The Bet Scientist Review Sean Roche

The Bet Scientist is a new to market horse racing tipster service which his being offered by Sean Roche that claims some very substantial returns. The service is managed by the Premium Sports Tipster stable.  

Introduction to The Bet Scientist

Every now and then, something comes along that is just… mindbogglingly good. Now it isn’t typical of me to start by talking about profits in detail, but we’re taking 1,754.37 points in just 5 months of betting. We’re talking strike rates that mean that you are almost never going to lose. Honestly, I can say with my hand on my heart that looking at those numbers, I don’t believe I have seen a service that is so initially impressive.

And that brings me to The Bet Scientist. Because this is a service that according to creator Sean Roche, and Premium Sports Tipster’s proofing, is just that. It is an incredibly promising offering, however, I have been doing this for long enough to question things that look too good to be true. And that is exactly what is happening here, and lo and behold, when you put The Bet Scientist into context… Well, those results may not necessarily be as impressive as they initially sound.

None the less, I will not dispute that the set up that Sean Roche has in place here makes for some very good reading. But I personally think that it is very important to keep in mind that first and foremost, sales pages are just that. They are pages designed to sell a product. With that in mind, The Bet Scientist really does have to be able to deliver on those claims. Can it though? Let’s find out.

What Does The Bet Scientist Offer?

It is honestly quite difficult to know where to start when you’re talking about The Bet Scientist. There is just so much to discuss and break down. And as I’ve mentioned it is incredibly important to ensure that it is all kept in the correct context.

Probably the best place to start in my opinion is the logistical elements. This is because realistically, it is the one thing about this that doesn’t require context. It just is what it is. And the fact that Premium Sports Tipster are involved does go some way to ensuring that everything is well managed. They have been involved with a lot of services, and I think it shows.

Now in the case of The Bet Scientist, you are dealing with a near daily tipster service. I say near daily as there are the odd missed days. These are definitely the exception rather than the rule though. And as you would probably expect from any modern tipster service, selections are sent out directly via email.

Something that is very good is that Sean Roche sends out the selections the evening before racing begins. This gives you plenty of time to actually get your bets placed. It also means that you are able to obtain the best possible odds as well. Something that you definitely should be striving for with The Bet Scientist, however, realistically you will have to use a betting exchange. As such, you are at the mercy of the markets.

Now this is exchange betting and trying to get the best odds can be a difficult thing. For most people, simply setting up a betting bot will be the best way of managing this to place bets just before the off. This should work at least to some degree as Premium Sports Tipster’s proofing of Sean Roche’s selections are all to BSP. There may be better value if you can get bets matched earlier, but it’s a bit of a crap-shoot. But you do want those odds as high as possible.

This all brings me to the bets, and the staking plan. And that is where that context becomes so important. Before I get to that though, I want to talk a little bit about the volume of bets, because this is another factor of The Bet Scientist that you really need to be considering.

By and large, this isn’t an excessively busy service. Most days will have just 2 or 3 selections advised. However, some days will have up to 10 bets. And that is a very high number to follow along with. Especially given the stakes.

And at this point, it is impossible to avoid this topic. You see, every selections that Sean Roche finds is effectively two bets. There is a win bet to be placed, and there is a place bet to be placed (hence the need for a betting exchange). So far, so good right? But why aren’t they each way bets?

Which is where the staking plan comes in. And honestly, it is a bloody scary thing. You see, it is advised that you back every bet advised through The Bet Scientist to 10 points. 2 points are placed on a bet to win, and the remaining 8 points are bet on the horse to place. And we are told that this “80/20 bet” is key to the success.

Unfortunately, what it also means is that when Sean Roche has those higher volume days, you are potentially staking 100 points in a day. That is a full betting bank for most services. Now, Sean Roche recommends starting with a £200 betting bank and investing £10 per bet. I take this to mean a 200 points betting bank and £1 per point, but ultimately, you have just a 20 bet draw-down.

From here, it is recommended that you leverage a compounding plan in order to maximise your profit whilst theoretically, keeping your risk to a minimum. However this does still only mean having that 20 bet draw-down, despite the high number of points. And in theory, leaves you 2 bad days away from losing it all.

Now, Sean Roche and Premium Sports Tipster claim a strike rate for The Bet Scientist of 93%. So in theory, this shouldn’t be a problem. However, that strike rate is somewhat misleading as it applies to just the first few months. The average strike rate at the time of writing is some 85% which is still strong, but it is also still a touch misleading.  Put simply, it isn’t necessarily representative of the results you can expect in the here and now.

In actual fact, since horse racing returned, the strike rate for June was much closer to 60%. That is still a pretty good figure, however, for a bet to win, it simply has to have placed. And that still doesn’t necessarily mean a profit. Which again, cycles back to that important point about keeping The Bet Scientist in context.  

How Does The Bet Scientist Work?

When it comes to something like The Bet Scientist, there are two clear elements in terms of “how the service works”. The first thing is how selections are identified, and there are two aspects to this according to Premium Sports Tipster. We are told that Sean Roche has a scientific background. Personally, I’d have liked to have seen more information regarding this.

