Value Backing is an independent horse racing tipster service that is operated by alleged “Harvard graduate and racing expert” Carl Nicholson.
What does the product offer?
Value Backing is a tipster service that unlike many options on the market does not put the focus on supplying subscribers with daily selections. In fact, in a given one month period Carl Nicholson can make as few as just 6 selections. As the name suggests, Value Backing is based firmly on the idea of value betting with odds very rarely valued below 4/1. As a service Value Backing is actually made up of two different angles on your betting with the main service as well as an “Extra” service that provides more numerous (but also riskier) selections. Looking at the numbers, Value Backing appears to follow a level staking plan with bets being a combination of win and each way bets with around a 50/50 split between the two betting types. In terms of strike rate, the main service has achieved an average of just 16.05% whilst the Value Backing Extra service has a strike rate of around the same number.
How does the product work?
At the core of Value Backing is identifying bets that represent exceptional value however there is actually very little information on how Carl Nicholson does this. Whilst the landing page for Value Backing talks about his background in maths and computer science (through Harvard University if you believe the copy) and as a race reader for the Daily Racing Form, there is very little that actually looks at what the selection process is which is rather disappointing.
What is the initial investment?
There are two subscription options available for Value Backing. The first of these is a monthly one at a cost of £34.99 per month or alternatively, you can pay £199 for a year of selections. It is worth noting that there is no mention of any money back guarantee which I would take to mean that there is nothing like this in place unfortunately.
What is the rate of return?
Since the start of 2015, Value Backing has made just 27.3 point of profit whilst the extra service hasn’t fared much better making just 24.7 points of profit.
For me, the big problem with Value Backing is that it simply doesn’t really make enough money, especially when it is put next to some of its contemporaries. At the moment, between both services you would have made around £500 to £10 stakes. If you were on a monthly subscription you would have paid out £245 in subscription fees.
Whilst a profit is still a profit, I just don’t see how the investment needed would really warrant such a minor return. Whilst Carl Nicholson may well have some kind of winning formula in place, for me there simply isn’t enough winning happening here for the money. If this were half the price, it may warrant some interest but as it stands I simply don’t see Value Backing really providing value.