike rate. I think I’d shoot myself!”. He also espouses the notion that any tipster that is betting the night before a race doesn’t know what they’re doing and is blatantly unfit to be tipping. Because how can a tipster possibly have any idea of what they’re looking at if they don’t have the most up to date information.
All of this is combined in a very firm attack on the idea of value betting. Effectively, Paul Gregg says that if a horse doesn’t win, it doesn’t matter what odds you are backing it at. It is bad value. This is a notion that is demonstrably untrue. In actual fact, going back to my introduction, the most profitable tipster service I have ever seen leans on a very exaggerated version of this. So they must be doing some thing that Profit With Paul isn’t.
What we aren’t told, despite all of this posturing, is much of what Paul Gregg actually is doing. We are told that Profit With Paul is selective. That it takes advantage of all of the information… and that’s about it. It is a long way from substantial. It is also a massive problem in the grand scheme of things. Effectively, a lot of what you are doing is just taking his word that he is able to pick those winners. There is proofing of sorts, but it is incredibly limited.
What is the Initial Investment?
One of the things that is really interesting about Profit With Paul is the pricing structure that Paul Gregg takes. With his service, he is effectively charging you by the bet. When you sign up to the service, you pay out £49 plus VAT. For this, you get access to 50 bets. Given the previous months that are “proofed”, you are looking at between 2 and 3 months worth of selections.
Something that Paul Gregg very conveniently fails to mention is the fact that Profit With Paul comes with a full 30 day money back guarantee. This is backed up by the fact that he is selling his service through Clickbank. They offer this on almost all of their products and as such, you shouldn’t have any problems claiming it if required.
What is the Rate of Return?
Over the last 5 months, Paul Gregg claims that Profit With Paul has made some 84 points of profit. That all sounds very reasonable and believable. I do however find myself somewhat doubting these numbers. The fact is that there simply isn’t all that much evidence backing these claims up. Whilst there is proofing of sorts, it is very much without context.
All that we get from Paul Gregg are a list of bets that he has supposedly placed that all very conveniently won. In the meantime, you simply have to take his word about the bets that lost. That is problematic in and of itself, but the real issue for me is the sample size. Even if you take it all at face value, 5 months isn’t a long time to be going off given the likely length of time you will be with Profit With Paul.
Conclusion for Profit With Paul
It’s always a bit difficult for me with something like Profit With Paul because I don’t entirely disagree with Paul Gregg. A lot of what he says has some merit. But I also think that there are a lot of things that he either fundamentally misunderstands, or chooses not to because they don’t suit his narrative. Neither of these options bodes particularly well for the future.
I have been a long time advocate of more selective betting. I agree with Paul Gregg on the idea that quality is better than quantity. But by the same token, I know full well that some high volume services can work well. I certainly wouldn’t dismiss it out of hand if there was any sort of basis for the approach.
The bit that I really take umbrage with Profit With Paul is when Paul Gregg talks about value. Look, value isn’t an instant measure of success. But any tipster who will dismiss the concept entirely isn’t one that I want to follow. The truth of the matter is that finding value bets is widely regarded as one of the few ways to consistently beat the bookie.
It isn’t even like Profit With Paul is outperforming value betting. If I’m really honest, I can think of a number of tipsters that use that approach that are making more than Paul Gregg. But this isn’t about a disagreement of philosophy. It is genuine concern. If somebody is going to be so up themselves that they entirely dismiss a proven method of profiting, I strongly doubt their own ability to profit.
Because let’s not forget that little fact that Paul Gregg isn’t actually telling us how he is finding his bets. Everything is taking his word for it. With some genuine insight into why his approach is better, I might put some more weight behind his words. But Profit With Paul seems to be based on this fallacy that knowing more is better. Which is true, if prices didn’t change.
The truth of the matter is that prices do change though. You get those longer odds because you know less. But it isn’t like most genuine value based bettors are betting off nothing. There are a host of historical statistics that can inform a decision. Paul Gregg is very flawed in his view and that makes me wonder how flawed Profit With Paul is. Again, keeping in mind the very modest profits.
On top of that, there are things that strike me as a bit sketchy, if I’m honest. The fact that Paul Gregg doesn’t actually mention the money back guarantee whilst having a pricing structure in place that almost guarantees he will still have your money after 30 days… It’s a bit suspect is all I’m saying. And it is a far cry from those genuine services that I have looked at before.
Bringing it all together, I’m just not very sold on Profit With Paul. Paul Gregg does little to establish himself as a credible tipster in my opinion. Much of his sales pitch hinges on what other people are doing wrong. Except, they aren’t even things that are wrong. Combine that with low profits and some slightly sketchy practices (not to mention a very demanding service really), and this is just something that I don’t think I’d really look to recommend.
