XG90 is a football betting tipster service that is being offered by one Peter Hoeg. He makes some incredibly bold claims about his service and the profits you can expect to see.
Introduction to xG90
I always say that there are no guarantees in betting. Of course, I am somewhat hyperbolic with this statement. There are some things that you can guarantee. But the blunt fact is that what I mean is that you can’t ever guarantee results. Author Terry Pratchett has a whole running joke in his Discworld series that “million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten”. The idea being that the improbable happens all the time, usually when you don’t need it to. Which is why most genuine tipsters avoid guaranteeing any sort of numbers.
Anyway, allow me to introduce you to Peter Hoeg who opens his sales pitch by referring to xG90 (his system) as “The Most Successful Service Of 21/22” before going on to “Guarantee £10,981 Profit This Football Season”. Of course, we’re a ways into the season now, so you can probably expect a bit less. But putting aside when in the season we are, there is a guarantee of profit here. Albeit a bit of a specific number, but the fact of the matter is that is a guaranteed £11,000. Right?
Well, it probably won’t come as much surprise to most people to learn that I’m somewhat sceptical about this. Peter Hoeg does however get one thing incredibly right. He talks very extensively about what his approach to betting is. There shouldn’t be much in the way of ignorance when it comes to xG90 (unless you include some seemingly from the man himself, but I’ll come to that). As always though, the real burning question that surrounds this is simple. Does it work as advertised? Let’s explore that a bit.
What Does xG90 Offer?
Whilst Peter Hoeg is incredibly happy to talk about his philosophy behind xG90, there is one key piece of information that, in my mind, is missing. And that is what you can actually expect from the service. Honestly, this is an interesting inverse for me. Normally, tipster services will talk at great length about what you’re signing up for, but never about what their system is actually built around.
The fact of the matter though is that once you start to sift through all of the BS, it becomes quite apparent that xG90 is an incredibly straightforward affair. Whilst there are one or two things that I feel it’s fair to say Peter Hoeg is doing “differently” on, these examples are mostly exceptions to the rule.
Ultimately, the experience with xG90 is a pretty typical example of what you might expect from a modern tipster service. One of the few differences stems from the way Peter Hoeg structures his service. There is a concept here of “rounds of fixtures”. Really though, this is pretty much just providing bets for the week. It sounds good, I am less convinced that tit actually adds anything of value however.
Something that is quite interesting to me in terms of these rounds is the following statement. “Unlike bogus services, we don’t ever force a bet. We keep things simple; you will get a maximum of 5-bets per round of fixtures (and a minimum of 4 so you’ve always got something to sink your teeth into)”. A lengthy quote for sure, but one that is worth noting with xG90.
Obviously, this tells us a bit about the volume of bets. What really stands out about this to me though is the fact that whilst “bogus services” don’t force a bet, Peter Hoeg is stating that xG90 is superior by ensuring that there is a minimum of 4 bets per round. And with a maximum of 5 bets, it seems to be like splitting hairs in terms of this idea of “forcing” bets. Seems somewhat contradictory to me.
Now, let’s talk about the bets themselves. All of the bets advised through xG90 to date are effectively backing a team to win. Where Peter Hoeg does offer some sort of variation of this, you’re still just ultimately backing on a “Win and Draw” basis or covering your back with a Draw No Bet. This is something that is quite interesting to me given how the service supposedly works (and is also a point I want to pick up a little later).
Interestingly, you might expect to get particularly low odds on this sort of betting. By and large, I think that this is all pretty true. Even outside bets don’t have particularly good odds. And yet, based on the proofing that Peter Hoeg provides for xG90, the average odds come in at higher than evens. This is somewhat contrary to what I have seen though.
What I will say though is that this is the kind of service where, realistically, you have to be using an odds comparison site. As well as the fact that you are dealing with inherently low odds, it is noteworthy that I don’t think you’ll actually be winning all that often. Something that is definitely contrary to the claims Peter Hoeg makes in the sales material for xG90.
You see, what we’re told, is that you can expect to see 7 out of 10 bets actually winning. Something that the proofing seems to back up with a strike rate of 73.77% for xG90 (if you believe Peter Hoeg’s numbers of course). Unfortunately, the results I’ve seen appear to be quite a bit lower than this.
All of this is compounded by a staking plan for xG90 that is incredibly aggressive. Peter Hoeg refers to this as effective and maximising your returns per bet. Personally though, I just find myself looking at it all and feeling like it is inviting additional risk. Especially because the numbers aren’t quite all that they’re cracked up to be.
How Does xG90 Work?
So, how does it all work? Well, the basic idea is an incredibly simple one. That is looking at expected goals. No doubt many of you reading this will be familiar with the statistic. It has become something that is dragged out a lot by pundits and for good reason. They provide excellent insight into how a team should be performing, a fact that Peter Hoeg leans on heavily in the sales material for xG90.
