Football Lay Tips is a new to market sports betting tipster service which is offered by Jonathon Fox. He claims to be a long time professional sports bettor who now wishes to share his tips with others.
Introduction to Football Lay Tips
One of the things that I think is undeniably interesting about betting is that there are just so many different ways you can approach the subject. There are different sports, there are different bet types, and within those bet types there are potentially hundreds of different betting markets. Honestly, it is quite exciting when you really start to consider it.
With that said, not all of those bets are created equal. And if there is one area where I have been long seeking a genuinely decent product, it is a lay betting service. In theory, a decent lay betting service has the potential to offer minimal risk and consistent profits. These are both things that any serious bettor should be looking for.
Enter today’s subject, Football Lay Tips by Jonathon Fox. There are some impressive looking, but also very believable, claims that are made. In fact, if he can deliver on everything, the only real criticism I could have with Football Lay Tips is that because it is football based, it is a little bit seasonal. So, is this going to be the game changer I’ve been looking for? Let’s dive right in and have a look.
What Does Football Lay Tips Offer?
I always love it when a tipster service tells you what it gives you in the name of the service. When you boil it all down, what Jonathon Fox is offering is right there in the name of Football Lay Tips. The fact that he is able to do this should tell you straight away that you are dealing with an incredibly straight forward service.
In and of itself, that is not a bad thing. Believe me when I tell you that I have seen more than enough tipster services which have been built on the back of some ludicrously convoluted approach. They can be difficult to follow, risky, and often don’t warrant the time and effort.
So, it goes without saying that what you are getting from Football Lay Tips is a near daily lay betting tipster service. Jonathon Fox bets on a wide range of top flight European football leagues as well as the English Championship.
This allows for a large number of bets to be identified, and Jonathon Fox definitely does this. Whilst I will say that Football Lay Tips is not a consistently high volume tipster service, over weekends you can expect to see days that will involve laying upwards of 15 bets. This creates a very substantial risk problem that I will discuss later.
On the topic of risk, I want to talk about the odds that are involved with Football Lay Tips. Jonathon Fox says that he likes to keep odds low, and that isn’t too far from the truth according to the proofing. But, lay betting involves using Betfair. And the odds can move very quickly. As such, there are no guarantees on those odds.
In terms of the logistical side of things, Football Lay Tips is very much what you would expect from a modern tipster service. Selections are issued on a near daily basis (there are no bet days with his service), directly via email.
Jonathon Fox says that he typically sends them out “the night before or the morning of the matches”. He also says in the sales material for Football Lay Tips that he aims to give a minimum of 12 hours, however this isn’t something that is always achieved, at least, from what I have seen.
This can sometimes leave a relatively short window to get bets layed which can be problematic. I have already mentioned it, but odds can move quickly, and as such, you can end up over stretching your liability by not being able to get those lower odds.
Moving away from the management side of things, I want to talk a little about Jonathon Fox’s staking plan. As is very much typical when it comes to lay betting, all bets are advised to be backed to level stakes.
The important thing to keep in mind however is that with lay betting, your liability isn’t just your stake. If you lay a bet at £10, all that does is dictate how much you would pay out in the case of a bet losing. Something that in theory, shouldn’t happen often when it comes to lay betting.
This brings me to the strike rate for Football Lay Tips. Now, this is where a lay betting tipster service should come into its own. After all, it goes without saying that it is easier to let somebody else be wrong than you being right.
And, this is very much the case. Jonathon Fox’s proofing a strike rate that comes in at some 86% which is a very strong number. I do however have some doubts about this that I will discuss a little later on.
How Does Football Lay Tips Work?
So far, I can very much see the appeal behind Football Lay Tips. Jonathon Fox has some very good looking numbers, even if I do have reasonable grounds to doubt them. Unfortunately, what we don’t really get is any insight into what the selection process entails.
Don’t get me wrong, Jonathon Fox does make some very interesting claims. For example, he says that he has “superior knowledge to 99% of punters”. He also makes vague reference to using a “a range of statistical web sites, form guides and as much information as [he] can ge t[his] hands on”.
What the astute amongst you will notice is that this doesn’t actually tell us anything. Sure, it sounds impressive. I don’t think there is any getting around that. And if I didn’t know any better, I would combine that statement with the result and feel pretty confident I was on to a winner. Especially with the proofing included.
