Rule of 3’s Review Simon Johnson

Rule of 3’s is a new to market horse racing tipster service which is operated by one Simon Johnson. He claims to offer low risk tips that carry huge profit potential.

Introduction to Rule of 3’s

I have a lot of interests outside of betting, but one of the more obscure ones is marketing. It is definitely a bit niche, but I find the psychology of it all fascinating. But here’s the thing, it is also something that has helped me a lot in this line of work. Quite a lot really. Understanding how things are sold to people helps me to see through some of the more… questionable services that I see. And there are inevitably certain patterns that you see in relation to this and when I see them, I tend to look at things a little deeper.

Now, you are probably asking, what has this got to do with anything? Well, today’s review subject is a service called Rule of 3’s. And it is all based around the eponymous “Rule of 3’s”. Simon Johnson makes certain claims about how things come together, and it all happens in a way that seems to make sense. After all, it’s a rule, right? I’ll be coming back to this, because I believe it is pertinent. But the most important factor at play here is the money that you can supposedly make. Because we are told that there are some potentially huge winners.

Putting all of my cards on the table, the results that Simon Johnson demonstrates for Rule of 3’s are immense, ad if you can see these kinds of bets landing with any regularity (which you apparently can based off the limited evidence), then you are on to a definite winner here. Really though, I do have questions about these results. Being blunt, they seem a bit too good to be true. So, lets get into it and see what exactly you are getting into here.

What Does Rule of 3’s Offer?

Despite an impressive sounding title, and a marketing approach by Simon Johnson that does a lot to make his service sound perhaps a little more than it actually is, this is a very straightforward service with a very straightforward premise. Not that this has to be an inherently bad thing of course. Simplicity can often be a huge advantage in betting.

There are a few key concepts that surround Rule of 3’s that I want to touch on, but I do want to start by talking about the logistics of the service. Something that in my mind, is key to everything. First things first, Simon Johnson only bets Monday to Friday. Something that he says is down to having 3 young kids (part of a very recurring theme). There are also supposedly occasional no bet days, although I am yet to see one of these.

As is the norm for… well, pretty much any modern tipster service, selections are sent directly to subscribers via email. However, something that is worth noting is that Simon Johnson does send out selections the evening before racing. Something that is definitely one of the few definite positives of Rule of 3’s.

In no small part, this is because you can take advantage of an odds comparison site to extract the maximum possible value out of the bets. You see, whilst I have mentioned something that is unequivocally positive, there are a lot of negatives. One of these is that when Simon Johnson sends out selections you are pretty much on your own with a distinctive lack of information. Especially in terms of odds. All we are told is that he personally places bets through Betfair in order to keep a record of them.

Now, let’s talk about why getting the best possible odds is so important. There are a few reasons for this. Firstly, you are ultimately dealing with that single bet per day. As such, when bets win, you really want to ensure that you’re maximising those wins. Because there isn’t any volume to necessarily maintain your betting bank.

And these are very long shot bets. Because ultimately, a part of that “Rule of 3’s” is bringing three different horses together into a treble bet. Something that definitely allows for big wins, but as I will explore, has a drastic impact on the striker rate.

Now, sticking with talk of the odds, I want to look at them in a bit more detail. Obviously, you end up getting those big odds on the trebles. For some context on just how big we’re talking, the biggest win shows odds of some 640/1. That is a massive number and a long way from what you might expect from most tipsters.

To get those huge odds, the odds also have to be pretty high on the individual horses too. The incredibly limited evidence Simon Johnson provides shows that most of the winning bets all had odds of 3/1 and above. This includes Rule of 3’s having a good few in double digits. Individually, those bets aren’t a huge deal, but when you are bringing them together and all 3 horses need to win… Well, it has an impact.

As you might expect, all of this means an incredibly low strike rate. Just 7.7% according to my calculations. But that doesn’t really matter, in the grand scheme of things because you aren’t following Rule of 3’s to win often, you’re following it to score those jackpot wins.

Finally, I just want to touch on the stakes. Because you might think that winning just 7.7% of the time would mean that you end up with significant drawdowns. And in theory, you do. However, one of the big selling points of Rule of 3’s is Simon Johnson’s claim that because you’re only betting £3 on each bet, you’re ultimately not really risking a lot. A logic that I really do find myself calling into question.

How Does Rule of 3’s Work?

As you might expect from a tipster service called Rule of 3’s, Simon Johnson makes a big thing about pushing the number three. This is of course where the afore mentioned staking plan comes from. And it also appears to be why you’re betting on trebles. To circle things back to my introduction, as a piece of marketing, it is something that makes sense. After all, all those threes must be there for something. Right?

Well, the truth of the matter is that there isn’t really any explanation as to why you’re betting on trebles. Simon Johnson makes the claim that it maximises profits when they win, but that’s about it. There is also a throwaway statement that you don’t have to worry about “placing 7, 8, 9 or more bets per day”. This is all well and good, but again, it doesn’t actually mention what edge this gives Rule of 3’s.

