The Mathemagician is a new to market horse racing tipster service which is being offered through Bet Social. Selections come courtesy of one Michael Dawkins, a tipster with a seemingly strong mathematical background.
Introduction to The Mathemagician
There are a few things that I tend to get excited about in this industry. Consistent profits, interesting new ways of looking at betting, and a good name. I fully admit to being a sucker for something with a clever product name. So, when I saw The Mathemagician, you can absolutely bet your bottom dollar that I had a little giggle to myself about it, and immediately started to have a good look at what is on offer. If only so that I get to say Mathemagician to myself a lot.
Of course, as much as entertaining as all of this may be to me on a personal level, that isn’t very useful for people who are trying to make up their mind whether or not The Mathemagician is right for them. On the surface of things, it should be. Bet Social are now a relatively well established tipster stable and they have put out some pretty reasonable products. Furthermore, the results that Michael Dawkins has supposedly attained are very attractive indeed. In fact, I would even go as far as to say that they are quite spectacular.
However, as is so often the case with tipster services, things aren’t always as they seem. And whilst I don’t necessarily doubt that The Mathemagician is built on some pretty solid foundations, there are some elements here that set alarm bells ringing. How big a deal these elements are is something that definitely remains to be seen. So, with all of that out there, let’s look at what Bet Social are doing, and whether or not Michael Dawkins warrants a follow.
What Does The Mathemagician Offer?
Whilst I don’t believe that his offering from The Mathemagician is necessarily anything truly unique, there are a lot of things that Michael Dawkins does that I think are definitely different to a standard tipster service. I will expand on this at the appropriate points, but it is really important for me paint an accurate picture of what you are actually getting into here.
Before I start getting into the details of all of this, I want to start by talking about the logistical side of things. These are in line with what you would expect from a tipster stable like Bet Social. Something that isn’t a criticism by the way. I think there is a lot to be said for the fact that there is a standardised approach to management.
What this actually mean for you in this case is access to bets on a near daily basis. As you would expect, these are issued directly via email. However, Bet Social and Michael Dawkins also take advantage of an app called Telegram. Billed as the fastest messaging app in the world, it does one thing much better than email.
Whilst I can’t speak for everybody, I can say that I often miss things because of the sheer volume of emails that I have. At the time of writing, I have over 150,000 unread emails in one of my inboxes. As such, it can be easy to overlook tips form a tipster. With Telegram, you get a notification directly to your phone, making it much harder to miss.
One of the things that I really like about The Mathemagician is the fact that these tips are made available at around 9am. This is nice and early in the morning (and possibly bad news if you are looking to supplement a 9-5) and gives you a decent opportunity to ensure that you are getting the best possible odds. Something that an odds comparison site will definitely help you with. And getting the best odds can be quite important with this, because of Michael Dawkins’s approach.
You see, whilst The Mathemagician is ultimately concerned with simply backing horses on a win basis for races, there is much more strategy to it than this. Because Michael Dawkins leans heavily on dutching in order to secure a profit. Something that, when successful, can lead to some decent profits, but when it isn’t… Well, it can drastically compound the problem. Fortunately, this is somewhat mitigated by the fact that you will only be backing 2 horses per race.
For those not familiar with what dutching entails, it basically means betting on multiple horses in the same race. If the correct approach is taken, you can drastically narrow the field whilst still leaving yourself room to take home a profit or minimise your loss. Something that Bet Social’s proofing seems to show Michael Dawkins is intent on. Which is exactly why getting the best odds can matter. It can mean the difference between a small profit and a small loss.
Talking about the profit and loss, I do want to talk about the staking plan for The Mathemagician. Dutching relies on variable stakes. If you back every horse to 1 points stakes, it is only ever going to end one way. With you losing money. As such, you have to (generally speaking) bet more on the horses with lower odds whilst betting less on the longer shots. Michael Dawkins does this here with bets ranging from 1 point to 5 points on each horse in a given race.
Because of how The Mathemagician works, it should go without saying that it impacts the strike rate. Bet Social report that Michael Dawkins’s tips have a strike rate of around 35.53%, however, I don’t necessarily believe that this is representative of performance. For some context on this, by my count, only 36 days have occurred where one horse hasn’t won. That isn’t bad for 6 months of betting.
How Does The Mathemagician Work?
There are a few different elements in terms of how The Mathemagician works. The first one, and the most obvious is what I’ve just discussed. Dutching. It is very apparent from the low overall number of losses that it works, and Michael Dawkins has proven at least somewhat successful with the approach. But as I often say, simply using one betting type doesn’t necessarily make a betting system.
