Winner Odds Review Miguel Figueres

Winner Odds is a sports betting service from Miguel Figueres that aims to provide profitable value tennis bets. The approach taken is algorithmic in nature, making this one of the more unique platforms out there for tennis betting.

Introduction to Winner Odds

In this line of work, I feel like I have seen pretty much everything that can be thrown at you in terms of how a betting system “works”. Most of the time it is simply down to a tipster working hard. But then you get into the realm of borderline fantasy. This is where people start talking about shadowy cabals of horse racing insiders rigging the game, exploiting the “interconnected-ness” of everything through numerology, and increasingly AI. This latter one being interesting because AI has a lot of real world applications in the here and now.

This can be seen in a wide variety of industries, and increasingly, there is talk of it in betting. But rarely have I seen it implemented with any level of success. I have my thoughts on why this may be, but that is a whole article in and of itself. But if there is a service that does seem to have got it right, it is today’s subject, Winner Odds. A tennis service that, simply put, is producing some truly incredible long term results leveraging AI and principles of value.

Honestly, I feel like Winner Odds is incredibly straight forward. Something that, in principle, is very welcome. With that said, though, there are a huge number of wildly varying factors that will really affect just what the worth of this is for a lot of users. Because you should make no mistake, whilst I believe that Miguel Figueres is ultimately running a very good service, there are so many caveats that the number of people for whom it should end up workable is potentially very slim. So, let’s get right into it.  

What Does Winner Odds Offer?

I’m not entirely certain how I should describe Winner Odds if I’m honest. And I can say that with confidence because I’ve tried to start this article a lot of times. I think I’m ultimately going to settle on this as a piece of software, because much of what you do is handled through a member’s area on the site, and you interact with their own interface. But don’t expect me to commit to this too much.  

With that vaguely established, let’s talk about using the software. Honestly, it is all very good. Betting software at one point was pretty iffy with a lack of intuitive UI and a strong focus on function over form. Not the worst thing, admittedly, but also not exactly great if you aren’t technologically minded. I can, to my frustration even today, remember 100 plus page manuals showing you just how to use a piece of software.

Like I say though, none of that is a problem with Winner Odds. Everything is where you would expect it to be, does what you would expect it to do, and using it is generally a piece of cake. So full credit to Miguel Figueres there. And actually using it is generally simple because whilst I believe there is a lot of complex stuff happening in the background, the ideas are just so straightforward (as I will explore a little later on).

Not to put too fine a point on it, using Winner Odds is fundamentally as simple as “is a box green”. If it is green, then you should bet on it. If it is red, then you should stay away. In theory, you could probably teach most toddlers the very basics of using the software (not that I condone toddler betting, obviously).

Effectively, you are shown a list of bets, who you should be betting on, and the odds that you should be backing them at. This is a point that is incredibly important when you’re dealing with Winner Odds. Not least of which is because value is fundamentally key to the whole service, but I will pick this point up a little later.

You also get a list of bookies that you are registered with and what odds they have made available, all updated in real time. If there is a bookmaker that is offering over the advised odds (or “Minimum Profitable Odds as Winner Odds refers to them as) they are highlighted. Miguel Figueres says that you then simply have to go through to that bookmaker and place the bet. It is all incredibly simple.  

Topping all of this simplicity off is a strike rate that comes in at an average of some 66% according to Miguel Figueres. Given that this is taken from over 35,000 bets and 5 years, it represents a genuine reflection of what kind of results you can expect here too. The fact is that with that kind of data sample, it is hard to use anomalous bets to boost numbers.

So, lets’ get to some of those caveats that I mentioned. First things first, and you may have noticed this, 35,000 bets in 5 years. That is 7,000 bets per year. Around 20 bets per day on average. Let’s not mince our words here. That is a hell of a lot of bets to place, even with the incredibly simple interface that Winner Odds has.

As well as that, there also has to be some consideration for the betting bank required and the stakes involved. Firstly, let’s talk about the investment required. The minimum betting bank that is recommended for Winner Odds is €1,000. Now, this is generally in line with what I calculate off with any tipster service. But the 1,000 figure is generally the maximum that most reasonable people may put aside. Not the minimum entry point.

On top of this, there are the stakes involved. Miguel Figueres uses the Kelly Criterion as the basis for staking with Winner Odds. I won’t go into the full details of this because again, pretty much a full article in and of itself, but it boils down to this. The more likely an event is, the more you stake on it in order to maximise your profit. On some of the shorter odds though, this can mean staking as much as €75 per bet.

And there are a lot of short odds here. Generally speaking, you will be concerned with bets at lower than 3.0 and rarely will you exceed that. Now, this is in no small part simply how the system works, but it is important to keep in mind as some people may want to avoid this kind of approach.

How Does Winner Odds Work?

There are a few things at play with Winner Odds, all of which ultimately tie into one another. First things first, let’s talk about the AI. Miguel Figueres says that it carefully analyses more than 400,000 professional tennis matches. A neural network then uses all of the statistics this generates in order to estimate the real probabilities of future tennis matches. Honestly, this is all pretty feasible.

