The Longshot Punter is a relatively new horse racing tipster service which is operated by WAP Bets. The actual selections come from a tipster named Mick, who also runs their Early Morning Punter service.
Introduction to The Longshot Punter
I think it’s probably fair to say that, by a significant margin, the most important thing when it comes to a tipster service is how much money it makes. As I always say, the bottom line is the bottom line. What this means is that when something lands on my desk that talks about making hundreds of points of profit in just a few months, it is hard not to pay some attention to it. Especially when this is doubled down on by highlighting how the tipster has made in excess of 1,500 points on another service of theirs.
All of this is of course simply framing for today’s subject, The Longshot Punter. A brand new service from a tipster known simply as Mick, a tipster with a strong pedigree with WAP Bets (and don’t think they’ll let you forget it. A hefty portion of the sales material is dedicated to his Early Morning Punter service). But none of that really matters in the grand scheme of things. Sure, it makes for a nice bit of slick marketing, but the real star of the show here are the profits that are available. Because Mick has made a lot of money in a very short period of time.
So, you might think, this is a shoe in as far as tipster services go, right? If the bottom line is the bottom line, and The Longshot Punter has made a lot of money… Well, surely, it’s worth a look? I wish this were the case. As I will explore, whilst I think what Mick has achieved here is commendable, there is also a bit of smoke and mirrors going on too. The results that WAP Bets claim are 100% above board and accurate. I don’t doubt that. But I think that there is a little bit of stretching of the truth. Does that change anything? Let’s dive right in and see.
What Does The Longshot Punter Offer?
The Longshot Punter is actually quite an interesting tipster service, as far as these things go. And there are a good few reasons for this. It is a long way from the typical “long shot” tipster service that you see which simply gives you a bunch of long priced outsiders the night before and tells you to crack on getting value. In actual fact, what WAP Bets and Mick are doing is pretty much the polar opposite,
First things first, let’s talk about the logistical elements of the service. Because this is the first thing that stands out to me as being a bit unique about The Longshot Punter. Especially given its position as a long shot service. Because WAP Bets actually deliver tips quite late in the day. Specifically, we are told that “They will arrive in your inbox early afternoon but also in plenty of time before the selection is due to run”.
This is something that definitely won’t suit everybody. In actual fact, I am of the opinion that it rather counts against The Longshot Punter. Whilst some people won’t have a problem dropping everything to get bets placed, there will be some for whom this simply isn’t an option. This makes the timing of selections a massive factor when you’re considering this.
Now, where WAP Bets should be commended is on their approach to getting selections out. As you would expect from pretty much any modern tipster, these are typically sent out via email. However, selections are also issued through an app called Telegram.
As well as advertising itself as being the fastest messaging app available, it has one other simple, but substantial, advantage in my eyes. It’s much harder to miss out on a tip when your phone goes off and the notification is there. With emails however, I cannot tell you how many I have missed out on as they’ve simply got lost in the noise.
With that out of the way, let’s look at the actual bets. As you might expect from a service called The Longshot Punter, there are plenty of long shots involved. And long shots mean long odds. For some context on this, the BOG average odds come in at 18.95. However, the range is actually much more significant than this suggests with odds starting as low as 4.5, going all the way up to 51.00.
Probably not surprisingly, Mick favours backing these on an each way basis. WAP Bets’ proofing has shown this to be an effective approach on a number of occasions. The fact is that because of the long odds involved with The Longshot Punter, a horse only has to place to still provide some profit for that bet. This is something that I think is ultimately quite necessary to keep the betting bank balanced.
Whilst we’re talking about the betting bank, I do want to talk about the stakes for The Longshot Punter. You see, in the aforementioned proofing, every single bet is advised to 5 point stakes. This has a massive impact on a number of things. The main ones though are increasing your required starting betting bank, and arguably more importantly, inflating the results. Something that will become incredibly pertinent a little later on.
What I will say though is that the low volume approach here does help to make things slightly more manageable (Mick generally tips just a single bet per day). Especially if you were to want to follow that 5 point staking plan. But realistically, this can very easily be adjusted based on your needs.
Also helping matters is the strike rate of 38.18%. However, you should keep in mind that this includes bets where a horse has simply placed, as well as when they’ve outright won. The fact is that there have only been 19 outright winners in the proofing from WAP Bets, and 11 of those have been at odds lower than 10.00.
How Does The Longshot Punter Work?
Rather frustratingly, we are given very little information or insight into what the selection process for The Longshot Punter entails. I’ll be blunt here and say that I am familiar with Mick and his work having looked at Early Morning Punter last year. And there he talks a bit about horse racing and what his approach entails. And I am inclined to believe all of that. However, I would have liked to have seen some information that is specifically pertinent here.
