The Nap Man Review – Bet Social

The Nap Man is a horse racing tipster service which is being marketed by the Bet Social tipster stable. They claim that the service has produced some very strong profits since they started proofing  the service.

Introduction to The Nap Man

It is always exciting in this line of work when you see a tipster service land on your desk that makes some very impressive claims about the income potential. We’re talking more in 5 months than a lot of tipster services will make in a year. Let’s be honest. That is a bloody good result. And really, it only bodes even better for the future (presuming those results can be maintained that is).

With all of that said, I will hold my hands up and say that a lot of the time, when something looks too good to be true, it is for a reason. And in the case of The Nap Man, there are potentially a few reasons that this may be the case. The unfortunate fact of the matter is that the involvement of Bet Social also does count as a bit of a negative. I’ll always keep an open mind, but in my experience, they tend to be a touch pricey.

So, there are some strong pros and some strong cons coming into this. The biggest question is whether or not The Nap Man delivers enough to ultimately make this a product that is worthwhile. Is this the case or not? Let’s dive in and have a look.  

What Does The Nap Man Offer?

It is quite fortunate that Bet Social actually provide a bit of a checklist for The Nap Man that describes exactly what their service offers. This includes a number of things including:

  • A proven betting opportunity that can make you money
  • Professional betting advice from a pro with decades of experience
  • A reliable tipster that makes long term profits
  • The ability to increase your bank by 361% in 4 months
  • Showing you how to make a good living from horse racing investing

Now, the reality of The Nap Man, as is so often the case, is that what you are actually getting is a very straight forward tipster service. You are looking at a near daily affair in which selections are sent out to subscribers directly via email. Very much as you would expect, especially from a tipster stable like Bet Social. Putting my thoughts on them aside, they have put out a lot of tipster services.  

From what I have seen, these are usually made available the morning of racing. Now, this doesn’t count too much against The Nap Man. There are loads of tipsters on the market who do exactly this. However, it can impact whether or not this is a service that will work for you. Especially if you’re on the 9-5 grind.

Moving on to the bets themselves, that idea of simplicity comes once again to the forefront. All of the bets that are advised through The Nap Man are straight win bets (a fact that Bet Social proudly declare as a selling point). Given that they are also on horse racing, this does at least mean that when it comes to placing your bets, you shouldn’t have any problems.

As you would probably expect from a nap tipster service, the odds that you get aren’t particularly great. Bet Social calculate that the average odds to BOG are 2.75, a number that is actually pretty representative of what you will see from The Nap Man. Looking through the proofing, I haven’t seen a single bet with odds of more than 6.00.

In terms of the volume of odds, as you also expect from a nap service, this is very much on the lower end of the scale. The fact is that if you are planning on picking winners often (which is of course the key premise of this kind of service) then you have to be selective. Personally, I don’t think that this is a bad thing, especially when you factor in the staking plan for The Nap Man.

You see, Bet Social’s proofing shows that all bets have been backed to level stakes of 5 points. Now, I don’t believe that this has necessarily been done explicitly with a view to inflating the results. However, it would also be naïve of me to ignore the fact that this is a side effect of doing so.

It is also worth noting that as well as this initial staking plan (which honestly, is already costly if you follow it) there is an optional version that involves compounding your stakes. Inevitably, whilst this can potentially increase your profitability, this of course also increases the risk as well.

With that said, Bet Social’s proofing for The Nap Man shows a strike rate that averages out at 63.03% which is a very strong number indeed. As such, this apparent risk is seemingly well managed by the tipster behind the service. The problem however is that the lower average odds means that this strike rate has to be maintained for this to be viable.

As an example, whilst it is still early in February at the time of writing, the strike rate sits at 50%. In spite of this seemingly strong result, the month is showing a small loss of 5 points. Likewise, January ended with a strike rate of 55.56% and a modest profit of 25.7 points (a number which sounds strong, but ultimately could well be seen as a 5 point profit to 1 point stakes).  

How Does The Nap Man Work?

The idea of nap based tipster services is one that I have seen a number of times. A nap is described as a tipsters best selection for the day and in the right hands, this can prove profitable. However, has as already been demonstrated the results really need to be maintained in order for this to remain profitable.

