Trade Man Bets is a new to market horse racing tipster service which is operated by one John Cranston. Supposedly, he is making a very substantial income from betting, and by following his advice you can do the same.
Introduction to Trade Man Bets
Honestly, it has been a while since I’ve seen a tipster service that can be viewed as being entirely new. The fact is that whilst there are often several tipsters pushing their wares at a given time, they can usually be traced back to the same handful of vendors who appear to have something new every few months. But today’s subject doesn’t belong to that group, as it genuinely is a new vendor. And in some respects, simply that in and of itself is reason to pay at least some attention.
When you start to consider this fact in tandem with the claims that are made… well, I can see how Trade Man Bets might be at least a little bit exciting. I mean, John Cranston has supposedly made close to £2 million through his horse racing betting. That is one hell of a claim and make no mistake! Combine that with some frankly extraordinary claims in terms of the other elements of the service and… Well, if this can be delivered, it would be the single greatest betting system on the planet.
With all of that said, the fact that John Cranston really goes out of his way to paint Trade Man Bets as being the best thing since sliced bread is also a little concerning. Especially when you factor in that actually, most of the claims made are as easily questionable with little in the way of actual evidence backing them up. Something that I am, unfortunately, all too familiar with. So, let’s get right into it and see whether or not this really is as good as it is claimed to be.
What Does Trade Man Bets Offer?
The sales material for Trade Man Bets definitely presents itself as something truly a bit special. We are told, for example that (amongst other things) you will have revealed to you “How to guarantee you win practically every bet you place!”, “How to find the best sure horse racing bets quickly and easily!” and “Why this system works so well and how it can be used to produce guaranteed profits!”.
Those are of course some very strong sounding offerings. As you may well already be anticipating however, there are definite questions about the ability of Trade Man Bets to deliver on them. Because really, despite the many, many, many grandiose claims that are made, everything I have seen of what John Cranston is doing suggests a very straight forward tipster service.
What this means for subscribers from a logistical standpoint is selections being issued on a daily basis. As is pretty much industry standard, these are sent out directly via email, and all that you have to do is place the bets. This, we are told, is much more efficient than having to log into an account to view your tips. Something that is undeniably true, but also ignores the fact that I can’t recall a tipster in the last year (and more) that uses this method of distribution.
In terms of the information contained within said emails, honestly, I find it to be a bit lacking. John Cranston does a very good job of talking up what his service offers and makes mention of multiple options (which I haven’t been able to discover), all of which sound great. But really, compared to some tipsters out there, this really does feel like quite a basic product.
In terms of the bets themselves, well, there isn’t a massive amount to say. Ultimately, Trade Man Bets is a horse racing service, and a basic one at that. From what I have seen, you will mostly be dealing with straight win bets. Now, to be fair to John Cranston, as I always like to point out, there are limited betting markets in horse racing, but it does always concern me at least a little bit when there is no flexibility to a service.
The volume of bets is manageable. It may even veer slightly towards the high side on occasion. But by and large, in a perfect world, you shouldn’t struggle with Trade Man Bets. Of course, this is all dependent on what you are willing to put into it. In theory, you could just go and place your bets with the same bookie every single day, but to get the most out of this, you’ll probably want to be using an odds comparison site (which of course, does add on work).
This brings me to the odds. The sales material for Trade Man Bets proudly proclaims that “Many of the site’s tips come with terrific odds … meaning you could win 5, 10, 20 times your initial bet”. Except, that doesn’t seem to be what I have seen. There are the odd long shots, but generally speaking, you are looking at a very middle of the road service. As such, if I were going to follow John Cranston’s advice, I would be looking to leverage an odds comparison site to ensure that I’m getting the best possible odds.
Especially in light of how often you are likely to win. Which aside from the profits (which are massively confusing, but we’ll get to that later) is one of the very key selling points of Trade Man Bets. You see, John Cranston says that the strike rate for his service comes in at some 90%. That is a massive result that honestly, would be more in line with what I would expect from a particularly good lay betting service.
What is noteworthy about it however is that there isn’t really any proofing for it. You are very much taking John Cranston’s word that Trade Man Bets really can identify the winning horse in a given race, 9 times out of 10. Honestly, that seems incredibly unlikely to me given my time and experience with tipsters.
As a final note, it is worth mentioning that there isn’t a whole lot said about a staking plan. In spite of that, it seems like John Cranston favours level stakes. What isn’t discussed at all however, is what kind of betting bank you would need. Despite those claims of a high strike rate, I’d probably want a pretty substantial amount to fall back on though.
How Does Trade Man Bets Work?
