Racing Formula is a relatively new to market horse racing tipster service that is operated by Michael Bell and managed by Bet Social. Supposedly, the service has seen some very strong results.
Introduction to Racing Formula
In the betting world, a little bit of time can go a very long way. I know, that is a bit of an enigmatic statement. What exactly does it mean? Well, something that I always advise is exercising caution when you’re looking at results. Here’s the thing, probably not surprisingly tipster services are typically released after a good run of form. That makes sense from a marketing perspective. There is nothing better than being able to advertise substantial profits. The problem however is that they are almost always cherry picked.
As such, giving a service just a little bit of time to see how it actually performs is really quite important. It’s been a while since I’ve seen a service that so clearly illustrates this as Racing Formula. Bet Social make some very impressive claims. Michael Bell’s initial performance is all very much in line with those results. It’s all good looking stuff and make no mistake. But it would seem that maintaining these results is ultimately quite difficult. In actual fact, this may be the most extreme example I’ve seen.
You see, the recent run of form for Racing Formula… well, it isn’t great. In fact, at the time of writing, Michael Bell could literally have not done worse. This is demonstrated clearly in Bet Social’s proofing. But what exactly are you likely to get from this going forward? The fact of the matter is that it’s a difficult thing to know what the future holds. As such, you are rather forced here to make a decision about how much risk you are willing to take on. And if I’m really honest, it is a very interesting question to ask yourself.
What Does Racing Formula Offer?
There is a lot that is polarising with Racing Formula. But one thing that I think that you can say definitively and without qualification is that this is an incredibly straightforward service. Everything about what Michael Bell is doing is very simple. This isn’t something that has to be a bad thing. Far from it. In principle, simple is good.
But how exactly does this manifest itself? Well, first things first, this is a pretty basic near daily tipster service. There are the odd days where there are no selections, but most of what Michael Bell is doing here is based around providing at least one selection most days. The vast majority of these are just single selection bets. Very occasionally, Racing Formula has more. On one occasion, there was actually 6 bets advised in a day, but they are definitely outliers.
So, you’re signing up to Racing Formula for a low volume and seemingly selective tipster service. As is typical for pretty much all modern services, selections are sent out directly via email. The details included with these is somewhat basic. Don’t get me wrong, you get enough that you can get bets placed and whatnot, but Michael Bell isn’t really giving out as much information as I’d like to see.
With all of that covered, let’s talk about bets. One of the things that I like about Racing Formula is that Michael Bell isn’t afraid to take advantage of both win and each way bets. At least, historically. More recently, the focus has shifted to win bets only, and I think that is something that has had a drastic impact on those more recent run of results (something I will talk about a lot).
This is a move that is really quite surprising to me. Especially because Racing Formula is a service that inherently leans into longer odds betting. Depending on how you are betting (BOG, SP, and BSP) the lowest average odds are 8.24. Through BOG it is 10.24. Those are really quite significant numbers to be backing to win a race.
Ultimately, this is more than adequately reflected in my opinion when you look at the strike rate. When Racing Formula has been performing at its best, this has been in excess of 30%. Since Michael Bell shifted focus to win bets, this has seen a dramatic downturn with November currently facing a strike rate of 0%. It literally can’t get any worse. And that isn’t a good thing at all.
Especially when you factor in the stakes. You see, one of the things that Bet Social’s proofing shows is that whilst Racing Formula is a level staking plan. It is actually 5 points per bet. Whilst this has produced some quite impressive runs historically, it has a dramatic effect on how things are going when you’re losing.
For example, referring back to Michael Bell’s 0% strike rate, there is a loss posted of 35 points at the time of writing. However you want to dress it up, that is bloody significant. But to some degree, I can see why this approach is taken with Racing Formula. It isn’t unreasonable per se. It just adds a huge amount of risk that is somewhat conveniently skipped over.
Now, I will concede that a theoretically considerable betting bank does allow for this kind of drawdown. After all, we’re told that a recommended bank of £2,000 is advised to get started. Especially if you want to achieve the kind of results that Bet Social claim you can expect to see.
How Does Racing Formula Work?
The core premise of Racing Formula isn’t something that is new to me. Michael Bell is clearly identifying horses at long odds. Realistically, one would anticipate that there is some element of value to be had here. Especially when you consider that the sales material makes a lot of references to long term approach. But the long and short of it is this. Big odds mean big winners.
What I will say though is that this isn’t something that is explicitly stated. I am only making an educated guess based off what I have seen before. The fact is that between Michael Bell and Bet Social we aren’t really given a huge amount of insight into what Racing Formula is about. Really, you are looking at vague platitudes like Racing Formula being based on “a number of angles that could help with my bets, to keep the bets to a manageable amount, but to also have a decent mix of medium and bigger odds winners”.