As such, I feel that it is very important for potential subscribers to know what the selection process entails. Unfortunately, Bet Social have said pretty much nothing in this regard. This is a pretty big problem for me as it makes it very difficult to make an informed decision, something that I have always said a genuine tipster will allow you to make.

I also believe that it is particularly important to have faith in the approach of a tipster when it comes to something like The Nap Man. I’ve made it perfectly clear that you have to have decent results for it to be profitable. And, when there are inevitable losing runs (because they will always happen eventually), you should be able to know that the tipster behind a service isn’t just blindly following a system or that they have the ability to turn things around.

Sure, there is an argument to be made that the fact Bet Social provide proofing is some mitigation on this lack of information. After all, looking at past results can (whilst not being definitive) provide you with a good idea of what the future holds. Unfortunately, I am of the opinion that the somewhat short length of proofing stops this carrying too much weight.

What is the Initial Investment?

If you want to sign up to The Nap Man, Bet Social have three different options available. The first of these is referred to as a monthly subscription, however, you should note that it is billed every 28 days. This means you will pay it 13 times a year. This “monthly” subscription is priced at £44.

Alternatively, there is more value to be had in signing up for a longer subscription. The quarterly option for The Nap Man is priced at £88 every 3 months (with your first 3 months discounted to £45). The best value however comes from a 6 monthly subscription. This is priced at £127 every 6 months (with your first 6 months discounted to £92).

It is worth noting that there is no mention of any money back guarantee by Bet Social. Given that payment for The Nap Man is handled directly via Paypal, I wouldn’t’ expect there to be anything on offer in this regard.  

What is the Rate of Return?

The main claim in terms of the income for The Nap Man is that there has been a profit of 373 points. This is equated as £37,300 using £100 stakes. Obviously, this all adds up, however, realistically most people won’t be staking that amount. Especially given the 5 point staking system which would mean £500 per bet.

It is worth keeping in mind that if you actually want to scale these numbers down to level stakes of 1 point per bet, these 373 points would be 74.6 points. I don’t necessarily believe that you should be using this as a barometer of the success of The Nap Man, but I do think it is quite important for providing context.

We are also told that using the alternative staking plan, you could have turned this £37,300 into £93,000. Alternatively, this is described as turning £2,000 int £9,300. Numbers that theoretically could be achieved, but again, not everybody is really going to be able to keep up with the stakes to obtain these results.

Conclusion for The Nap Man

There are quite a few compelling reasons that you might want to sign up for The Nap Man and not surprisingly, most of them are based around that profit. Let’s be honest, at £10 stakes you would still have made £3,730 in a relatively short space of time. Sure, that involves staking £50 on bets, but with a high strike rate and a low volume is that the end of the world?

On top of that, there is clearly some value to be had if you were to sign up to The Nap Man in the long term. After all, that £92 for 6 months means just £15.33 per month. Not a lot of money at all, right? Except that is actually a pretty significant outlay to make. And there is of course no money back guarantee on this so if The Nap Man doesn’t work out for you you’re just £92 down.

Which kind of brings me to my concern about The Nap Man and that is whether or not it can work long term. The fact of the matter is that those results really hang in a balance. It just doesn’t take much for this to start failing and if it does, it can take some time to recover. A fact that is rather unfortunately skipped over by Bet Social.

And given the lack of information on what the selection process involves, this risk becomes so much more prominent in my opinion. And that ultimately brings me to my final thoughts here. I just see The Nap Man as a risky investment.

Sure, I can see how there is some appeal to be had here. There has been a clear profit historically. And if you can bankroll those 5 point stakes, then it looks doubly impressive. The results aren’t bad.  But that just isn’t enough for me. If all we cared about was profit, I know of plenty highly impractical services that have made more than The Nap Man.

The fact is that there is a lot that can go wrong with something like The Nap Man. The nature of the service means that it just isn’t particularly well equipped to deal with big losses. It isn’t uncommon for bets to come in that have been less than evens and that impacts the returns. The fact is that these kinds of odds make it difficult to recover if you get a few losses on the bounce.  

 

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From: Simon Roberts