There are a few clues though which allow some informed speculation. The fact that tips aren’t sent out till late in the day suggests that late information can be a key factor. Something that I have seen a number of other tipsters employ with quite a lot of success. Quite what this late information might be isn’t something that I would venture to guess on.
Where this is frustrating for me, especially from a consumer position, is that WAP Bets and Mick could easily have talked a little bit about what is involved here and what impacts selections. I don’t expect a detailed breakdown of what happens behind the scenes of The Longshot Punter, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable at all to want to have some understanding of what you are signing yourself up for. And unfortunately, you can’t really say that is the case here.
What I will say is undoubtedly a mitigating factor here is that WAP Bets do provide some very comprehensive proofing. This only goes back to the end of November with The Longshot Punter, but it covers every bet. This at least gives you an idea of how results can pan out, what kind of losing streaks you can expect, etc.
What is the Initial Investment?
One of the key considerations with something like The Longshot Punter is the costs involved. And if I’m honest, WAP Bets and Mick aren’t exactly offering this on the cheap. Don’t get me wrong, there is quite good value for money available at the time of writing due to various introductory offers. But this is ultimately on the pricey side.
The “cheapest” offer is a monthly subscription. This is priced at £49 which, whilst inclusive of VAT, is still a fair old amount to be paying out each month. The next option is a quarterly subscription which is priced at £98 every 3 months (although at the time of writing there is an introductory offer where you can get your first quarter for just £59).
The best value comes from a 6 monthly subscription which is priced at £147. Whilst this is the equivalent cost of 3 individual months and as such, is the best value for money by a long way, it is also a significant outlay. As with the quarterly option, at the time of writing there is also an introductory offer whereby you can get your first 6 months for £88.
Unfortunately, WAP Bets don’t tend to offer any sort of money back guarantee or refund on their services. I don’t count this too much against The Longshot Punter as it is pretty typical across the industry. It does however mean that you have to really willing to commit if you want to take advantage of this value.
What is the Rate of Return?
As I’m writing this, The Longshot Punter stands at a profit of 523 points. In around 5 months (technically a shade under) that is a very impressive result. As is the ROI Which WAP Bets’s proofing has calculated at 96.85%. This latter number is arguably the more important one here though, because I want to discuss that points profit a little bit.
The fact is that whilst I can appreciate that Mick may have reasonable reasons for staking 5 points on every bet, they do undoubtedly also inflate the results. As such, I think it is entirely reasonable to scale back the profits to 104.6 points using 1 point stakes. The interesting thing being, these are still pretty respectable results. 20 points per month is a very solid showing.
Conclusion for The Longshot Punter
I wasn’t really sure what to expect when I first started looking at The Longshot Punter. The marketing puts so much focus on Mick’s other service (that I am less enamoured with) that I struggled to find a real point of entry. But once you get past the fact that there is so much marketing crossover, you actually have a pretty competent tipster service here.
But there is a still a lot of consideration here. Because this isn’t a service that I believe really delivers any sort of consistency. I am going to talk a little bit about the profits for a minute here, and just to ensure that I am keeping context, I am going to mention points profits to WAP Bets’s proofing and my own scaled down results too.
The first thing to note is that The Longshot Punter made more than 60% of the profit in just one month. Specifically, 361.75 points made in December alone (or 72.35 points scaled down). That puts the other months at much more modest numbers of 34 points (6.8 points), 49.5 points (9.9 points) and 102.75 points (20.55 points). That is a fair old amount of disparity right there.
Another thing that I didn’t really touch on is how drastically the results drop if you aren’t able to get BOG. To BSP, the profits drop to 415.49 points or 83.1 points scaled down. To SP, it is just 289.25 points (or 57.85 points). All of this leads me quite nicely to one of the biggest issues that exist with The Longshot Punter.
The results there illustrate perfectly that you need to act very quickly on bets when you receive them. However, the issue with this stems from that fact that you receive bets so late in the day and the ability most people have to bet like that. It is one of those situations that is fine for those who can do this, but not so much for those who can’t.
And this brings me to probably my biggest issue with The Longshot Punter. When you start to factor all of that in… It just seems a bit niche. Don’t get me wrong, I can clearly see the potential that is on display here. If you are willing to follow it through the losing streaks, get the right odds, then you can enjoy some bumper months. And if you can do all of that, then there is even value here. Especially in the longer subscriptions.
So, for some people, The Longshot Punter may well be a good option. I just don’t necessarily think that it is something that will work for everyone, or in fact, most people. Especially if you want to stick to those 5 point stakes that produce those really impressive profits.