The Italia Job Review – Best System Bets Nemo Ferrante

The Italia Job is a sports betting tipster service which is operated by Nemo Ferrante and provided through Best System Bets. As the name of the service somewhat implies, it is based around betting on Italian football, more specifically, Serie A.

Introduction to The Italia Job

When it comes to football betting there are a lot of different options that are on the market. Like… So many. I have literally reviewed hundreds of football tipster services in my time and very few of them have really performed particularly well. As such, it is rather difficult to ignore a tipster service that crops up claiming that you can make £1,309 per week. That’s a lot of money. And furthermore, you can achieve this by betting on Serie A football, an area that is a little bit niche.

Enter Nemo Ferrante and his tipster service, The Italia Job. This is a service that has a hell of a lot to offer people. High strike rate? Check. Consistent profit? Check. Low subscription costs? Check. Well, I think that’s most of the boxes ticked off isn’t? So, this is a must have service that is guaranteed to make you a strong profit, right?  Well, unfortunately, I don’t think that I’m necessarily entirely convinced by the case that Best System Bets make here.

The fact of the matter is that whilst Nemo Ferrante and Best System Bets do provide at least some evidence backing up his claims for The Italia Job, it is a long way from what I would consider to be conclusive. In fact, I could even be inclined to say that I find some of it a bit questionable. But with so much seemingly on offer, is it worth it? Well, let’s get straight into it and see whether or not it actually is.  

What Does The Italia Job Offer?

As far as tipster services go, I am actually inclined to say that The Italia Job is a bit interesting. Not necessarily in the way that it is managed. Everything there is pretty much what you’d expect it to be (a topic that I will come to later on). But the betting approach that Nemo Ferrante takes is a little bit different to what I’ve seen recently.

So, to establish everything you have to talk about how Nemo Ferrante operates The Italia Job. Despite being referred to as a daily tipster service in the sales material, this is actually closer to a weekly affair. And that is exactly what you would expect from a football tipster service. With games generally stacking up around the weekend, that is when I would want to see bets being placed.

And each week, you will receive exactly 6 selections from Nemo Ferrante, plus a “Bonus Accumulator”. How much of a bonus this actually is is massively questionable. But the important fact is that it is included. This means that on a weekly basis, you can expect to place a variety of bets on individual matches, whilst those accas carry some potential to boost your profits quite substantially.

Now, we have ascertained that you get an accumulator each week, but what other kind of bets can you expect? Well, Nemo Ferrante covers a variety of markets. Seemingly to ensure that he’s getting the best value. This can include correct scores, halftime/fulltime, and simply backing teams to win or draw. What is impressive about this is the array of odds that you can get with The Italia Job.

Typically speaking, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that football ends up being pretty low odd. Using an actual example that Nemo Ferrante provides, backing Napoli to beat Parma gives you less than evens at 8/13. And yet, within the limited evidence provided, Nemo Ferrante shows frequent bets at much higher odds.

In actual fact, Nemo Ferrante and Best System Bets claim that the average odds are between 1/1 and 5/1. Honestly, this range is a bit ridiculous as an “average” as that gives a lot of wiggle room, but that higher number does demonstrate the potential here. Even if that does seem to exclusively come from the accumulators.

But all of this is by no means a bad thing. Especially when you consider that all of his bets seem to have been placed through a single bookmaker. As such, there remains a possibility that if you were to use an odds comparison site you could squeeze even more value out of The Italia Job (something that I think you really have to do with any football tipster service).

Just swinging back to how The Italia Job works, this is where things are very much what you would expect. Selections are sent out directly via email, they will typically land with subscribers in the morning, and they contain about as much information as you’d expect to need to get your bets placed. They are ultimately just a bit basic.

This only really leaves the numbers side of things to touch on in terms of the core service. Firstly, there is the staking plan. This seems to be a very straight forward level affair with Nemo Ferrante staking £20 per bet in his proofing (a number that becomes very important as I will discuss later). Unfortunately, there is no information that I’ve seen pertaining to a betting bank.

Secondly, there is the strike rate. We are told that this is “high” and at a claimed 54.3%, it appears to be. This number is however from a screenshot that doesn’t explicitly state that it is The Italia Job, and Nemo Ferrante seems to have taken it some time last year. Meanwhile, the more recent bets that Best System Bets cite as evidence show a strike rate that is much higher than this number.

Finally, I want to address something a bit left field. You see, when you sign up to The Italia Job, you aren’t just getting the one service. Because Nemo Ferrante and Best System Bets have teamed up to also bring a few “additional” tipping packages as well. I will be skimming over these, but I want to really nail home the fact that in my mind, these are really just a part of the main service.   

These are “The Italia Job Golissimo” which provide additional tips on margin markets withing Italian football. Think over/under, scorecasts, corners, etc. Again, we are told that Nemo Ferrante exploits these “at a highly successful rate”. There is also “The Italia Job Coppa Crazy”. This is a cup based element and provides tips “for the Italian Cup, TIM Cup and Champions League games”.

How Does The Italia Job Work?

Nemo Ferrante says that he has been involved in Italian football betting for a very long time. This includes that period where there was a lot of match fixing going on. And during this time, he says, he was able to make a lot of money through “an elite network of people that were getting the inside scoop on fixed games”. During this time, we are also told that he had been gathering sports data for Serie A and Serie B.