The real issue that I have with Rule of 3’s though is that there isn’t actually any insight into what the selection process is. We’re simply told that selections are limited to “only “best picks” that [Simon Johnson] think will win regardless of the odds”. Sure, on paper, that sounds reasonable enough. But really that is the bare minimum. Any tipster who isn’t sending out their best tips is just doing something wrong. But more than that, it doesn’t actually give us any insight into the selection process.

As a final aside, it is incredibly frustrating and of note that there is no proofing for Rule of 3’s. All that we are really given is Simon Johnson providing nine betting slips that show claimed wins (although you should note that all of these are historic with no real up to date results). Given the previous services I have seen that have provided this as “evidence”, I am rather sceptical here too.

What is the Initial Investment?

There are two options available if you want to sign up to Rule of 3’s. The first of these is a monthly subscription which is priced at £25 (plus VAT), supposedly a reduction on the “actual” value of £30. There is much better value available if you sign up for the next 4 months. This is priced at £50 (again, plus VAT), a much more drastic reduction on the “actual value” of £120.

Now, both of these are advertised as “risk free”. However, there is only a 30 day money back guarantee in place for Rule of 3’s (something that to Simon Johnson’s credit he does actually mention). As you might expect, this is backed up by Clickbank through whom payment is made. But it strikes me as peculiar that the 4 month option is also billed as being risk free when the refund period doesn’t extend to that length of time.  

What is the Rate of Return?

Across 116 days, Simon Johnson claims that the bets for Rule of 3’s made a profit of £5,358.75. That doesn’t sound too unreasonable really. It would put you on course for around £15,000 per year. That is a hell of a lot of money to have as a second income, but it isn’t necessarily outside of the realm of possibility either right?

What I want to do now is put that result into some context for you. Because what Simon Johnson is claiming here is that Rule of 3’s has made a profit of 1,786.25 points in about 4 months. For context on just how incredible this number is, a tipster who is performing particularly well might see annual profits of between 320 and 360 points.

This means that Rule of 3’s has supposedly performed 5 times better than this top end in 4 months, than a top tipster could do in a year. With some comprehensive proofing, this may have some argument. But unfortunately, this evidence is rather conspicuous in its absence in my mind.  

Conclusion for Rule of 3’s

One of the reasons I was so keen to talk about the marketing in the introduction to this is because with something like Rule of 3’s, it is such a key part of it. Now, the marketing that Simon Johnson uses strikes a very specific tone, and that is what I want to start by talking about. Because honestly, there is a lot to unpack here.

Firstly, there is the fact that everything that pertains to Rule of 3’s is based around the number 3. I’ll be really frank here and say that there is very little that I really see adding value. Staking £3 is an arbitrary number, betting on trebles seems to have very little actually rational grounding, even the coincidence that Simon Johnson has 3 kids. It all serves the purpose to make it seem like there is something higher going on here. It categorically isn’t.

Then there are statements like the fact that this isn’t a get rich quick scheme. Whilst £5,500 isn’t necessarily “rich”, this fits the definition in my book. Don’t forget that this is sold as a low risk betting service that has returns that are absolutely huge. Just because the stakes keep the numbers low, the core premise remains the same.

Now, all of this is pretty arbitrary. B

ecause what is Rule of 3’s like as a service? Well, the reason I want to establish the tone the marketing takes is because unfortunately, there is almost no substance to this that I can actually see. Simon Johnson has put out a service that is riddled with flaws and that concerns me greatly. Especially because of some questionable behaviour in terms of certain bits of phrasing that makes promises that cannot be delivered on.

So, first things first, I don’t believe that you will actually make any real money with Rule of 3’s. That is a very important point to ascertain from the get go. I have looked at a lot of services in my time and I can tell you now that those that are based around jackpot betting (that is betting that pursues a long term goal of one very big win over smaller more consistent wins) can be problematic.

Let’s not forget that if you take Simon Johnson at face value entirely, you’re looking at a strike rate of just 7%. But I don’t entirely believe that you can even do this. The kinds of bets that are being advised here simply don’t win 7% of the time. I am yet to see any genuine tipster get close to this, and as such, I’m not convinced that a tipster who has simply sat down and decided to develop a system can.

A system, that I would hasten to add, that has no real basis in… Well, anything. It is incredibly difficult to ignore the fact that Simon Johnson doesn’t actually say anything about what his approach to Rule of 3’s includes. The ridiculous notion that simply saying you’re issuing your best selections really isn’t good enough in my mind.

Combine all of that with the vague and demonstrably untrue claim that it is all sold as “Risk Free” (something that anybody who knows anything about betting will tell you is almost impossible), and that is just a huge no go for me. I really cannot recommend enough giving Rule of 3’s a wide berth, because I just cannot see a world which it actually works as claimed. At least, not a single thing I have seen suggests that this may be the case.  

 

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From: Simon Roberts