Ultimate Portfolio Review – Bet Social

Ultimate Portfolio is a new to market horse racing tipster service which is being offered by the Bet Social team. The service has seen some immense profits since they started proofing the service.

Introduction to Ultimate Portfolio

There are a lot of reasons that a tipster service may pique my interest. Sometimes though, there can be something that appears to deliver on multiple fronts. And that is where you really start to get my attention. Factor in dealing with quite a well known tipster stable (in the shape of Bet Social), and you have something that I am actually quite interested in. Now in the case of today’s subject, there are two things that caught my eye. The first is the use of the word “portfolio” (we all know how much I love them). The second, is massive profit.

 So, I’m going to start by doing something that I don’t do that often with Ultimate Portfolio. I am going to mention the profits before I get in depth with them. Because what you are talking about 528.66 points of profit in 4 months to BSP. That is mindbogglingly good, and the kind of result that it’s impossible to skirt around. I could go on and on about why the numbers are so good, but I’ll refrain for now. Namely because I’ll have nothing to talk about later. But of course, that isn’t where the story ends.

The fact of the matter is that it really does seem like Bet Social have absolutely smashed this out of the park. But there is a little bit more to this than meets the eye. And that isn’t necessarily in a complimentary way. In fact, as much as Ultimate Portfolio looks truly great at a glance, the more you look at it, the more important it becomes to ensure that everything is kept in context. Does this make it bad? Absolutely not. But it’s definitely… different.

What Does Ultimate Portfolio Offer?

So where exactly do you start with something like Ultimate Portfolio? It’s a difficult thing to really know, because there is a hell of a lot to cover. I know that I say this a lot, but from everything that I have seen, there just isn’t a whole lot of “typical” that you can talk about. And because there is so much change from one day to the next, that doesn’t create a very good jump off point as a writer.

The only area that is really consistent is how Bet Social manage the service. What I mean by this is that ultimately, the logistics of how it works are probably in line with what you would expect. Selections are sent out directly to subscribers via email. There is a decent amount of information included in said emails, however, that is about where I have to end. Because straight away there is a “split” in how you can approach Ultimate Portfolio.

What is interesting to me about this is the fact that you are looking at such varied results. Typically speaking, I am the first one to advocate using an odds comparison site, finding the best odds you can get, and maximising your value. But Ultimate Portfolio is ultimately more profitable to BSP.

So… You should be doing that, right? Well, that works if you are in a position to place bets or utilise software to do this. But even then, there are no guarantees that you are getting better odds than BOG. As such, I see this as being a bit of a personal decision, although if it were me I’d probably take the increased risk on BSP if you are able to do so.

On the topic of odds, they can range drastically. From less than evens going all the way up to 312.76 to BSP. There is little in the way of a consistent pattern to this as well. I think that the best context through probably comes from the average odds which sit at 4.5 for BOG and 6.58 for BSP (interestingly, the industry start price has higher odds than BOG, but lower profit). It’s all just wildly all over the place.

In terms of the bets that you will be placing, Ultimate Portfolio is a straight win based service. This means that at the very least, whichever approach you are taking with this, it isn’t something that is overly complicated. Especially if you are using BSP.

And sticking with the idea of simplicity, it is noteworthy to me that Bet Social’s proofing shows a relatively low volume service. There are frequent no bet days, and even when there are multiple selections, you are looking at no more than 3 on a given day. That is all very reasonable, and it is also quite important when you factor in the staking plan.

Flicking through the proofing that Bet Social provide for Ultimate Portfolio, it is very apparent that the vast majority of tips are advised to be backed at 5 points per bet. Now that doesn’t mean every bet. But the second most common stakes after that are 3 point stakes. And then 1 or 2 point stakes. Of course, this has a drastic influence on the results with the average stakes coming in a shade over 4 points.

Now, I categorically want to be clear here, I don’t think that Bet Social have taken this approach with the intention of inflating the results. But is rather difficult to ignore the fact that this is a side effect of this staking plan. I won’t dwell on this though as I will be talking about it a little later.

The final thing that I want to talk about is the strike rate, which is a very interesting thing. Because it comes in at 42.92% which is bloody impressive looking given those average odds. But actually, given that range in odds, it isn’t all that surprising. Because most of the winners are at the lower end of the spectrum.

How Does Ultimate Portfolio Work?

One of the things that is somewhat frustrating is the fact that when we talk about how Ultimate Portfolio works… Well, you’re pretty much coming in blind. Bet Social say that they have “put together that portfolio of services to create an all year round package, specifically tailored to the best of punters, those that understand about racing and betting in general”. Sounds good. But does actually tell us anything…?

The same can be asked of their statement that they take a professional approach to making money from the sport. Honestly, given how Bet Social are, I wouldn’t expect anything less from them. But it also doesn’t really talk about how the service works. Which is a bit problematic for me because there isn’t a lot here that follows any sort of trend or patterns.