Over almost 15 years, we are told that used this data for “comparing and analysing the stats, number crunching and formula testing”. With the outcome being that Italian football is supposedly as predictable as it has ever been. The astute amongst you will notice that this doesn’t actually tell you anything about how The Italia Job works. Which is a touch concerning.

Especially because rather disconcertingly, that is about as close to being told about how The Italia Job works as it comes. Frustratingly, Best System Bets even include a section on the sales page that says “HERE IS HOW THIS SERVICE WORKS” only to show you a few select betting slips that have come in as winners.

This ties into yet another problem that I have with The Italia Job which is that ever present lack of proofing. At best, we see 3 weeks of results for Nemo Ferrante. That simply isn’t a data sample size that you can reliably use. Furthermore, whilst there are screenshots of some proofing, there is no real way of even knowing if they are actually for The Italia Job or simply taken from somewhere else. As such, you are really just taking Best System Bets at face value that everything they claim here is true.  

What is the Initial Investment?

If you want to sign up to The Italia Job, Best System Bets have 3 different options available. The cheapest of these is a quarterly subscription which is priced at £14.95 (plus VAT). Alternatively, you can sign up for a full season for just £32.95 (again, plus VAT). That works out at about 9 months of selections. The best value comes from a lifetime subscription which costs just £64.95 (plus VAT), although that is of course also the highest outlay.

What is noteworthy however is that whilst Nemo Ferrante does mention a money back guarantee in the sales material for The Italia Job, this isn’t ever expanded on. Something that I would take to mean it simply isn’t available (which would be in line with my experience with Best System Bets).  Whilst the relatively low price may offset this a little, it is something that is definitely a concern worth highlighting.

What is the Rate of Return?

At the start of this, I talked about how Nemo Ferrante says that you can make £1,309 per week betting on Italian football. This is interesting to me because with his own selections, even a 100% strike rate week, to £20 stakes, made £200.13. That is about as best case as you can probably expect, which means that in order to hit that number, you’d need to be betting at about £130 per bet.

Elsewhere in the sales material, we are told that you can expect to see an ROI of 43%. This is again an entirely unsubstantiated number that isn’t really backed up anywhere in terms of that extremely limited evidence. The thing is, if you take the numbers presented as fact, then the ROI should be much higher. If you look at the “proofing” screenshots… Well, I still don’t see how this adds up. As such, I’m really quite sceptical of this number.  

Conclusion for The Italia Job

On the surface of things, I really don’t think that The Italia Job is a bad option. Nemo Ferrante does a very good job of selling the service and those results look really good. The only problem with this is that it doesn’t really stand up to a lot of scrutiny, which leads me nicely into the single biggest problem that I have with it all.

You see, in my in my opinion, you have three options when it comes to “provenance” for a tipster service. First things first, you can display knowledge. This generally involves talking about what betting entails, it involves talking about the sport, it involves showing that you actually know what you are talking about. Nemo Ferrante arguably just about achieves this with The Italia Job. If you squint.

Secondly, you can talk about your strategy. This definitely ties into the first point, but it is slightly different in my eyes. Because talking about the strategy moves beyond general knowledge. Allowing users to understand what exactly you’re doing, how it will impact their betting, and the pros and cons of this are also important. This is something Nemo Ferrante doesn’t do with The Italia Job.

The final method of provenance in my eyes is proofing and evidence. This really isn’t on show here at all. The fact that Nemo Ferrante provides just a few examples of winning bets is a long way from good enough in my opinion. I’d generally expect to see a comprehensive list of bets for this to be acceptable on its own, as well as a large enough sample of datum that you can reach reasonable conclusions from it.

Now I’ll admit, that is a little bit subjective, and you might or might not agree with me there. But it’s hard to ignore the fact that Nemo Ferrante and Best System Bets don’t really do any of this, and what little there is exists in such relatively small amounts that it’s almost negligible. Which really presents a bit of a problem for me.

If there is one mitigating factor in all of this, it is the cost. What Best System Bets are asking for The Italia Job really isn’t a lot. At all. I mean, effectively, you’re talking about £6 a month which in terms of a tipster service is next to nothing. Which leads me to a bit of a cop out in terms of my conclusion…

Here’s the thing. Would I personally recommend giving The Italia Job a go? Based off my experience in this field, my more prudent approach to betting, and the fact that there is very little in the way of firm evidence. I really wouldn’t. Because here’s the thing. I don’t believe that Nemo Ferrante will actually deliver close to the claims that are made. At least, not on any kind of regular basis, which is a bit of a problem.

With that said, if I’m objective, I can see how somebody might want to give this “the old college try”. The fact is that £15 is the price of a decent bottle of wine. It just isn’t a lot of money to pay for a tipster service. And for that, you can get 3 months of selections. Plenty of time to bet along on paper, and ultimately, see if this is a good fit for you. If it doesn’t, you’ve had a laugh and it isn’t a massive write off.

So ultimately, whether this is for you depends entirely on how willing you are to throw money at the wall, as it were. Like I say, for me, this would be a no go. But for plenty of people out there, I can see how they might see this might be worth a punt. Because even betting at a few quid a go, you would hope that you’d at least make your money back over 3 months.

 

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