From here, there is a calculation of those aforementioned “minimum profitable odds”. These are odds that long term, should ensure a profit is locked in and are based around the probability of an outcome as decided by the AI. Now, this isn’t to say that every bet is going to be profitable, but that every bet over a long enough time will balance out to produce a profit.

The other element of Winner Odds is something that we have probably seen many times before. Effectively, Miguel Figueres’s software compares those “minimum profitable odds” with the odds that bookies have available. Usually, this is down to a mis-pricing somewhere and allows you to capitalise on those greater than expected odds.

And just really bringing this home (at least, in my opinion) is the fact that you can really take a very substantial look at the results and what kind of things you can expect. This demonstration of the “ebb and flow” of results with Winner Odds gives you a very good idea of what kind of risk you are ultimately taking on here.

What is the Initial Investment?

Earlier on I was talking about the caveats that come with Winner Odds, and a big one of these is the pricing. Because Winner Odds doesn’t come cheap. Miguel Figueres has two options that are available if you want to sign up. Firstly, there is a monthly cost of €99 per month. This is some £87 which is a hell of a lot to pay out.

The other option that is available is a bi-annual service. This represents better value coming in at €495 every 6 months. But let’s be very clear here, better value still doesn’t mean inexpensive. You’re still looking at almost £435 every 6 months.

It is also worth keeping in mind that there is no money back guarantee or refund available here. Miguel Figueres makes no mention of this, and honestly, I wouldn’t expect it given what you are dealing with.  

What is the Rate of Return?

Since May 2016, we are told that all users of Winner Odds have made a profit of €3,597,429. That is a huge amount of money. It is also clearly a big deal to Miguel Figueres because it is the main number that is slapped on the front page.  But it also lacks a lot of context in my opinion. How much are people staking, how many bets are they betting on etc.

So, let’s look at some more manageable numbers. Over the last 12 months, Winner Odds is on a points profit of 360.62. Honestly, that isn’t too bad looking. Hell, I’d go as far as to say it is very good. However, there have also been units bet of 5,380 points. So, that is quite a lot to have to stake in order to see the results. Something that an ROI of 6.7% represents.  

Conclusion for Winner Odds

Winner Odds is a very good product. Make no mistake, in terms of what Miguel Figueres is doing, it is really quite exceptional. Consistent profits, relatively low risk, and a concept that is theoretically evergreen. So, you might think that I’ll be looking to wrap this one up quickly as a recommendation, right? Well, not entirely. Because sometimes, a very good product can still not be right for people.

Let’s address the biggest things with Winner Odds. Investment. Having €1,000 to bet with isn’t unfeasible, and using this, you would have seen a profit of €3,605.19 over the last year. Not bad at all. But then factor in that somewhere between €990 and €1,200 of that goes on your subscription fees, and it starts to feel a bit less impressive. It’s still good, but it’s not quite as good.

On top of this, there is the level of work involved. Your time investment. In order to have attained this result you would have had to have placed 13.13 bets per day on average. And you’d have had to have been there at the right time for these bets to hit that Minimum Profitable odds. Because they aren’t always available. Sometimes, you have to rely on odds drifting and moving.

And finally, I want to touch on my point about the concept being theoretically evergreen. Bookies now, more than ever, are becoming pains in the backside for gubbing accounts. Making a decent profit? Gubbed. Irregular staking? Gubbed. “Suspicious” betting patterns? Gubbed. And once that starts to happen, you’re pretty much shut out of using that bookmaker, and Winner Odds is reliant on having multiple bookies.

Guess what else Winner Odds is also reliant on? Those “suspicious” betting patterns? That can literally mean consistently betting when a bookie has overpriced a game, and you are following a system. Irregular staking? As great as the Kelly Criterion is in theory, the stakes are all over the place. Again, this can be an indicator that you are following a system. And if both of those things are working out, the profit seems inevitable.

Miguel Figueres says (somewhat naively in my opinion) that you can get around this by spreading your bets out over bookies, but there are some pretty unscrupulous tactics they use. This leads me to believe that you will get away with following Winner Odds for some period of time, but how long that will be will vary massively from one use to another.

So, would I recommend Winner Odds? The short answer here, as good as it is, is probably not. Now, don’t get me wrong. There seems to be money to be made here. Some people will make an absolute killing out of Miguel Figueres’s service and make no mistake. But those are people who have a lot to invest. For a lot of people, the costs involved are just too much money compared to the results. And then there is the work involved.

As I said, Winner Odds is a good product, but there are others on the market that are just… Well, arguably better. And less money. And don’t put all of your bookmaker accounts at risk. For some high end punters, these aren’t concerns that they have to have. But I know a lot more people for whom these are very real considerations. So, if you are able to really commit here, it is great. But for most people, I’m not convinced it will be.

 

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From: Simon Roberts