Honestly, more than anything else, I think that having a solid selection process is massively important when dealing with a tipster. And ultimately, consumers deserve some insight into this. At least, enough to make an informed decision. Unfortunately, you can’t really do this with Ultimate Portfolio.

What does make up for this (at least somewhat) is the incredibly comprehensive proofing that is provided. Bet Social log every bet and as such, you can get a good idea of what the “ebb and flow” of the service is. What I will say however is that said proofing does only go back to August. Whilst this is a decent amount of time, it is far from a large sample size and I would probably be a bit cautious about throwing too much weight behind these initial results.  

What is the Initial Investment?

If you want to sign up to Ultimate Portfolio, there are three different options available. As you would expect, they vary wildly in terms of your outlay and what sort of value you are getting. These are a monthly subscription which is priced at £50, a quarterly subscription which is priced at £90, and a 6 monthly subscription that is priced at £140.

It is worth noting that at the time of writing, Bet Social are offering all of these for 50% off. With no ending date listed. Of course, this drastically improves the value available on any of those offerings.

These can be an exceptionally good option (presuming you are in a position to get them of course) as there is no money back guarantee or the like available for Ultimate Portfolio. That doesn’t come as a huge surprise to me as this is standard for Bet Social. I also don’t really see it as a deal breaker as it is standard for most tipster stables.

What is the Rate of Return?

I’ve already touched on the profit potential for Ultimate Portfolio. And let’s be honest, it’s bloody impressive. 528 points in 4 months (those are the BSP figures) is amazing by anybody’s standards. But then there are a few additional things to consider. Namely that as I’m writing this, December is up just 5 points. To BOG, it looks slightly better with a shade over 8 points of profit. But that is a massive decline on the almost 100 points per month historic results.

There is also the small fact of the staking plan. I’m sure that Bet Social have some kind of reason for advising the stakes that they do, but scaling back from that 4 point average to 1 point would see a more reasonable looking 132.16 points to BSP. That’s still a very impressive 33 points per month. But it’s not quite that £11,000 per month that it is suggested can be attained.

I think that arguably the best reflection of the profit potential of Ultimate Portfolio comes from looking at the ROI. This ranges from 46.47% (industry start price) all the way up to 56.12% (Betfair start price). But even as impressive as these numbers are, they are hampered by what has been a pretty rubbish December (to date). What this tells me is that there are seemingly decent profits to be had from Ultimate Portfolio, or at least, there have been historically.

Conclusion for Ultimate Portfolio

All of that does lead me very nicely to my conclusion here, because it is a relatively straight forward thought process. The last 4 months, Ultimate Portfolio has been bloody brilliant. However you want to dress up the profits and loss, a 46% ROI as a minimum is really something else. If you can afford the stakes, 533 points is definitely not to be sniffed at (an understatement really).

But I cannot really bring myself to recommend Ultimate Portfolio., barring some very specific circumstances. So, why is this? Well, the unfortunate truth of the matter is that there isn’t really a short answer to this. It is more that there are a myriad of different problems that exist in my eyes. And it is only when they are brought together that I think you start to see the broader picture.

So, first things first, let’s address the elephant in the room. Why aren’t the profits enough for me to recommend Ultimate Portfolio? Well, there are two things that influence this for me. First things first, let’s address the fact that December has, by all accounts, had a profit of 5 points to 4 points stakes. That can be scaled back to 1.25 points to level stakes of 1 point.

Is that simply a blip in an otherwise absolutely incredible service? Maybe. But would I say it’s worth paying £50 a month to find out? Or committing £90 to be tied down for 3 months? Those are difficult questions to answer, and in my opinion, the answer is probably not. But that doesn’t mean this is a complete write off either, because those half price offers do look appealing. Specifically, that quarterly option at £45. That sounds reasonable.

But of course, Bet Social have stated that is a limited time offer. So, what about if you aren’t in a position to take advantage of this? Well, I’d really be looking to simply see how the service performs over the next couple of months. The fact of the matter is this. I have seen so many tipsters that launch off the back of some incredible results, only to end up having a massive (and negative) swing in results once they launch.

You see, I often feel that there is sometimes a bit too much weight placed on overall results. Now, what I mean by this is that a service can go 500 points up, then lose 300 points. At this point, a tipster could still talk about being 200 points up, and that would be accurate. But based off that longer term run of form, would you sign up at that point expecting to be 200 points up in the long run? I know that I wouldn’t.

And that is the real problem that exists with Ultimate Portfolio. It has performed very well historically, but there is a suggestion that perhaps a corner has been turned in terms of the results for the negative. Let’s not forget, if you’d joined at the start of December, you’d only be 5 points up, and to reiterate my point form before, that is to average 4 point stakes.

So, to say that I wouldn’t recommend Ultimate Portfolio might have been a touch premature. I think that it’s more a case with this that I wouldn’t recommend it right now. Instead, I would be inclined to keep half an eye on this (again, with the caveat you can afford those stakes), because even I have to admit that if you can afford to bet along with this, and it is winning, it is hugely profitable.  

 

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From: Simon Roberts