On top of this, we are pushed the usual agenda that you so often see when it comes to lay betting. This kind of service often comes with the idea that it is self evident that simply using lay bets is a strategy in and of itself. In the case of Football Lay Tips, Jonathon Fox also makes more vague but impressive sounding statements.
These include things like referring to himself as basically stealing from unsuspecting punters and saying that Betfair allows you to “act as the bookmaker”. This latter statement is one that I see getting dragged out quite often, however I feel that it is often used erroneously (including with Football Lay Tips).
Frankly, all of this simply seems like an exercise in marketing rather than a genuine tipster service. This is a point that will become pertinent later on.
What is the Initial Investment?
There are two options that are available if you want to subscribe to Football Lay Tips. The first of theses is a 3 month membership for which Jonathon Fox is asking a one time payment of £45 plus VAT. It is noteworthy that this isn’t actually a subscription.
Alternatively, and very clearly representing much better value, Jonathon Fox says that you can sign up for the next 8 months (the rest of the season) for just £77 plus VAT.
Now, it is worth keeping in mind that both of these options come with a full 60 day money back guarantee as Football Lay Tips is ultimately sold through Clickbank. To be fair to Jonathon Fox, this is something that is well advertised in the sales material.
What is the Rate of Return?
In terms of the income potential, things are all relatively straight forward. Jonathon Fox claims that if you had been betting to £20 stakes, you would have made a profit of £7,168.20. Alternatively, if you were to stake £50, you would be looking at £18,068.20.
For context, these numbers mean an actual points profit of 361.36 points. Given that Jonathon Fox has been proofing Football Lay Tips since August last year, it is quite apparent that this represents a pretty decent return. Something which is backed up by the ROI of 48.89%, a phenomenal number to have attained over a year.
Conclusion for Football Lay Tips
There are a few different points that I wanted to return to with Football Lay Tips, and I think that it is only reasonable to start by addressing these. First of all, I want to talk about the idea that this may actually be a service that comes from an internet marketer rather than a genuine tipster.
Now I wouldn’t typically open with this, but I can’t help but feel like it given how reasonable a lot of Football Lay Tips seems to be, it is important to ascertain exactly why I feel the way I do about the service. And the answer to this is quite simple. I am very familiar with the vendor who is selling the service, and I am familiar with them for putting out a number of other tipster services.
Not surprisingly, these tipster services have been quietly shut down as hey haven’t been able to produce results with any kind of consistency. Does this mean that Football Lay Tips is inherently condemned to the same outcome? No, of course not, but it does seem pretty likely.
This is the core reasoning why I find the strike rate and proofing to be slightly questionable. The fact is that I have looked at a lot of tipster services that are lay betting based and a high strike rate is very much a symptom of them. So, it fits right?
The problem that I have here is that 86% is genuinely quite unbelievable. Especially when you consider the odds that are involved, as well as the fact you are laying football. 86% on horse racing where you have to pick one horse out of eight. But with football, you are only gaining an edge by covering two out three possible outcomes.
What I am getting at here is that it all just seems to be a bit manufactured and that is definitely a concern. Especially when combined with the elements that I have already mentioned.
But even putting all of that aside, let’s come back to the topic of risk. When you are laying bets, you need to a liability available based off the odds that you are betting on. If you are setting up 15 bets in a day, that is a lot of money that you have to have in your betting bank, and if just a few of those fail to come in, it can massively impact your profit and loss.
Here’s the bottom line with Football Lay Tips. I will admit that Jonathon Fox has done a very good job of making a convincing service. If I didn’t know better, I would be very impressed with what is on offer here. But I do know better.
The results look great, but as somebody who looks at these things all day, I can say that they are a little too great. If that isn’t enough for you, ask yourself why there is such a substantial gap in proofing? Almost as if somebody has compiled a spreadsheet for historic results, only to stop when the new season has started and they aren’t able to retrospectively pick winners.
I’m not saying that this is 100% the case, but given the rest of the elements that surround Football Lay Tips, I don’t think it is an unreasonable thing to ponder. And honestly, it is the elements like this that really lead me to say that I wouldn’t recommend Football Lay Tips.
Everything is just a little bit too conveniently good, by which I mean, it is good enough to impress, but small enough to be believable. Coming from a larger tipster stable or a well known independent tipster, I might buy into that. But given all that back end stuff that surrounds Football Lay Tips and Jonathon Fox, I can’t bring myself to invest more time and effort than I already have.