It is alluded to many times that there is a system behind Trade Man Bets. Although quite what it actually does is something that remains very much up in the air. The fact is that there are a lot of different claims that are made. These range from the simple and straight forward, going all the way to some claims that are frankly, rather outlandish.
One of the first things that we are told is that John Cranston grew up in the “horsey area” of Gloucestershire. Something that he supposedly leans on. We are also told that because he was an outsider, this allowed him to look at things differently than a seasoned bettor. All of this sounds interesting enough, however, you will note that it also doesn’t really tell you anything of substance.
As well as this, we are also told that Trade Man Bets “tirelessly analyses the top horses and races day and night, 24/7”. This of course suggests something of a software element, because no person can spend all day every day analysing data. Backing this implication up a little is a reference to the service being “fully automated”, as well as a statement that “you can let the ultra fast, ultra easy Trade Man Bets system scour the web for you and automatically alert you when there is a money-making sure bet to be made!”.
One of the things that is frustrating to me is a distinctive lack of proofing for Trade Man Bets. And there are several reasons for this. Firstly, the results are too good to be true. As such, I’d be very interested to see how exactly John Cranston has got there. Secondly, the records seemingly must exist somewhere. The sales material actually makes reference to the service having been extensively tested. So, why aren’t we shown them exactly?
What is the Initial Investment?
In terms of signing up to Trade Man Bets, there is just one option available. This is despite several references to different packages. This is a one time payment of £29.99 plus VAT. For this you gain access to John Cranston’s selections for an entirely unspecified period of time, although it will likely be a few months at a minimum.
One of the things that is noteworthy about Trade Man Bets in my opinion is the fact that John Cranston says that he offers a 30 day money back guarantee. In and of itself, that is pretty typical. However, the service is being sold through Clickbank. On their sales page, there is actually a 60 day money back guarantee in place. This is a concerning discrepancy in my mind.
What is the Rate of Return?
Now we come to the part that is really interesting. The income potential. First things first, I want to talk about the fact that John Cranston has supposedly made £1,952,619.44 through his betting. This is a massive amount of money. But what is really interesting is that in the very limited evidence that is provided (4 winning bets), we’re shown that he bets to £50 stakes. This means that the points profit he has generated is at least 39,052.38 points. That is… Frankly, ludicrous.
Elsewhere, we are told that the average returns on a bet advised through Trade Man Bets stands at between 15% and 25%. Whilst that all sounds very impressive, it would put the ROI for the service at… Well, 15-25%. That isn’t a spectacular number and would suggest that in order to make the aforementioned profit, John Cranston would have staked as much as £12,000,000.
Conclusion for Trade Man Bets
I want to be a bit blunt for a minute here. If something is too good to be true, then almost all of the time, that will be the case. And too good to be true is almost exactly how I would describe Trade Man Bets. I mean… The notion that you can simply go from being a brickie to making more than a million quid through betting is a bloody big stretch.
Don’t get me wrong, there are definitely people who have made a million through betting. There are some who have made hundreds of millions, but they will tell you that to get to that point is a logistical nightmare. Especially at the level that John Cranston is working at. Because most of those who have enjoyed significant success have done so off the back of setting up companies specifically to do so. They aren’t peddling their wares for £30.
Now, let’s go back to those results again for a second. 39,052 points of profit. I would expect most tipster services who are having a decent year to produce around 350 points of profit. Using that bench mark, John Cranston has supposedly made more through Trade Man Bets over “just a few years”. Meanwhile, a genuine tipster having nothing but decent years would take more than 100 years to get to that number. That shows the kind of disparity that we’re talking about.
And whilst we’re on the subject of disparity, let’s talk about that money back guarantee. Because this is a massive red flag that I have seen before. You see, Trade Man Bets isn’t the first tipster service I’ve looked at to claim a shorter money back guarantee period than the one Clickbank offer. In my experience, this mistake is rarely an innocent one, and given the rest of the issues that exist around John Cranston’s service, I’m not convinced this is innocent either (although I’d love to be proven wrong).
On top of that, you have a lack of actual insight into the selection process, seemingly no actual idea of what the selection process is, and no proofing that you can look at to get an idea of what to expect. The only evidence that you’re supposed to be happy with are very questionable screenshots of a bank account and four winning bets.
Keeping all of that in mind I can’t really think of a single reason why you would look to recommend Trade Man Bets. Sure, it’s cheap, but as I’ve said many times before, if you’re not paying a lot for a crappy product, you’re still paying for a crappy product. It’s not even like you can say that the money back guarantee is good, because it demonstrably isn’t. All in all, this is one of the single most questionable services I’ve seen for a long time, and it deserves a considerable berth.