We are also told that Sean Roche finds his selections based on dynamic form and speed ratings. These are both things that I have seen employed with success elsewhere with moderate success. It might not be a huge amount of insight, but it also suggests that there is at least some kind of underpinning to The Bet Scientist.

The second element is slightly more straight forward and that is the staking plan. In many respects, the theory behind it makes sense. Sean Roche says that by splitting your staking 80/20, you are better positioned to get consistent wins. And he then goes on to say that this is “better for your confidence and bank balance” than one off wins with large losing streaks. And I am inclined to agree with this.

Unfortunately, what isn’t ever really addressed when it comes to The Bet Scientist is what happens if you hit a losing streak. Whilst that seems unlikely based off the results claimed, especially the strike rate, there are just no guarantees. And in fact, recently there have been losing streaks of seven bets demonstrated over just a few days.

What is the Initial Investment?

There are three different options available if you want to sign up to The Bet Scientist. And they vary wildly in terms of the value that is available. The lowest outlay comes from signing up on a “monthly” basis (which is actually charged every 28 days) that is priced at £40.

Alternatively, you can sign up to The Bet Scientist on a quarterly plan. This is typically priced at £90 per quarter, however, your first quarter is priced at just £54. By far and away the best value comes from a 6 month plan. This is priced at £120 every 6 months, however, your first 6 months costs just £90.

Payment for all of these options is handled directly via PayPal. It is also worth noting that pst and Sean Roche don’t make any mention of any refund policy or money back guarantee. As such, I wouldn’t come into The Bet Scientist expecting this to be an option.

What is the Rate of Return?

At the time of writing this, The Bet Scientist sits on 1,704.04 points of profit. That is an immense number. However, you also really have to keep it in context. Now first an foremost, there is the point that all bets are advised to 10 point stakes. This means to level 1 point stakes, you’ be at 170.4 points. Still a respectable amount, but not nearly as impressive.

As well as this, the overall ROI for The Bet Scientist stands at 53.25%. This provides a much broader picture of the kind of results that you can expect. At least, sort of. Because once again, context is very important when you are looking at something like The Bet Scientist. The first 4 months saw a lowest ROI of 43.64% and a peak of 115.56%. June however hit just 34.63% whilst July is currently well into negative numbers (although I believe this can be turned around).  

Conclusion for The Bet Scientist

There’s a lot to consider with The Bet Scientist, but I want to start by addressing the risk involved with this service. Because frankly, I strongly believe that this is something that is rather frustratingly glossed over by Sean Roche and Premium Sports Tipster.

At the peak of The Bet Scientist’s profits to date, the service stood at 1,812.24 points. In just 19 bets, that has dropped by almost 120 points. For those of you who have been paying attention that is more than half of your betting bank. And this run has included four placed bets too. Two simply didn’t make a profit despite coming in, and those that did make a profit were all but wiped out when the next bet lost.

And this really is the crux of the problems that I have with The Bet Scientist. You see, Sean Roche makes it very clear that the core of his process is that 80/20 split in terms of your stakes. And that is all well and good in theory. Except for the small issue of when it doesn’t work. Especially with those 10 point stakes.

Now here’s the thing I can appreciate somebody trying to do something a bit different. But what always concerns me with tipster services that have a novel approach (like The Bet Scientist) is when they don’t talk about all aspects of said approach. Simply because you could very easily buy into this based off the claimed results (which are all based around those exceptional first 4 months) and not even think about losing more than half your betting bank in a few days.

I think the real problem that I have with The Bet Scientist is that it works very well on paper, but Sean Roche has also demonstrated that it doesn’t necessarily work out that way in practice. June wasn’t nearly as prolific as earlier months (which conveniently were all pre-launch I’d hasten to add)  and July, whilst we are only just getting started, is showing a marked loss. The thing is, these aren’t going to be anomalous results. This kind of run will happen again.

On top of that, there are a few other things that bother me about The Bet Scientist. Firstly, Premium Sports Tipster’s pricing is just downright frustrating. £40 for a “monthly” subscription that isn’t even a month? No thank you. This means committing to longer periods if you actually want to try Sean Roche’s tips and get any semblance of value out of it. Which, as we’ve seen, can be costly in the long term.

And with all of that in mind, I don’t think that I would recommend The Bet Scientist as it is now. You see, the recent run of results suggests that something is off. Whether or not that is simply that horse racing has only recently returned and is still finding its feet, establishing form, etc. All of that remains to be seen.

The fact is that maybe Sean Roche can start to turn those results around once everything is a little more established. And if he does, then this is a strong potential winner. However you want to dress it up, 4 months whereby the lowest return was 178.92 points is bloody good. But it The Bet Scientist has to get back there again.

So, this may be worth keeping half an eye on. But here and now, what I’m seeing is a tipster service that doesn’t just carry significant risk, but actively overlooks this. That suggests some modicum of ignorance. If the numbers can get back where they are, it might be worth a punt. But frankly, I’d be surprised if they ever do get back there.

 

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From: Simon Roberts