It certainly sounds like there is something going on there. But the truth is that there isn’t really any explanation on it. Michael Bell doesn’t talk about his selection process, Bet Social don’t talk about what the service entails. You really do just come into this pretty blind, and that isn’t ideal. Especially because I feel like there is a very big leap of faith with Racing Formula.
The only thing that really counts for much of anything is the proofing. This gives you a reasonable idea of what you can expect from Racing Formula, and Bet Social are very good at keeping this up to date. This insight is ultimately really valuable, especially when you look at the more recent run of results that have been encountered.
What is the Initial Investment?
There are a lot of different options if you want to subscribe to Racing Formula. These vary wildly in terms of the value for money that is available and the outlay that you will have. Probably the most appealing initial offer is a ten day trial that Michael Bell and Bet Social offer. This is priced at just £5 after which the subscription moves over to a monthly subscription.
This is priced at £47 per month. Honestly, that is at the top end of what I’d expect to pay for a tipster service making it ultimately quite expensive. If you want more value through Racing Formula, you can sign up on a quarterly subscription. This is £48 for your first quarter after which Michael Bell and Bet Social put the price up to £96 per quarter.
The best value option is a 6 monthly subscription for Racing Formula. This is priced at £97 for your first six months. Once that has elapsed, the cost goes up quite significantly bringing the cost up to £147 every 6 months. Whilst that is still ultimately a decent saving on the monthly subscription costs, it is still not an inconsiderable amount that is being asked.
Of note is the fact that Michael Bell and Bet Social don’t offer any sort of money back guarantee. As such, if you are going to take advantage of the added value that these longer subscriptions provide, you don’t have a lot of recourse. Which is really quite important.
What is the Rate of Return?
Bet Social claim in the headline for Racing Formula that “A VERY POWERFUL BETTING METHOD THAT HAS TURNED A £2,000.00 BANK INTO £6278.82 IN JUST 3 MONTHS!”. This is hypothetically something that is possible. Especially if you factor in that when they were marketing this, Michael Bell had only been proofing for a few months. In fact, between June and August a profit of 296.63 points was generated, ultimately peaking at 380 points in October.
This is really important to keep in mind because at the time of writing this, Racing Formula is down over 100 points on that. Whilst this still means a theoretically reasonable profit of slightly under 280 points, all of that is dependent on you following Michael Bell’s advice from day one. Which you can’t have, because it was still being proofed to Bet Social then.
Adding to all of this is the fact that all of these results are ultimately inflated because of the fact that the stakes are all to 5 points per bet. As such, you can easily put Racing Formula into a better context where Michael Bell has produced a profit of 56 points to 1 point stakes.
Conclusion for Racing Formula
Services like Racing Formula are exactly why I always recommend exercising caution, giving a service a bit of time, and ensuring that there is decent context. All this applies doubly so when they launch off the back of a suspiciously strong run of results. Not that I believe that this is a particularly strong run of results. Whilst Bet Social paint a strong picture, the fact is that most of this stems from the 5 point stakes.
The fact of the matter is that those first few months really show a tipster service that is smashing it in terms of results. If you take Bet Social’s proofing on face value, Michael Bell made more in 3 months than most services would make in a year. If you didn’t look hard at any of it, you’d be onto a complete winner.
Here we are less than a few months later though and Racing Formula is down quite substantially. Now, I want to be very clear about something. I can appreciate the fact that because this is a low volume service, there is some call for staking more than you might with a tipster. After all, if you aren’t betting frequently then you need to maximise your returns potential. I just wish that there was some more transparency about this.
But all of that is secondary to the current results. I can appreciate that Racing Formula isn’t going to win often. Here’s the thing though, the last big winner that Michael Bell had was a winner at 9/1 back at the start of October. Since then there have been a few winners, but these have all been at odds of lower than 5/1. And with the drawdown and bad run that has been happening. Over the last month and a bit, those wins haven’t made a dent in the losses.
Unfortunately, I feel like that is about where you have to start drawing the bottom line with Racing Formula. Whilst there may have been some merit to what Michael Bell is doing when this launched, that seems to be gone. This could be down to dropping bets on an each way basis, it could be a change in selection process. But it’s not like we’re given the information to understand what is going on behind the scenes.
When you combine all of that with the costs involved, I don’t necessarily see much about Racing Formula that is worth recommending. The blunt fact of the matter is that you are paying a not inconsiderable premium for Michael Bell’s tips. Tips that have consistently lost money over the last few months. For my money, I just feel like there are better and smarter investments. Whilst this may turn around in the future, here and now it just isn’t great.