The other key part to The Mathemagician is Michael Dawkins, who is supposedly a “professor of Mathematics” who retired 6 years ago. From here, we are told that using his “mathematical brain” he was able to evaluate the stock market with much success. And now, he has turned his attention to horse racing betting markets where he has developed some “impressive mathematical formulae’s that really do put the odds back in the favour of us, the punter”.
This doesn’t really tell us a whole lot. Which is a bit disappointing if I’m honest. All that we really see iterated over and over is the “fact” that betting is a numbers game and Michael Dawkins is well positioned to take advantage of that. I don’t expect a full breakdown of his “formula”. I never do. But I would hope for more than “I used to be a maths professor and dutching helps narrow the odds of losing”.
Of course, Bet Social’s proofing does go some way to getting past this. Whilst Michael Dawkins doesn’t talk much about how The Mathemagician works, you can at least see how it has performed historically and current trends. This idea of the “ebb and flow” of things is incredibly important. Especially in light of the fact that the claims on the main sales page for the service are seemingly quite out of date, and not in a good way.
What is the Initial Investment?
There are a few options available if you want to sign up for The Mathemagician, and honestly, almost all of them are priced at a premium. Bet Social also offer drastically different value, depending on which option you go for.
The cheapest subscription in terms of outlay is the monthly one. This is priced at £48 per month (technically recurring every 30 days) and is inclusive of VAT. Next, there is a quarterly subscription. This represents much better value at a cost of £94 per quarter, however your first month will set you back just £64.
The best value offering for The Mathemagician also involves the most significant investment. This gives you access to 6 months of tips at a cost of £161. As with the quarterly option, there is a trial available whereby your first 6 months will cost you just £97.
It is noteworthy that none of these options come with any sort of money back guarantee or refund period (however, Bet Social do say that you can cancel at any time). This means that you do have to be pretty committed to Michael Dawkins’s tips if you want to follow the service.
What is the Rate of Return?
I feel like I’ve painted a picture of The Mathemagician as a service that just doesn’t lose a lot. And that is definitely correct. However, as anybody who consistently bets on favourites will tell you, winning often does not necessarily equate to winning money. For some context on this, between October 2020 and February 2021, Michael Dawkins’s tips brought in 121.64 points of profit. Not shabby, right?
This is however down from a high of more than 150 points at times. Now, 30 points over a few months might not sound drastic, and it can theoretically be turned over quite easily. After all, Michael Dawkins had an 80 point month in November. But I also think that it would be naïve to simply write this off as a one off. For me, arguably the most telling thing is an ROI of 16.19%. Not too shabby at all, but certainly not great.
Conclusion for The Mathemagician
When it comes to a tipster service, I often talk a lot about the broader results and balancing them out against recent form. This is really quite pertinent when you look at The Mathemagician. Because the fact of the matter is that whilst there is merit to the overall results, they are somewhat marred by that more recent form.
This is the kind of thing that can be typically overlooked when there is a decent system in place, and make no mistake, I do believe there is a decent system here. Dutching isn’t anything new and it is a long established method of narrowing odds and producing a profit. In theory, The Mathemagician is something that should definitely work in the longer term.
So why isn’t it, exactly? Well, there are a lot of reasons for this really. The fact is that the strike rate for The Mathemagician simply dropped off. And that can have a huge impact when you’re staking as much as 5 points per bet, all whilst your average odds are just 3.04. There isn’t always a lot of room for recovery. Especially when you consider that the best case scenario here is that at least one bet is going to lose.
This is all stuff that is really important to keep in mind, because whilst Michael Dawkins does seem to be turning things around a bit with March showing a decent profit (at the time of writing), things will almost inevitably take a similar turn again in the future. And at that point, the big question is whether or not it is worth the investment. Because as I mentioned, there is definitely some premium pricing here.
Here’s the thing, £48 per month is a lot of money to have to pay out. Sure, there is better value in signing up for longer periods, but ultimately, that just boils down to investing more money. And unfortunately, that expense combined with the more recent results are what make me somewhat apprehensive about The Mathemagician.
With all of that in mind, I think that this is something that may warrant some consideration and attention. Just… Not necessarily now. As I mentioned, I believe that there is a reasonable system in place. Whether or not it is quite as solid as Michael Dawkins and Bet Social make it out is something we can only speculate on. But what is important to note is that The Mathemagician is just 6 months old. A few more months isn’t a long time to wait to get a better picture of the potential, at least, in my opinion.