Here’s the thing though. What it doesn’t do is reliably predict future results. Something that Peter Hoeg suggests is the case with xG90. Unfortunately, this isn’t really expanded on. Instead, the focus is changed to talking about how other methods of considering things like form and other statistics are somehow flawed. A hypothesis that I would disagree with vehemently. Not only is all data helpful, but expected goals aren’t more helpful than anything else.
But let’s address something that really stands out to me about xG90. Whilst Peter Hoeg talks extensively about the idea that using expected goals offers an edge, we aren’t really told how he utilises this. That is a point of huge concern for me. I don’t expect a detailed breakdown of all of this, but something would go a long way. Instead, we are simply told that the picks have a certain “power rating” that dictates their likely success.
There is a theoretical saving grace in the fact that there is proofing provided for xG90. But it is noteworthy that this only runs for the last season with no updates since then. That is something that I’d say isn’t inherently a problem, but given the lack of… well, much else really. It just serves to be an additional point of concern.
What is the Initial Investment?
There are two options available if you want to sign up to xG90. The first of these is a half season subscription. The other is “xG90 PRO”. This gives you access to selections for the full season including bonus bets for the Champions League as well as domestic cups. As you might expect, there is some disparity in price, but it isn’t as extreme as you might expect either.
Firstly, the basic option is priced at just £59. This is a one time cost and is supposedly a pretty significant reduction on the MSRP of £99. The xG90 Pro package is slightly more expensive with Peter Hoeg asking for £79. This is also supposedly discounted from the MSRP of £129. Of note is that both of these are referred to as limited time offers, yet still seem to be operational.
Finally, there is a 30 day money back guarantee that is offered. What is noteworthy here though is that it appears to be a vendor backed thing. Peter Hoeg seems to be selling xG90 through a proprietary payment platform which means that ultimately, you’re just taking their word on this.
What is the Rate of Return?
Over the 2020/21 season, Peter Hoeg claims that he made almost £21,000 to £100 stakes. In theory, that seems believable enough. You’d be looking at a profit there of some 210 points. That would be decent, but not prolific for a tipster service. On paper, the claimed result for xG90 aren’t outside of the realm of possibility.
But that isn’t the thing that I want to talk about really. Because coming back to that headline, we are told that you can guarantee £10,981 profit this season with xG90. The thing is, I don’t see how you can guarantee anything like that. There is no insight into things like the stakes involved or… well, anything.
Conclusion for xG90
If you look at xG90, it looks like a decent service. Peter Hoeg is doing everything right on paper. He talks about what the selection process entails (at least, a little bit), there is proofing provided (sort of), and a decent amount of data and numbers that we can look at to get an understanding of what this is all about. In theory, this should be plenty enough. But there are just a few things that are red flags to me.
Firstly, let’s talk about expected goals. They area undoubtedly an invaluable tool for monitoring player performance, and to a lesser degree, a team as a whole. Ultimately though, it is just another measure of form if you ask me. Especially when it comes to looking at attacking players where this sort of statistic is at its most valuable. What it isn’t, is a crystal ball.
And building on this, I do find myself questioning the bet types. Peter Hoeg talks about a whole host of betting markets, mostly goal based. If you’re using expected goals as a measurement of success, then surely xG90 would be better built around those than backing a team to win. Teams who are converting a lot, BTTS bets. A striker who is performing well above expectations, over goals markets. That seems like the synergy.
Now, I’m not saying that there isn’t any merit to what Peter Hoeg is doing. I’d have just liked to understand a bit more why he’s taking an approach that is somewhat at odds with the core premise of the system. There could be some secretive reason, or, it could just be that someone has noticed a marketing angle and xG90 is the result.
Unfortunately, this latter suggestion does rather fit in with the notion of Peter Hoeg guaranteeing a certain income for xG90. It ties in with the convenient way that the sales page isn’t actually kept updated. Instead, there is that focus on showing past results. It’s all just a bit concerning.
It isn’t even like I think that this is particularly cheap. Sure, it might be big picture (you’re looking at paying less than £10 per month), but that is tied to quite significant outlay and a money back guarantee that in my opinion, is only really worth the paper it’s printed on. Had Peter Hoeg done more, these feats might be allayed. But what I’ve seen of xG90 doesn’t tie in with the picture painted in the sales material.
Ultimately, all of that is more than enough to put me off. Everything about xG90 is just… well, it’s a bit questionable. Peter Hoeg of course does little to actually allay these fears. Instead, there is a focus on how an idea is enough to warrant a service. As somebody who has been about in this industry, I can tell you now that it isn’t. The fact is that expected goals, whilst a valuable tool, is still just that. And without the rest of the toolbox, it doesn’t count for much.