The Honest Tipster is the newest service to be launched by the Betfan group. The service is operated by a tipster known simply as Paul and claims to be able to make a strong profit to BSP through horse racing betting.
Introduction to The Honest Tipster
I want to start by saying that I think that there is a lot that Betfan do right before I begin here. This is because what I am going to say next may sound like I am attacking them and their service. It isn’t, I am simply stating some opinions that I think are quite reasonable.
One upon a time, Betfan’s domain was tipsters which would almost always produce a strong profit to BOG. Combine this with a staking plan of 5 points per bet, and there was a new release every other week promising hundreds of points of profit.
Unfortunately, these weren’t sustainable and inevitably, the were closed. The Honest Tipster breaks the mould in at least one regard here and that is that the service is geared towards BSP. This opens a lot of doors for people and with some interesting results, I am quite keen to look at The Honest Tipster.
What Does The Honest Tipster Offer?
When it comes to how things are run, Betfan are nothing if not consistent. This means that the logistics of The Honest Tipster throw up no surprises. It is a daily horse racing tipster service with selections issued via email. They are also made available via a special member’s area on the Betfan website.
The content here is good and The Honest Tipster delivers everything in a very professional manner, as you would expect from a Betfan managed service.
Things do start to become more interesting when you look at how Paul bets. There is a massive amount of variety to The Honest Tipster and the betting strategy. The majority of your bets will be each way, however there are also a large number of single bets.
Where things really become interesting however is in the accumulators. The Honest Tipster never goes big with these, but looking at the proofing, it feels like there are patents, doubles or (occasionally) trebles every other day. Not literally, per se, but they are frequent enough. It is also worth noting that given that the results are off the back of BSP, a Betfair account is worthwhile here.
One of the things that I mentioned in my introduction was Betfan’s staking plan I also mentioned that The Honest Tipster breaks the mould in one regard, and that wasn’t the stakes.
All single bets have been advised to 5 points, as have a lot of each way bets (although this seems to actually be 2.5 points each way). Some each way bets are advised to just 2 points. The patents meanwhile come in at a total of 7 points, meaning 1 point staked on each bet. The Honest Tipster can be high volume so this can add up.
So how often can you expect to win with The Honest Tipster? The strike rate stands at 26.59%. This is a relatively respectable figure when you look at the odds that The Honest Tipster’s selections end up closing at (a topic that I want to come back to a little later on).
Honestly though, there is a lot to consider here for a number of reasons. Namely surrounding the types of bets that win.
How Does The Honest Tipster Work?
Honestly, there isn’t really a whole lot of information that pertains to how Paul actually finds his selections. He says that he has been involved in horse racing for over three decades and that he was introduced by a friend with a further 35 years of knowledge.
He also says that he has been a full time professional for several years and has supposedly tried to launch a number of different tipster services before The Honest Tipster.
This is all well and good, but it very disappointingly provides us with no real insight into the process. As a punter, I always feel that you should have some understanding of what you are getting into and that applies doubly so with The Honest Tipster as a lot of the results gained are somewhat anomalous.
The only arguable saving grace is that Paul has come from Betfan’s Tipster Planet scheme which does proof thoroughly (if somewhat conveniently).
What is the Initial Investment?
There are two price points available through Betfan if you want to subscribe to The Honest Tipster. The first of these is £40 (plus VAT) every 28 days. This means that you will pay this 13 times over the course of the year.
Alternatively, you can sign up to The Honest Tipster for £90 for a 90 day subscription. It is important to keep in mind that none of these options come with any real money back guarantee. Betfan say that they review all refund requests, however these are not typically offered.
What is the Rate of Return?
At the time of writing, The Honest Tipster has achieved a profit of 741.48 points since the 1st of June. This means less than 3 months and there is simply no ignoring that this is a phenomenal result on the face of things. Unfortunately, it is not representative of a wider picture.
The Honest Tipster has peaked at a profit of 915 points, however of this, 808.59 points came from an each way bet that closed at 307.91 and is proofed to 5 points each way.
Conclusion on The Honest Tipster
Betfan have been very shrewd in rushing The Honest Tipster to market and make no mistake about that. If I were in their position, I would almost definitely do the same thing. In one fell swoop, Paul has made as much off one bet as some tipster services might make in 2 years.
Some people will have no doubt done phenomenally off that bet. There is no taking this away from The Honest Tipster and it is something that should very reasonably be celebrated and applauded.
With that having been said, I also think that it is very important to put it in a wider context. Since that high point of 915 points for example, The Honest Tipster has lost 173 points.
That is a betting bank and then some. Of course, if you are off the back of a massive win, you might be willing to absorb that loss but if you have just signed up on the back of the marketing, then you are going to be very broke very quickly. In fact, as well as the loss mentioned, you also have subs on top of that, so it starts to add up.
Does all of this mean that I think that The Honest Tipster is bad? The short answer is not necessarily. What I think The Honest Tipster appears to be setting itself up for is the extraordinary. Betting to BSP means that there are some massive wins that are just waiting to happen, and with a bit of luck, there is no reason why they won’t.
This is where the problem really starts to mount up in my book though. I don’t think 300/1 bets come in without a little bit of luck. Factor in that we aren’t privy to understanding how Paul is finding his bets and you could be throwing darts at a board.
Some time in the future, I think it is entirely possible that The Honest Tipster will hit another winner. And I think that once again, a few people who have stuck with it will make a small fortune. For most people though, this isn’t a service that it is practical to follow.
Even before the big win, The Honest Tipster was tracking at 60 points of profit, but this is based off big stakes again. With this in mind, I am going to say that I can’t really recommend The Honest Tipster. Not because I think it’s necessarily a terrible service, but I just don’t think it’s practical.
