Value Form Racing Tips Review – Bet Social

Value Form Racing Tips is a relatively new to market horse racing tipster service which is being offered through the Bet Social tipster platform. The selections come courtesy of one Peter Gill.

Introduction to Value Form Racing Tips

I’m pretty sure that I’ll have banged on about this a million times before, but I’m a simple man. And as a result of this, I do tend to quite like simple betting systems and services. I’m not averse to difficulty, but in my experience, the less moving parts, the easier something is to manage. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t mind putting a bit of work in for something that is decent, but when you get tipsters that spend months sinking money whilst they wait for one big winner to come in… Well, it’s not great. Or really viable, to be honest.

All of this is very relevant because today’s subject, Value Form Racing Tips is (at least on paper) pretty much everything that I would want from a tipster service. And when you have Peter Gill saying “Over the years I have honed my skills to produce truly amazing and very consistent results through my Value Form strategy!”, it’s hard not to be at least a little bit interested by all of that. Especially because the numbers seem to back it up as well with a claimed profit of 18 points a week.

At this point, you might think that I’ll be looking to quickly wrap this up as a sure fire thing. I mean, even if Peter Gill only delivers on half of that 18 points a week, Value Form Racing Tips would still be smashing it. And Bet Social are a relatively well known tipster stable, so there is an air of legitimacy to all of this as well, right? Well, yes and no. Everything I have said so far is true. However, there are also a lot of things that really put me off this. So, let’s dive right in.

What Does Value Form Racing Tips Offer?

I want to start by talking about the logistics of Value Form Racing Tips. Because in something of a rarity, this is where a lot of the appeal lies to me. Don’t get me wrong, this doesn’t mean that Bet Social are doing anything that comes close to breaking the mould (they definitely aren’t). But Peter Gill does seem to have a strong sense of identity for the service and what he wants it to be.

Now, the first thing that stands out to me looking at Value Form Racing Tips is the fact that it isn’t actually a daily tipster service. Something that is probably a bit underwhelming if I’m honest. But because of the approach that Peter Gill takes, it is welcome. I’ll be coming to it the specifics a little later on, but most services of this nature will bet every day, simply to make people feel like they might be getting value. Not seeing that here is very welcome.

On the days where there are bets, there will be just one bet that is provided. As you would expect, this will be sent out directly to subscribers via email. Unfortunately, Bet Social and Peter Gill don’t provide a whole lot of information with said email. This does add some extra steps if you want to get the most out of Value Form Racing Tips, but at one bet per day, that isn’t the worst thing in the world.

Regular readers will probably know what’s coming here, but I cannot recommend enough using an odds comparison site with Value Form Racing Tips. The low volume nature of this means that if you want to get the most out of your winnings, you really do need to be ensuring that you’re getting the best possible odds. For context on this, the difference in profit between BOG and SP with Bet Social’s proofing is more than 100 points. That is the kind of difference getting the best odds can make.

In terms of the bets themselves, well, simplicity is the name of the game once again. The approach that Peter Gill takes means that you will exclusively be placing win bets here. That isn’t really a bad thing to me though. It is certainly preferential to throwing together random accas and backing long shots on an each way basis “just in case”.

What really stands out though is that despite the approach taken, you actually do get some potentially decent odds here (again, if you are willing to shop around for them). The average odds to BOG come in at 4.38 and that is a pretty genuine reflection of the results that you can expect to see. This is as opposed to some tipsters that are just… Well, all over the place. It really sells that idea of Peter Gill being a consistent tipster.

Now, that idea of consistency is pretty well represented, but I think it’s time to start talking about where it falls apart a bit. And that is the strike rate. Arguably one of the most important areas to be consistent. You see, Bet Social proudly proclaim a 47% strike rate for Value Form Racing Tips. A look at the proofing shows that this has dropped somewhat considerably to 37.74%.

But this is includes a high of 59.26% in the first month, and a low of 14.29% in November. Don’t get me wrong, the numbers really do add up 37% is a legitimate average. But it also means that whilst 37% sounds good, it isn’t entirely representative of what you may get. I mean, for context, November had just 3 winning bets out of 21.

Following stakes of just 1 point per bet, that might not add up so much. But Peter Gill typically advises staking either 2 or 3 points on a bet. Something that definitely adds up over time, hence, November ending the month with a loss of almost 28 points. It also has other implications in terms of the profit and loss that I will come to shortly.

How Does Value Form Racing Tips Work?

As the name of the service suggests, a key part of Value Form Racing Tips is obtaining the best possible value. And that is something that Peter Gill says that he is very good at saying “I uncover these value bets every day! Bets that I know will make me long term profits”. And if I’m honest, there does seem to be something to this with the average odds being at 3.63, even to the significantly less profitable SP.

The other element of Value Form Racing Tips is also right there in the name. And that is a focus on form. This is an area where, if I’m honest, we aren’t given quite as much information as I’d have liked to have seen. Really, all that we see is a claim that “SELECTIVITY + FORM + VALUE = BIG PROFITS!”. In some respects, I have to credit Peter Gill with telling us more than some tipsters do, but I’d have definitely liked to have seen more.

Truthfully, just relying on form alone isn’t something that I see working out all that often. Does it give you an edge? Definitely. But the problem with form is it’s such an apparent starting point that it can be hard to get genuine value (which may well explain the decline in results that I will talk about shortly). As such, is Peter Gill in a situation where he’s picking horses that don’t necessarily have genuine value, but just longer odds? I don’t know. But without any more insight into the selection process, it is difficult to know what the case is here.

There is however some progress made in Bet Social’s proofing. To be entirely fair to them, they log Peter Gill’s results whether Value Form Racing Tips is producing winning bets or not. As such, it makes it easy to look at this and get a wider overview of the performance of the service, as well as get an idea whether this will be a good fit for your approach to betting.

What is the Initial Investment?

Bet Social have a number of different options available for those who want to sign up to Value Form Racing Tips. The first of these is a monthly subscription, however, at £49 every 30 days it is pretty bloody expensive. There is undeniably better value to be had with a quarterly subscription which is priced at £98 per quarter. Effectively, this is giving you a free month.

By far and away the best value comes from signing up to Value Form Racing Tips on the longest subscription. This gives you access to Peter Gill’s tips for a full 6 months for just £10 more than a quarterly subscription. Of course, that does mean the largest outlay, but more importantly in my eyes, it means being tied down to the service.

Unfortunately, there is a problem with this longest subscription. Namely the fact that there is no money back guarantee in place. This means that you are tied down for some time at that high cost. And if the recent results are anything to go by, that isn’t the best thing.  

What is the Rate of Return?

The results for Value Form Racing Tips are a true smorgasbord of pros and cons. In the first month, Peter Gill made a profit of 114.16 points to BSP. This peaked at a profit of 220.46 points at the end of October. Unfortunately, since then, there has been a decline and as of the time of writing this, the profit would stand at 184.47 points.

But you also have to factor in that this profit has been produced using multiple point stakes. As such, you could easily say that you’ve been staking an average of 2.5 points per bet. That would mean that to level stakes, the profit would drop significantly to 73.8 points. Still not bad after 5 months, I’d like to add. But much less.

Meanwhile, if you weren’t able to get BOG, the overall profit for Value Form Racing Tips using those recommended stakes just at 73.35 points. This shows just how big a difference there is if you are unable to get the best possible value, and why shopping around for odds is so important. Again, that isn’t necessarily a terrible result, but in both cases, they are very much propped up by an exceptional first month.

As a final note, it is worth considering that to BSP, the results are very similar to BOG. That does offer some respite. But there is generally much more risk involved with betting on an exchange and hoping that the odds are there, compared to ensuring that you’ve “locked them in” at the start.

Conclusion for Value Form Racing Tips

In many ways, I really like Value Form Racing Tips. I want to be thoroughly clear about the fact that I respect Peter Gill’s values, I like the approach to betting that it takes, and whilst there are arguments that it’s a bit ropey on the profit front, it has ultimately made a profit that could be seen as respectable. I want to open with that to keep in context the fact that I’m kind of going to trash it now.

Whilst I can appreciate what Value Form Racing Tips does, there are a lot of variables here that to me, are a bit concerning. The big one is the difference in profit. More than halving the results for missing out on BOG isn’t great. Sure, you could use BSP, but that comes with its own host of problems including being there close to the off to get your bet placed.

Secondly… I think that Value Form Racing Tips is expensive. I’ve tried to find a better way of phrasing it, but it’s a bit of a dear do. £49 a month is a hell of a lot to ask for a tipster service. Especially one that is based around consistency but has displayed so little of it. When you can’t deliver on your core selling point, it’s hard to justify a number that is (in my mind) at the top end of what you should be paying for a tipster.

Of course, there remains that argument that there is much better value if you sign up longer term. That way, you more than cut the costs in half. In fact, you’d paying just £18 per month which sounds a lot better. Expect, you’re then tying yourself down to a service that hasn’t had the best run of form recently. Between the 23rd of October and my writing this, there have been just 4 winning bets.

And for me, that number is what nails Value Form Racing Tips down as being a no go. Because when you combine those kinds of losses, with the staking plan involved, and the odds that you are betting on, that is a long slow climb to recovery. Had you joined Peter Gill at the start of this dip, you’d be down 38.99 points at the time of writing to BOG. To SP, you’d be down another 5 points.

When you consider that the biggest win in this period was 3.5 points, that means 11 straight winning bets just to bring you back into profit. That is quite the ask in my opinion. Don’t get me wrong, longer term, this might well balance itself out. It isn’t entirely insurmountable for a service that has enjoyed some very strong months. But you still have to face down what a challenge that is.

Personally, I wouldn’t look to recommend Value Form Racing Tips right now. I just don’t think that the recent form suggests that it is “there”. Honestly, there remains the entirely conceivable possibility that you will continue to lose money. And when you’re paying out a minimum of £49 for that privilege… Well, that’s a bloody big ask.

But I don’t think that I’d discount this entirely either. I do believe that there are some strong underlying principles here and previous months have been pretty good. As such, I would probably be inclined to keep this on the back-burner, just to see if those results do have a turnaround that warrants the costs involved.

 

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From: Simon Roberts